After predicting the Derby trifecta, I'm sure the racing gods will punish me royally with an 0-fer in the second leg of the Triple Crown, but let's give it a shot anyway:
1. Mucho Macho Man. I know a lot of people don't like him to win, but I have a feeling this could be his coming out party. He always shows up (9 for 9 in the superfecta), so he's at least a good key horse. But I think he's learning and growing (remember, he was a June foal), so he could take another step forward in the Preakness. Rajiv Maragh is an underrated rider.
2. Animal Kingdom. I won't like his odds, after getting him at 20-1 in the Derby, but he's a well-bred, well-trained, well-ridden "animal" in peak form. The Preakness is normally not a longshot- fest like the Derby can be - runners who score in the Derby usually come back with another good performance in the Preakness. Between Kingdom and Dialed In, I like the Kingdom better.
3. Sway Away. He's the "new shooter" with the best chance, in my opinion. He missed getting into the Derby because Uncle Mo's connections waited until after the post position draw to scratch. He comes out of the best Derby prep race - the Arkansas Derby. His dad, Afleet Alex, won the Preakness. He's been training very well leading up to this for an underrated trainer in Jeff Bonde. Plus, he gets a very clutch jockey in Garrett Gomez. Lots to like.
4. King Congie. My "bombs away" longshot play. He should be at least 20-1 because his only two races on dirt were terrible. But they were his first two races, and they were both sprints. In his four longer races since then, he's hit the tri every time, and he has a pretty decent dirt pedigree (by Badge of Silver). If there's enough speed early on, don't be surprised to see King Congie moving swiftly in the stretch.
Good luck today and enjoy!
Saturday, May 21, 2011
Monday, May 9, 2011
My journey to get to Derby 137
This is a piece published on the Paulick Report Monday about my experience at Kentucky Derby 137 (complete with video):
My journey to get to the 2011 Kentucky Derby started and ended with a trifecta.
I was living in Los Angeles in May of 2006, when I decided it might be fun to go to Hollywood Park and bet the Derby. I had watched its annual running my whole life and always enjoyed the idea of trying to pick the winner, but I had never even been to a racetrack. It's funny how a simple Saturday morning decision like that can change everything.
One of the first bets I placed was a straight trifecta on one of the live races at Hollywood Park. I had no idea what I was doing. I just looked at the program and picked three horses in random order. I could hardly breathe when I saw them cross the finish line one-two-three for a $400 payoff. Little did I know, horse racing had just sunk its teeth into me forever.
I started going to the track on a regular basis and quickly discovered that I had been a "victim" of beginner's luck. Duplicating the trifecta score proved impossible, so I scoured the bookstores and Internet for every book I could find on handicapping. While I home-schooled on "Betting Thoroughbreds," "The Winning Horseplayer" and "Exotic Betting," my interest in the game grew in other ways as I waded deeper into racing's history and culture with another set of books - "Three Strides Before the Wire," "Laughing in the Hills," "Scared Money" and many others.
In 2009, while Animal Kingdom, Nehro and Mucho Macho Man were still yearlings frolicking in their pastures, I was thinking about Kentucky Derby 137. My passion for racing had blossomed into what I'm sure many would consider an obsession. I was working as a host for the public radio business show, Marketplace, but my heart was drifting from my broadcast journalism career to what I believed might be a second calling. I researched the possibility of going to school (could there be such a thing??) for a career in horse racing.
It turns out there were two programs that offered what I was looking for. One was at the University of Arizona; the other at the University of Louisville. I'm more of a Midwesterner/Southerner at heart than a desert guy, so I told my future wife, Megan (who discovered the Louisville program), let's go for it.
The next year was filled with a lot of online classes, anticipation and angst in preparation for a move to Kentucky that held great uncertainty. I entered the Louisville Equine Industry program in August of 2010 and have worked non-stop ever since to reach my goal - graduation and the Kentucky Derby in May.
So, on Saturday, when I stood on the balcony of the press box and heard My Old Kentucky Home performed live at Churchill Downs for the first time in my life, it was a tearful moment I will never forget. Thanks to my affiliation with the Paulick Report, I had the opportunity to go onto the track during a couple of races and capture on video the beauty, excitement and tradition that is Derby day.
While I had been to Churchill many times over the past year, I felt like I was in the tear-jerking sports movie "Rudy" when his father walks into Notre Dame's football stadium for the first time: "This is the most beautiful sight these eyes have ever seen."
I was getting swept up in the emotion of Derby day, but one thing I'd learned losing lots of money on big racing days was to stay focused, think practically and have conviction when it came to betting. With that in mind, I finalized my Derby picks. After months of watching prep races, talking to people on the backstretch, reading and hearing many opinions, I could not let ruinous last-minute doubts creep in (as they had many times before) and throw me off.
My friend and fellow equine student Michael Vesce (the Paulick Report's new weekend editor!) had been going over the field for weeks together, and we had settled on five choices: Archarcharch, Nehro, Mucho Macho Man, Animal Kingdom and Shackleford. We felt the Arkansas Derby was the strongest prep race, and the performances of Shackleford and Animal Kingdom in the Florida Derby and Vinery Spiral were eye-catching.
I decided to go with Nehro on top because it simply made sense - Jockey Corey Nakatani looked in the zone, Nehro had the right running style for the way the track was playing, and while he appeared to be a "wise guy" play earlier, he wasn't getting overbet on Derby day. I put Mucho Macho Man in second because despite him being a June foal and looking like a still-developing colt, he just always showed up, and I like those kind. I slotted Animal Kingdom in third. True, he hadn't run on dirt, but he looked fantastic on the surface in the mornings, and veteran clocker Bruno De Julio had been talking him up since last October, and I respected his opinion. At 20-1, it was worth a win bet and some other plays. I decided Archarcharch having a first-time Derby jockey and the one post were too much to overcome. But I would use him and Shackleford underneath.
I posted my trifecta pick on the Paulick Report live blog and placed my bets online. But I realized with about two minutes to post that I hadn't done a simple trifecta box with my three choices - an instinct born of frustrating past experiences no doubt. So I went to the self-service machine in the press box and punched it in. Another one of those little decisions...
I stood out on the press box balcony and took a deep breath as the horses loaded. I had done it. I had put in all that work to get here. I was about to graduate from the equine program. I had secured a job in the industry and was embarking on a new career. My wife had taken a leap of faith with me, neither of us knowing how this crazy idea would turn out. And the gates were about to open on the Kentucky Derby I'd been fantasizing about for more than two years.
I wasn't even thinking about my bets. I was going to feel like a winner regardless. But as they turned into the stretch, and track announcer Mark Johnson was belting out Nehro's strong move into the lane, my heart leapt into my throat. Then, I heard "Animal Kingdom." I could barely see what was going on, but I knew something good was happening. When they crossed the finish line in my first live Derby, I was overcome with emotion. And oh yeah, I probably made a nice little score with the win on Animal Kingdom and the exacta with Nehro. I couldn't see who finished third.
I went back into the press box and sat down to start writing the story, too overwhelmed with the moment to think straight. I asked Brad Cummings, by the way, who was third? Mucho Macho Man, he said.
I had called the top three finishers and had the trifecta twice. Every Derby I had ever bet before Saturday, I'd never hit a thing. I had watched other people make big scores, dreaming that one day, it would be my turn. And to have it happen on this particular day and this particular Derby, was more satisfying than I can put into words.
I later learned that Michael Vesce, the Paulick Report's newest employee, had pooled money with a couple of friends and played the superfecta with our key horses. They hit it for $24,063.
Like me, Vesce had followed his passion and had worked tirelessly in the Equine Industry program and in other ways to start a career in the business. Needless to say, we celebrated the next two nights and for the first time since I abandoned my comfortable radio salary in California to pile on school debt, I wasn't worried about the check.
The Paulick Report must bring good karma.
And I guess that old saying is true: "The best things in life come in threes, like friends, dreams, and memories."
Coming here to Kentucky, I definitely hit that trifecta.
My journey to get to the 2011 Kentucky Derby started and ended with a trifecta.
I was living in Los Angeles in May of 2006, when I decided it might be fun to go to Hollywood Park and bet the Derby. I had watched its annual running my whole life and always enjoyed the idea of trying to pick the winner, but I had never even been to a racetrack. It's funny how a simple Saturday morning decision like that can change everything.
One of the first bets I placed was a straight trifecta on one of the live races at Hollywood Park. I had no idea what I was doing. I just looked at the program and picked three horses in random order. I could hardly breathe when I saw them cross the finish line one-two-three for a $400 payoff. Little did I know, horse racing had just sunk its teeth into me forever.
I started going to the track on a regular basis and quickly discovered that I had been a "victim" of beginner's luck. Duplicating the trifecta score proved impossible, so I scoured the bookstores and Internet for every book I could find on handicapping. While I home-schooled on "Betting Thoroughbreds," "The Winning Horseplayer" and "Exotic Betting," my interest in the game grew in other ways as I waded deeper into racing's history and culture with another set of books - "Three Strides Before the Wire," "Laughing in the Hills," "Scared Money" and many others.
In 2009, while Animal Kingdom, Nehro and Mucho Macho Man were still yearlings frolicking in their pastures, I was thinking about Kentucky Derby 137. My passion for racing had blossomed into what I'm sure many would consider an obsession. I was working as a host for the public radio business show, Marketplace, but my heart was drifting from my broadcast journalism career to what I believed might be a second calling. I researched the possibility of going to school (could there be such a thing??) for a career in horse racing.
It turns out there were two programs that offered what I was looking for. One was at the University of Arizona; the other at the University of Louisville. I'm more of a Midwesterner/Southerner at heart than a desert guy, so I told my future wife, Megan (who discovered the Louisville program), let's go for it.
The next year was filled with a lot of online classes, anticipation and angst in preparation for a move to Kentucky that held great uncertainty. I entered the Louisville Equine Industry program in August of 2010 and have worked non-stop ever since to reach my goal - graduation and the Kentucky Derby in May.
So, on Saturday, when I stood on the balcony of the press box and heard My Old Kentucky Home performed live at Churchill Downs for the first time in my life, it was a tearful moment I will never forget. Thanks to my affiliation with the Paulick Report, I had the opportunity to go onto the track during a couple of races and capture on video the beauty, excitement and tradition that is Derby day.
While I had been to Churchill many times over the past year, I felt like I was in the tear-jerking sports movie "Rudy" when his father walks into Notre Dame's football stadium for the first time: "This is the most beautiful sight these eyes have ever seen."
I was getting swept up in the emotion of Derby day, but one thing I'd learned losing lots of money on big racing days was to stay focused, think practically and have conviction when it came to betting. With that in mind, I finalized my Derby picks. After months of watching prep races, talking to people on the backstretch, reading and hearing many opinions, I could not let ruinous last-minute doubts creep in (as they had many times before) and throw me off.
My friend and fellow equine student Michael Vesce (the Paulick Report's new weekend editor!) had been going over the field for weeks together, and we had settled on five choices: Archarcharch, Nehro, Mucho Macho Man, Animal Kingdom and Shackleford. We felt the Arkansas Derby was the strongest prep race, and the performances of Shackleford and Animal Kingdom in the Florida Derby and Vinery Spiral were eye-catching.
I decided to go with Nehro on top because it simply made sense - Jockey Corey Nakatani looked in the zone, Nehro had the right running style for the way the track was playing, and while he appeared to be a "wise guy" play earlier, he wasn't getting overbet on Derby day. I put Mucho Macho Man in second because despite him being a June foal and looking like a still-developing colt, he just always showed up, and I like those kind. I slotted Animal Kingdom in third. True, he hadn't run on dirt, but he looked fantastic on the surface in the mornings, and veteran clocker Bruno De Julio had been talking him up since last October, and I respected his opinion. At 20-1, it was worth a win bet and some other plays. I decided Archarcharch having a first-time Derby jockey and the one post were too much to overcome. But I would use him and Shackleford underneath.
I posted my trifecta pick on the Paulick Report live blog and placed my bets online. But I realized with about two minutes to post that I hadn't done a simple trifecta box with my three choices - an instinct born of frustrating past experiences no doubt. So I went to the self-service machine in the press box and punched it in. Another one of those little decisions...
I stood out on the press box balcony and took a deep breath as the horses loaded. I had done it. I had put in all that work to get here. I was about to graduate from the equine program. I had secured a job in the industry and was embarking on a new career. My wife had taken a leap of faith with me, neither of us knowing how this crazy idea would turn out. And the gates were about to open on the Kentucky Derby I'd been fantasizing about for more than two years.
I wasn't even thinking about my bets. I was going to feel like a winner regardless. But as they turned into the stretch, and track announcer Mark Johnson was belting out Nehro's strong move into the lane, my heart leapt into my throat. Then, I heard "Animal Kingdom." I could barely see what was going on, but I knew something good was happening. When they crossed the finish line in my first live Derby, I was overcome with emotion. And oh yeah, I probably made a nice little score with the win on Animal Kingdom and the exacta with Nehro. I couldn't see who finished third.
I went back into the press box and sat down to start writing the story, too overwhelmed with the moment to think straight. I asked Brad Cummings, by the way, who was third? Mucho Macho Man, he said.
I had called the top three finishers and had the trifecta twice. Every Derby I had ever bet before Saturday, I'd never hit a thing. I had watched other people make big scores, dreaming that one day, it would be my turn. And to have it happen on this particular day and this particular Derby, was more satisfying than I can put into words.
I later learned that Michael Vesce, the Paulick Report's newest employee, had pooled money with a couple of friends and played the superfecta with our key horses. They hit it for $24,063.
Like me, Vesce had followed his passion and had worked tirelessly in the Equine Industry program and in other ways to start a career in the business. Needless to say, we celebrated the next two nights and for the first time since I abandoned my comfortable radio salary in California to pile on school debt, I wasn't worried about the check.
The Paulick Report must bring good karma.
And I guess that old saying is true: "The best things in life come in threes, like friends, dreams, and memories."
Coming here to Kentucky, I definitely hit that trifecta.
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