Horsepuckey

On the Newmarket

2011-06-24T16:40:00.000-07:00

In case you haven't seen my latest posts for the Paulick Report from England and Ireland, click here for my trip to Royal Ascot, a trip the gorgeous training and breeding farms in central England and a journey to the Headquarters of Horse Racing at Newmarket.

My bookie is a middle-aged woman

2011-06-16T17:43:00.000-07:00

I've landed in the UK for two weeks of horse racing adventures that I'm chronicling for the Paulick Report in a series called Tattersalls presents An American Invader in the UK. Read my day one diary from London here. Among other things, I talk about my first bet with a bookie and the differences between the wagering systems in the U.S. and Britain.

A couple of non-racing things I didn't mention in the piece: I stopped at the Household Calvary Museum, which highlights the Royal Horse Guards, who provide the Queen's escort on ceremonial occasions as well as serve in battle. These young people - some of whom have never even ridden a horse before - go through 20 weeks of intensive training on horseback, and it is not uncommon for them to be thrown several times before getting the hang of it. Most of the horses are black, and there's a reason for this. Apparently, King Charles II, who was very instrumental in developing the modern sport of horse racing, thought black horses looked more intimidating in battle, and so his royal horses were black. The tradition continues.

While at the House of Parliament, our group from the University of Louisville's Equine Industry Program also sat in on a House of Commons session. There are 650 members in the House of Commons, which is Britain's equivalent to the House of Representatives. There are another 789 members of the House of Lords - a rough parallel to the US Senate, although the Lords aren't elected. Can you imagine if Congress, instead of 535 members, had 1,439?? Somehow, the system seems to work for the UK, I guess. But I thought it was interesting that Commons members can only spend 12,000 pounds each on their election campaigns (about $24,000 U.S.). No TV ads for these ladies and gents! Just good ole fashioned door-to-door campaigning. Attention Washington...

We spoke with a member of the House of Commons, Bill Wiggin, who shared stories of Parliament's Westminster Hall, which was built in 1099. I stood in the very spot where King Charles I was sentenced to death in 1649 and then taken a few blocks away for his beheading. Wiggin also told us that during a renovation of the Hall, they found tennis balls hit by King Henry VIII. The history is so thick in these places, you can almost feel the ghosts.

Wiggin's assistant got us passes to sit in on the Commons session, and Wiggin himself told us we shouldn't stay any longer than the point where we'd "lost the will to live" from the boredom. Turns out, that was about 20 minutes. Unlike the US Congress, where the seating is semi-circular, in the House of Commons, the two parties sit directly across from each other, which was by design. They found it facilitated more direct discussion and confrontation. We witnessed an example of this when a woman from the Labour Party argued with a member of the Conservative Party over the length of their speeches earlier this week. After the woman commented on the length of the man's speech, the Conservative argued that no, no, his speech was definitely shorter than hers. The woman shot back that while, in length, her speech was shorter, it lasted longer because it was more engaging than her opposite's speech, soliciting more opinions from others. The pressing matters of the British government could certainly wait while this dispute was resolved.

The day was topped off by a plate of lasagna that I can say with complete certainty resembled lasagna the way Bill Clinton resembles George Bush. The pasta slices were filled in with salad, beets and broccoli.

I'm counting the hours until we visit Royal Ascot Saturday.

Preakness Picks

2011-05-21T10:24:00.000-07:00

After predicting the Derby trifecta, I'm sure the racing gods will punish me royally with an 0-fer in the second leg of the Triple Crown, but let's give it a shot anyway:

1. Mucho Macho Man. I know a lot of people don't like him to win, but I have a feeling this could be his coming out party. He always shows up (9 for 9 in the superfecta), so he's at least a good key horse. But I think he's learning and growing (remember, he was a June foal), so he could take another step forward in the Preakness. Rajiv Maragh is an underrated rider.

2. Animal Kingdom. I won't like his odds, after getting him at 20-1 in the Derby, but he's a well-bred, well-trained, well-ridden "animal" in peak form. The Preakness is normally not a longshot- fest like the Derby can be - runners who score in the Derby usually come back with another good performance in the Preakness. Between Kingdom and Dialed In, I like the Kingdom better.

3. Sway Away. He's the "new shooter" with the best chance, in my opinion. He missed getting into the Derby because Uncle Mo's connections waited until after the post position draw to scratch. He comes out of the best Derby prep race - the Arkansas Derby. His dad, Afleet Alex, won the Preakness. He's been training very well leading up to this for an underrated trainer in Jeff Bonde. Plus, he gets a very clutch jockey in Garrett Gomez. Lots to like.

4. King Congie. My "bombs away" longshot play. He should be at least 20-1 because his only two races on dirt were terrible. But they were his first two races, and they were both sprints. In his four longer races since then, he's hit the tri every time, and he has a pretty decent dirt pedigree (by Badge of Silver). If there's enough speed early on, don't be surprised to see King Congie moving swiftly in the stretch.

Good luck today and enjoy!

My journey to get to Derby 137

2011-05-09T21:19:00.000-07:00

This is a piece published on the Paulick Report Monday about my experience at Kentucky Derby 137 (complete with video):

My journey to get to the 2011 Kentucky Derby started and ended with a trifecta.

I was living in Los Angeles in May of 2006, when I decided it might be fun to go to Hollywood Park and bet the Derby. I had watched its annual running my whole life and always enjoyed the idea of trying to pick the winner, but I had never even been to a racetrack. It's funny how a simple Saturday morning decision like that can change everything.

One of the first bets I placed was a straight trifecta on one of the live races at Hollywood Park. I had no idea what I was doing. I just looked at the program and picked three horses in random order. I could hardly breathe when I saw them cross the finish line one-two-three for a $400 payoff. Little did I know, horse racing had just sunk its teeth into me forever.

I started going to the track on a regular basis and quickly discovered that I had been a "victim" of beginner's luck. Duplicating the trifecta score proved impossible, so I scoured the bookstores and Internet for every book I could find on handicapping. While I home-schooled on "Betting Thoroughbreds," "The Winning Horseplayer" and "Exotic Betting," my interest in the game grew in other ways as I waded deeper into racing's history and culture with another set of books - "Three Strides Before the Wire," "Laughing in the Hills," "Scared Money" and many others.

In 2009, while Animal Kingdom, Nehro and Mucho Macho Man were still yearlings frolicking in their pastures, I was thinking about Kentucky Derby 137. My passion for racing had blossomed into what I'm sure many would consider an obsession. I was working as a host for the public radio business show, Marketplace, but my heart was drifting from my broadcast journalism career to what I believed might be a second calling. I researched the possibility of going to school (could there be such a thing??) for a career in horse racing.

It turns out there were two programs that offered what I was looking for. One was at the University of Arizona; the other at the University of Louisville. I'm more of a Midwesterner/Southerner at heart than a desert guy, so I told my future wife, Megan (who discovered the Louisville program), let's go for it.

The next year was filled with a lot of online classes, anticipation and angst in preparation for a move to Kentucky that held great uncertainty. I entered the Louisville Equine Industry program in August of 2010 and have worked non-stop ever since to reach my goal - graduation and the Kentucky Derby in May.

So, on Saturday, when I stood on the balcony of the press box and heard My Old Kentucky Home performed live at Churchill Downs for the first time in my life, it was a tearful moment I will never forget. Thanks to my affiliation with the Paulick Report, I had the opportunity to go onto the track during a couple of races and capture on video the beauty, excitement and tradition that is Derby day.

While I had been to Churchill many times over the past year, I felt like I was in the tear-jerking sports movie "Rudy" when his father walks into Notre Dame's football stadium for the first time: "This is the most beautiful sight these eyes have ever seen."

I was getting swept up in the emotion of Derby day, but one thing I'd learned losing lots of money on big racing days was to stay focused, think practically and have conviction when it came to betting. With that in mind, I finalized my Derby picks. After months of watching prep races, talking to people on the backstretch, reading and hearing many opinions, I could not let ruinous last-minute doubts creep in (as they had many times before) and throw me off.

My friend and fellow equine student Michael Vesce (the Paulick Report's new weekend editor!) had been going over the field for weeks together, and we had settled on five choices: Archarcharch, Nehro, Mucho Macho Man, Animal Kingdom and Shackleford. We felt the Arkansas Derby was the strongest prep race, and the performances of Shackleford and Animal Kingdom in the Florida Derby and Vinery Spiral were eye-catching.

I decided to go with Nehro on top because it simply made sense - Jockey Corey Nakatani looked in the zone, Nehro had the right running style for the way the track was playing, and while he appeared to be a "wise guy" play earlier, he wasn't getting overbet on Derby day. I put Mucho Macho Man in second because despite him being a June foal and looking like a still-developing colt, he just always showed up, and I like those kind. I slotted Animal Kingdom in third. True, he hadn't run on dirt, but he looked fantastic on the surface in the mornings, and veteran clocker Bruno De Julio had been talking him up since last October, and I respected his opinion. At 20-1, it was worth a win bet and some other plays. I decided Archarcharch having a first-time Derby jockey and the one post were too much to overcome. But I would use him and Shackleford underneath.

I posted my trifecta pick on the Paulick Report live blog and placed my bets online. But I realized with about two minutes to post that I hadn't done a simple trifecta box with my three choices - an instinct born of frustrating past experiences no doubt. So I went to the self-service machine in the press box and punched it in. Another one of those little decisions...

I stood out on the press box balcony and took a deep breath as the horses loaded. I had done it. I had put in all that work to get here. I was about to graduate from the equine program. I had secured a job in the industry and was embarking on a new career. My wife had taken a leap of faith with me, neither of us knowing how this crazy idea would turn out. And the gates were about to open on the Kentucky Derby I'd been fantasizing about for more than two years.

I wasn't even thinking about my bets. I was going to feel like a winner regardless. But as they turned into the stretch, and track announcer Mark Johnson was belting out Nehro's strong move into the lane, my heart leapt into my throat. Then, I heard "Animal Kingdom." I could barely see what was going on, but I knew something good was happening. When they crossed the finish line in my first live Derby, I was overcome with emotion. And oh yeah, I probably made a nice little score with the win on Animal Kingdom and the exacta with Nehro. I couldn't see who finished third.

I went back into the press box and sat down to start writing the story, too overwhelmed with the moment to think straight. I asked Brad Cummings, by the way, who was third? Mucho Macho Man, he said.

I had called the top three finishers and had the trifecta twice. Every Derby I had ever bet before Saturday, I'd never hit a thing. I had watched other people make big scores, dreaming that one day, it would be my turn. And to have it happen on this particular day and this particular Derby, was more satisfying than I can put into words.

I later learned that Michael Vesce, the Paulick Report's newest employee, had pooled money with a couple of friends and played the superfecta with our key horses. They hit it for $24,063.

Like me, Vesce had followed his passion and had worked tirelessly in the Equine Industry program and in other ways to start a career in the business. Needless to say, we celebrated the next two nights and for the first time since I abandoned my comfortable radio salary in California to pile on school debt, I wasn't worried about the check.

The Paulick Report must bring good karma.

And I guess that old saying is true: "The best things in life come in threes, like friends, dreams, and memories."

Coming here to Kentucky, I definitely hit that trifecta.

How many mint juleps will it take?

2011-04-26T21:37:00.000-07:00

It's starting to get a nuts here in Louisville, and that is fitting for Kentucky Derby 137 because this Derby field is driving everyone crazy. I'm beginning to wonder how many mint juleps it'll take to make the 2011 crop of three-year-olds look good to anyone.

Last night, we had a Derby handicapping session at the University of Louisville Equine Business program, where I am at the eighth pole (graduating in mid-May). Our panel of guest handicappers included Churchill Downs track announcer Mark Johnson and paddock host Jill Byrne, and the overwhelming consensus was that the Derby ought to consider allowing donkeys into the race this year because they might run faster.

Personally, I think it's a bit premature to characterize this entire lot of three-year-olds as a bunch of of mules, but the prep races certainly haven't inspired a whole lot of confidence.

And it's still the Kentucky Derby, the world's most famous horse race. So here's a week-and-a-half-before-the-race breakdown of the Derby contenders, based on the panel discussion, my own opinions after having watched every single Derby prep more than once and on having access to observers closely watching the workouts at Churchill (in no particular order except the first two):

Dialed In: If there is a Triple Crown winner in this group, he is it. Mark Johnson said every once and while he has a "tingly" moment where the hair stands up on the back of his neck while he's calling a race, and he had one of those moments during Dialed In's maiden race last fall at Churchill. Sure, the horse looked as green as a shamrock, but Johnson could see Dialed In's natural brilliance.

Dialed In has since learned how to be a racehorse, and perhaps his most valuable race was his only loss - against older horses, which is a very clever move when most three-year-olds only run against their own age. Trainer Nick Zito has kept his colt in Florida, and it may be because he knows he's sitting on a volcano of talent. He doesn't want to screw things up training over the mudbath that is the Churchill Downs racetrack in late April.

Dialed In likes to come from way back, and that is not easy in a field of 20 runners, but he does seem to be a special colt. I like his chances in this field.

Mucho Macho Man: Cue the sentimental music - this guy is the "story" of Derby 137. He was believed dead at birth at the end of the foaling season in June, and he has miraculously recovered to become a solid Derby contender. His performances so far have been nothing short of all-out, gutsy. While he looks terrific in workouts, he still appears to have some growing to do, and guess how many June foals have won the Kentucky Derby?

Zero. Still, I like his toughness. He lost a shoe in the Louisiana Derby and still finished a tight third. He's the type who will run over cut glass, and I'm betting he'll be right there at the finish in the Derby.

Uncle Mo: I went to this shindig a couple weeks ago in Lexington with fellow equine students and other horse industry folks (Bobby Flay showed up for desert, although he didn't prepare it). We all took turns naming our Derby horse, and I was astonished that only one of about 35 people named Uncle Mo. If the dinner had been held two weeks earlier, I daresay 80% of the room would have picked Uncle Mo. How far the mighty have fallen since finishing third in the Wood Memorial.

The quote of the night came from Tim Capps, one of the professors in the Equine Business program. After someone mentioned that Secretariat also finished third in the Wood, Tim said: "Yeah, but a lot of horses have finished third in the Wood, and only one of them was named Secretariat."

Booh-yah.

There's good reason to doubt Uncle Mo, despite the giant expectations that accompanied him on the Derby trail. His pedigree screams Churchill Downs (Indian Charlie and Arch progeny seem to love it), but the same pedigree shouts: "I really don't want to run 1 1/4 miles! Please don't make me!!" Besides, trainer Todd Pletcher has not put enough foundation under this colt, and he just looks like he needs more time. He might crush the Travers in August, but I'm not so sure he's ready for the first Saturday in May.

Archarcharch: That's Arch Arch Arch in case you go cross-eyed trying to read the name. He's pretty gangly and leggy, and if they gave an award for "worst action" to a Derby contender, this might be him. Still, he has shown up consistently of late, and you could do worse in picking a Derby longshot.

Comma To The Top: Seriously, if this horse wins the Kentucky Derby, I will eat a huge plate of beef Beef Stroganoff, which I find to be the most repulsive of foods. As somebody put it, Comma is a lock to win a 350-yard Quarter Horse sprint at Los Alamitos on a Friday night, but the Derby? Forget it.

Pants On Fire: The name suggests he does not have the dignity to be a Kentucky Derby winner. However, his rider will be Rosie Napravnik, and she has been fantastic. A victory would make her the first woman to win the Derby, and it's hard not to root for that. But his running style suggests he will be sucking wind at the top of the stretch and begging to lay down in the infield with all the drunk college kids.

Master of Hounds: Now that's a name that sounds regal. In fact, he would be this year's only European horse in the Derby if he runs, and guess who is being talked about as his jockey??? Yes, that would be Calvin "Churchill Downs is my bitch" Borel, who has won three of the last four Derbies. Master of Hounds was impressive finishing second in the UAE Derby in Dubai, and if he comes over, look out.

Shackleford: If you like Dialed In, you have to take note of this guy. He ran his guts out in the Florida Derby and just got beat by the horse that closes from another zip code. If the pace is "slow" by Derby standards, he might just be around at the end.

Animal Kingdom: While I know some folks who love this guy, he absolutely hated having the Polytrack kicked in his face during the Vinery Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park. How much will he be moaning about Churchill dirt being tossed into his snout? Of course, he won that race at Turfway, and he hasn't run on dirt yet, so those who dismiss him too quickly might be eating crow.

Santiva: The comment that stood out from the panel discussion on Santiva: He still looks like a two-year-old. But I know a few people who are high on him. He just hasn't proven worthy yet.

Soldat: This fellow might be a turf horse, but I cannot count him out. Until his last race, he looked pretty brilliant, and War Front has proven to be a phenomenal sire so far. I don't know that he'll love 1 1/4 miles, but I have a feeling he might show up with better on Derby day.

Nehro: This is without a doubt, the "wise guy" horse for Kentucky Derby 137. He's getting all kinds of love after his impressive performances in the Arkansas and Louisiana Derbies, and perhaps with good reason. He's a Mineshaft colt, and there's nothing wrong with that. He should be coming late. I wouldn't toss him.

Decisive Moment: If Nehro isn't the wise guy, maybe this one is. I hear he's looking great over the Churchill Downs surface, and he has a bold jockey from Louisiana. The question is - will he get cooked in the Derby speed duel? I'd consider him for underneath in the exotics.

I'll leave it at that for now. There are others who might get in, and we still have the post position draw, which is a significant factor in choosing a Derby winner. But we're getting closer, and even though this field might leave something to be desired, you just never know when a horse might step up and make his mark on history. Personally, I can't wait for May 7!

Black Caviar = Dominance

2011-04-08T22:29:00.000-07:00

The four-year-old Australian filly, Black Caviar, is quite simply the best horse in the world at the moment.

Saturday, in the Group 1, $1 million Darley T.J. Smith Stakes, she got her 12th win in 12 lifetime races. She won by nearly three lengths when, in mid-stretch, she pulled a Zenyatta and looked like she wasn't going to get there. But she did, resembling a horse bred on Jupiter or perhaps a planet outside of our solar system.

Once again, the Australian fans turned out in extraordinary numbers, proving that Black Caviar is indeed, the Zenyatta of Australia, as I pointed out in a recent post.

Some responded to that post by questioning Black Caviar's ranking as the world's best because she's a sprinter. At the time, she had also run mostly on straightaways instead of turns. Those were valid questions. But her last two races have both been on turns, and both have been romping victories. Not only that, but Saturday, she ran a clockwise turn and in her previous victory, she won going a counter-clockwise turn.

Her dominance, as measured by the public, is remarkable. At post time of Saturday's race, in the US pools, $95,264 had been bet into the win pool. Black Caviar had $87,903 of that! Here's what that kind of dominance looks like. Even Zenyatta never claimed this kind of tote board:

The exacta pools were equally comical. I think you can tell that Black Caviar is number 7 in the screen shot below. Honestly, I couldn't believe Hay List's exacta price (#1) - he's only the best male sprinter in Australia. It was a fat payday for this blogger, since Hay List finished a well-crushed second.

The question now is whether Black Caviar could get a longer distance - say a mile? That's the province of Goldikova as of now, but I would love to see that matchup. For now, just enjoy and tell your friends about Black Caviar:

Totes McGotes

2011-04-07T12:55:00.000-07:00

While the title is an homage to the soon-to-be-classic film, "I Love You, Man," our topic today is not bromances (sorry, Paul Rudd fans) but instead, the pari-mutuel tote system.

Our speaker this week in the Equine Business program at the University of Louisville was David Ruffra, vice president of sales for United Tote, one of the three companies that process the bets made on U.S. horse racing every day.

The tote system gets its share of criticism, and I'll address that in a moment, plus we'll look at some of the fancy new wagering gadgets the company has developed, but first, let's discuss how the tote (totalisator) system actually works.

When you hand your two bucks to the teller at the track or feed it into the self-service machine or click the mouse at Twinspires.com, your money is transmitted electronically into a complex web of switches, routers, hubs and redundancies. It looks something like this:

Each track controls how often the system is "refreshed" for bettors. United Tote has the capacity to update the odds every second of every race, but at the track, that would look like the tote board was exploding or maybe like Joshua's video meltdown in the 1983 movie, War Games.

Instead, the pools are refreshed every 20 to 30 seconds, so you can actually read the odds. Each odds update is known as a "flash."

The stewards at a given track also have control over when the betting stops. Each stewards' room has a symbolic, if not literal, "red button," which instantaneously ends the wagering. This is why at some tracks, you'll notice you can bet right up until the gates open and at other tracks, you get shut out while they're still loading. It all depends on when the stewards press that button.

You've probably also noticed that the odds change after the race has started. Example: They're running down the backstretch, and the 2-1 favorite suddenly becomes 8-5. This is not because people bet after the gates opened. That is the final 20-30 second "flash." Those wagers came in before the stewards pushed the red button.

However, in very rare cases, the pools are accidentally left open too long. I frequently read criticism by bettors and other parties who seem to think this is a significant, common problem. But the Thoroughbred Racing Protective Bureau's Wagering Security Office screened more than 88,000 races over a year and a half and found 16 examples of past posting, mostly the result of operator error (someone forgetting to push the button or not pushing it hard enough). While one instance is too many, that issue is way overblown by some people.

It could certainly be resolved by every racing jurisdiction agreeing to stop wagering as soon as the first horse loads into the gate. So, at every track, the wagering would stop at precisely the same moment. But there would be none of this waiting until just before the gates open to bet. Is that what bettors want? I'm guessing a lot of bettors like throwing their wagers down just before the gates open. You can't have it both ways. If you don't have a uniform pool closure time set well before the gates open, there will always be the rare mistake that leaves the pools open too long.

I also hear people calling for a complete overhaul of the tote, with a goal of combining all of the tote companies, all of the ADW's like Twinspires and many other functions into one gigantic system. It sounds great in theory to streamline things, but any call for eliminating competition and creating ONE of anything kicks my monopoly/anti-trust radar into high gear.

Our speaker, David Ruffra, made some interesting points. He said the tote companies have the capacity to do virtually anything the industry wants. Whether it's adding proposition betting, "rolling odds" (wagering while the race is going on), instant rebates - the tote companies can do it right now. Ruffra said United is operating at a maximum of seven percent of its CPU capacity. It has 93% left! But any major changes to the way the tote system works will have to be approved by the states. The tote companies have no say in that stuff.

But they are creating new technologies, designed to make the racetrack a more pleasant experience for bettors or to increase security and integrity.

At one point, Ruffra said: "In this business, everyone, given a chance, will steal from you." That's why United Tote has developed biometric recognition software for the teller machines at racetracks. Under this system, the teller must press their thumb into the machine to log on. When they take a break, they give another thumbprint to log off and no one else in the world can log on to that machine. This safety measure was clearly created because the old system left things wide open for pilfering, and when you're handling thousands (or millions) of dollars in wagers a day, it can be awfully tempting for some people.

Another new technology that hasn't even hit the track yet is the Quick Jack Ez Tote. This is for cashing out. Finally, you won't have to stand in a teller line to cash your winning tickets. Just slide them into the Quick Jack and out comes your money.

The newest self-service betting machines recognize when a person is standing in front of it. They also now show the win bet payouts, as opposed to just the odds, as you see below. Those red and green arrows tell bettors how that horse is trending in the last 30 seconds. In this example, when the next flash comes, Shescominumdone will likely be 3-1, while Toby's Baby will probably be 10-1.

When Keeneland opens Friday, United Tote will be testing a new application called FastBet, which helps people wager on their smart phones. Because Apple still doesn't allow gambling "apps," FastBet will work more like a website than the applications you find in the apps store. Ruffra said his company is trying to convince Apple to allow straight-up betting applications, but so far, they haven't budged.

The goal of these technologies is to get with the times and reduce lines at the betting windows. Bet from your seat, instead. Cash out at an automated kiosk. Swipe a card. Ruffra says one of the Churchill Downs tracks, probably Fair Grounds, will be fully automated in the not-too-distant future.

One difficulty the company has had is getting racetrack patrons to sign up for "loyalty cards," which may be a requirement for using some of this new technology. Ruffra says, for some reason, racing patrons don't seem to trust the card system, while bettors in other gambling forums have no problem with it. Paranoia and the racetrack tend to go hand-in-hand, I guess.

Slowly, but surely, though, racetrack wagering technology seems to be headed in the right direction.

Kentucky Derby Dosage explained, debated

2011-04-04T22:43:00.000-07:00

With the Derby picture still somewhat muddled, it's time to bring out those arcane statistical tools to try and figure out who the heck might win Kentucky Derby 137.

One of the tools that always pops up during Derby season is the Dosage Index. When I first started falling in love with racing a few years ago, I kept seeing this Dosage Index mentioned in articles about the Derby, but I had no clue what they were talking about. Even as I learned that it was a measure of the proclivity for a horse to get a certain distance, I still didn't understand exactly how it worked. I just knew it was a number.

But as a student in the University of Louisville Equine Business Program (graduating in May!), one of the many benefits is a much greater understanding of things like the Dosage Index. So, I shall try to explain the Dosage Index here to those who may not have a complete grasp on how it is measured. And for others who couldn't care less about such statistical measurements, you can at least see the names of the top Derby contenders and start thinking about whom you might want to bet on.

The original idea of Dosage was developed by French cavalry officer JJ Vuillier, who believed that certain sires exerted extraordinary influence on Thoroughbreds. Since he was French, he called them "chefs de race." Later, the Italian Dr. Franco Varola followed up on Vuillier's theories and categorized these sires as Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic, Stout (now Solid) and Professional. Essentially, Brilliant means sprinter. Classic means 1 1/4 miles, the distance of the Kentucky Derby. And Professional suggests a two-mile distance pedigree, something rarely seen in the U.S. these days. Sprinters almost never last 1 1/4 miles. Professionals can rarely go fast enough to compete at 1 1/4 miles - you get the idea.

An American adherent to the theory was Dr. Steve Roman, who has continued to update the "chefs de race" lists and Dosage Index to this day.

So here's how to calculate a runner's Dosage Index: First, access his five-cross pedigree at Equineline.com. Type in the horse's name and the pedigree will appear. Look through the horse's pedigree for four generations and mark the chefs de race, which can be found here. Beside each chef de race name will be a B or an I or a C or S or a P, which signifies the categories listed above (Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic, Solid, Professional). Some horses have two categories listed.

Early Derby favorite Uncle Mo's pedigree looks like the following. Uncle Mo is in the far left blue block. His dam and sire take up the two blocks to the right, with the sire on top. Their parents take up the third block. With Dosage, you are only concerned with the blue blocks (the sires), and while you probably can't read the names, look it up for yourself and you'll see the sires in his bloodlines. For Dosage, you only go back four generations, so the right-most block here is ignored.

The formula goes like this: The first generation (Uncle Mo's father) counts for 16 points. So, if Indian Charlie is a chef de race, he gets a 16. In this case, Indian Charlie is not, so the score is zero. The second generation is allotted 8 points each (sire's sire and dam's sire). Again, in this case, neither is a chef de race. Same for the third generation, where each sire counts for 4 points. In his fourth generation, he has four chefs de race (two points each): Caro, Roberto, Danzig and Northern Dancer. For each sire, the two points are divided up by their proclivities as mentioned above. So Uncle Mo's chart looks like this:

Caro's two points are distributed: One point to Intermediate and one point to Classic. Roberto is a pure Classic runner, so he gets two points in Classic... and so on.

To calculate the Dosage Index, you add the Brilliant plus the Intermediate plus 1/2 the Classic divided by 1/2 Classic plus Solid Plus Professional. In other words, B + I + 1/2 C/1/2 C + S + P. In this case, the result is 1 + 2 + 2.5 divided by 2.5 + 0 + 0 = 2.20. So, Uncle Mo's Dosage Index is 2.20.

The idea is to get as close to 1.0 as possible because that indicates a perfect balance of speed and stamina. It is virtually impossible to achieve a perfect 1.0, and that is why winning the Kentucky Derby is so difficult. The 1 1/4-mile distance of the Derby is essentially the point at which horses cross the barrier of speed to stamina. It is extremely, extremely difficult for a horse to run for two minutes at a sprinter's speed because sprinting is an anaerobic activity and running a longer distance is an aerobic activity. The buildup of lactic acid fatigues the muscles and by two minutes, horses get too tired. This is why you can't "buy" the Derby. The combination of speed and endurance is almost impossible to predict, and that's why Secretariat only comes along once in a generation, if that often.

The Dosage Index has been criticized as bunk, and as a handicapping tool, it is essentially useless. But, contrary to its continued usage in the Daily Racing Form and other places, it was not designed to predict the winner of races. It was designed to calculate the probability of a certain horse to get a certain distance. That is all. I repeat, that is all. And in that respect, it is still a decent measurement.

A second tool is the center of distribution. I will not bore you with the calculations of that one, but the important rule of thumb for that statistic is that the closer you get to zero, the more in balance speed versus stamina.

Finally, Roman introduced the concept of "dual qualifiers," meaning horses that were within ten points of the top-weight in the Experimental Free Handicap (or EFH) in their two-year-old seasons AND had a Dosage Index of 4.0 or less. The EFH gives a rating to the top two-year-old runners in an attempt to assess their potential for the Triple Crown the following year. For many years, Roman touted the fact that no horse with a Dosage Index of higher than 4.0 had won the Kentucky Derby, and this proved true for a while, but in recent years, a few horses have debunked that theory. Plus, many of the recent Derby winners haven't even been weighted on the EFH, so these tools have seriously come into question.

However, since they were never intended as handicapping devices and since they still give some indication of a horse's proclivity to get a certain distance, they are still useful in the proper context.

So without further adieu, here are the Dosage Index results and Centers of Distribution for this year's top Kentucky Derby contenders, ranked in order of the most recent Paulick Derby Index:

It's very difficult to draw conclusions based on these statistics alone, but if one were to weigh them against the performances so far, Uncle Mo still looks pretty darn impressive. Dialed In's numbers don't scream DERBY WINNER, but his visual performances have been of high quality so far. And the numbers on Archarcharch and Santiva are certainly intriguing. Not to mention Animal Kingdom, who has yet to run on dirt. Food for thought?

My New Crush

2011-03-12T08:59:00.000-08:00

Dear Zenyatta: I know this is hard to accept, but I need to move on with my life. It's not you, it's me. We've had so many great memories together, and I'll always cherish them, but I feel that I should tell you - there's someone new.

I'm sorry. It just kind of happened. You wouldn't know her. She lives in Australia.

I was watching the races from Down Under one night, and there she was, sprinting to the wire like a winged goddess. I got all flush and felt the butterflies. She stirred emotions I haven't felt since - well, since the Breeders' Cup Classic. I know it's terrible, bringing that up. But it was hard. It took months to get over you losing by a head after being so far behind. I didn't think I'd ever see another like you.

But this filly, she reminds me of you. She's undefeated, just like you were for so long. And you should see the crowds she attracts. It's just like when you were racing - girls waving pink flags, joyful faces, thousands cheering. Here, take a look (just watch the first minute or so):

And the way she runs - it's just so effortless. Watch today's race and see what happens when she hits the 200 meter mark (the 2 sign).

Did you see that? All the jockey had to do was whisper, and she was gone. He barely moved a muscle. She slowed up before the wire and still had the second fastest time for this course in more than 150 years! She equaled the world record for most weight carried by a mare. Who knows how fast she really is? She's never been all-out.

Her last race was just as remarkable. I know you're a racing veteran, Zenyatta, but for others who might be reading this, pay close attention to the horse with the cross on his blinkers. That is Hay List, probably the top male sprinter in Australia. Again, at about the 2 sign, watch how hard the jockey is working on him to try and keep up with Black Caviar and notice what her jockey is doing. Virtually nothing!

Maybe you can see now why I'm so smitten. Besides, you don't have time for me anyway. You need to focus on being a good mom. Congratulations, by the way. I'm happy for you and Bernardini. I look forward to seeing your foal next February. What will the name be? Zentini? Bernyatta? Zen Master? Since you were named for a Police album, I'm kind of partial to Can'tStandLosing, after one of my favorite Police songs. It's fitting, too, because your one loss out of 20 races stung for so long.

Anyway, I hope this finds you well and that everything goes as planned with your pregnancy. A healthy foal is all that matters.

Since I have a new crush, I've finally been able to watch your Breeders' Cup Classic again. It truly was one of the most inspiring efforts I've ever seen. Even a flashy young thing like Black Caviar can't erase that memory.

All the best, Z.

Maybe the racing industry should listen to us

2011-02-25T09:49:00.000-08:00

We've been doing some brainstorming in my "equine marketing" and "current equine issues" courses, and we've come up with some pretty good ideas for marketing horse racing.

Some of these may not be new, some of them might be unrealistic, but we need more positive idea creation in this industry, and since we are eager, unjaded Equine Business students, this is what we do in class. So here goes:

Get on Sportscenter: I try to catch the Top 10 Plays just about every day, and with the exception of the Kentucky Derby or Zenyatta in the Breeders' Cup, horse racing is never on it. They show plenty of soccer. There's lots of hockey. Hell, there's quite a bit of high school basketball. But no horse racing. Dialed In comes from a hopeless 15 lengths back to win the Holy Bull. That's visually impressive, even to a racing novice. Two other Derby hopefuls, Anthony's Cross and Riveting Reason, battle neck-and-neck to the wire as they fight for a spot in the big event in Louisville. That's exciting to watch, and it'll get the masses interested in the Derby before the first Saturday in May. Getting on Sportscenter more often would be huge for the sport.

ESPN Ads: While we're on the subject of Sportscenter, how about getting ESPN to do one of its This Is Sportscenter ads with a horse? The logistics might be a bit tricky, but there's a way to do it. How about: Sportscenter anchor Kenny Mayne pulls into the ESPN offices, and on his parking space sign, his name is scratched out and instead, it says Uncle Mo (or whoever wins the Derby). The horse is standing in his space. They have a stare-down. Mayne mutters, "Think he's own the place now," and drives off in a huff.

Why not? I mean, they have ducks on, for crying out loud:

All-Star Weekend: I happened to catch some of the NBA all-star stuff, and they do a great job of creating a fun event with lots of celebrities involved. It just so happens that quite a few celebrities enjoy horse racing, and some of them actually own Thoroughbreds. Let's have a weekend of all-star racing that includes celebrity handicapping contests, musical performances and other fun events involving celebrities.

Racing during other sporting events: Since NBC has the Triple Crown deal this year, I'll use them as an example. The Triple Crown coincides with the NHL playoffs, which will also be on NBC. NHL games have pretty lengthy intermissions between periods. On Derby, Preakness and Belmont Days, NBC could air some of the undercard races between periods, as a way of building up to the main event. That kind of thing could also work with other sports - say, during college football games on Breeders' Cup day.

More Reality TV: I thought Jockeys on Animal Planet was pretty good. Too bad it only lasted a couple of seasons. With a gazillion cable channels thirsty for more reality TV content, horse racing should step up with some new productions. Racing is such an emotional roller coaster of a game with so many vivid characters - jockeys, owners, trainers, horseplayers. It's tailor-made for reality TV. Here's a clip from one of the Jockeys episodes:

Focus on the owners: There are so many Thoroughbred owners who are highly successful business people. Jess Jackson of Kendall Jackson winery. Jenny Craig. Record producer Jerry Moss. Mike Repole of Vitaminwater fame. A guy like Repole is an energetic character, too. Get these people out in front of the sport. How about a CNBC show or special that profiles the economics of racing through the lens of some of these highly successful business people?

Racing + Entertainment: We've talked a lot in class about how racing markets itself going forward. Are we trying to sell the sport? Are we selling betting on horses? Or it increasingly about gaming, with racing being a part of a larger package? Woodbine Racecourse in Toronto is planning an entertainment complex to go along with its racing and its casino. It'll include shopping, movie theaters, restaurants, etc. Gulfstream in South Florida already has a similar concept going. The future may well be in packaging other forms of entertainment along with the racing product, and there's nothing wrong with that if it brings the crowds.

Move the Breeders' Cup: Racing is like the endless summer, except that half the time, it's the endless winter. Every other sport has a season. Racing just keeps going and going and going. Create a season around the Derby trail, the Triple Crown, the major summer races and the Breeders' Cup. How about February to Labor Day? The Breeders' Cup could be moved to early September. There's no reason why it has to be so late in the year, competing with pro and college football, not to mention the baseball playoffs. Late summer is down time in the sports world and could be a ripe opportunity for racing. Packaging it as a season with a definite culmination would be more TV-friendly as well.

Match Races: For all of racing's history, match races have been some of the most-watched events. 60,000 people turned out to watch a North-South matchup between Eclipse and Sir Henry - in 1823! The stands were filled for 20th century match races, too - Man O' War vs Sir Barton, Nashua vs Swaps and of course, Seabiscuit vs War Admiral:

Unfortunately, the last prominent, nationally-televised match race, between the colt Foolish Pleasure and the great filly Ruffian in 1975, ended in tragedy as Ruffian broke down and had to be euthanized. That obviously soured many people on the idea of match races, and it was tough to get over. But there were dozens of match races before and since that went fine. It was just a horrible combination of events that day. These days, some graded stakes races only have four horses in them. Might as well just make it two. It'd be more interesting.

My fellow students and I care about the sport, and the people and the horses in it. Our discussions are lively and passionate, and our goal, upon graduation, is to turn some of these ideas or others like them into reality. I'd love to hear your thoughts and your own ideas...

Racing terms and traditions

2011-02-11T13:48:00.000-08:00

Ever wonder why a furlong is an eighth of a mile or why favorites are called "chalk"? Or where the idea of win, place and show came from?

In addition to learning practical business concepts in the University of Louisville's Equine Business program, I've also picked up some great trivia tidbits about the origins of racing terms and traditions. I thought I'd share a few of them here, in case you might not know some of them.

Furlong - How did it come to be that a furlong equals an eighth of a mile? It dates back to at least the ninth century when farmers would measure how far oxen could pull a plough before giving out and needing rest. It turns out, it was about an eighth of a mile, and this was referred to as a "furrow long," which was later shortened to furlong.

Chalk - In a time when bookies ruled the racetrack, they would write their odds on a chalkboard. After a few people bet on a certain horse at 5-1, let's say, the bookmaker would wipe off the chalk and write in lower odds - maybe 2-1. They constantly updated the "chalk", and the term is still widely used today to denote the favorites in a race.

The Sport of Kings: People usually attribute this to the idea that racing was traditionally a sport for wealthy people, and that's partially true. But the phrase actually derives from the post-Restoration era in England in the late 1600's when a series of kings who loved horse racing took the throne. Prior to the Restoration, racing was banned. Afterward, it literally became the Sport of Kings.

Win/Place/Show: We have the Sheriff of Nottingham (of Robin Hood fame) to thank for this one. Since the kings and nobles of that era loved racing, the Sheriff wanted to offer them fabulous prizes for winning races. He issued an order to create a plate for the winner. When the plate was brought to him, he said, "No, that's too small. Make a bigger one." So, a bigger plate was brought to him, and the Sheriff still wasn't satisfied. Finally, he received a plate that was big enough in his eyes, and he decided to award that to the winner. Not wanting to waste plates, he chose to give the smaller ones to the second and third place finishers, who were probably also nobles, and the Sheriff didn't want them to go home empty handed!

Derby: The Kentucky Derby, The Irish Derby, The Epsom Derby. The name comes from Lord Derby, who in the late 1700's, flipped a coin with Sir Charles Bunbury, to determine whose name would be attached to a new race for three-year-old colts. Lord Derby won the toss, thankfully, and to this day, races for three-year-old colts are called Derbies. Otherwise, we might be getting ready for the Kentucky Bunbury every spring.

The Blood-Horse: I always wondered why they would name a magazine, Blood-Horse. Following the English Restoration, the kings were looking for faster horses to compete in their races. They heard about a breed of horses in the Arabian desert. They brought some of these horses to England to breed with their mares, and thus started the Thoroughbred, which at the time was also called a "hot-blood" or a "blooded horse."

Sweepstakes: Stakes races began with horse owners quite literally putting bags of money - their "stakes" - on a table. When the race was over, the winner would sweep all of the bags of money into his own. I'm guessing they optimistically brought along an extra, bigger bag for such a purpose.

Why gambling: Why is gambling such as essential part of racing? It boils down to the idea of "rooting interest." As baseball grew as a sport, it was easy to find a rooting interest. You were a fan of your hometown team. Towns all over the Midwest had teams. But for racing to compete, it needed to create an emotional stake in the sport like those fans of baseball naturally had. While gambling on racing obviously predates baseball (the pari-mutuel betting system was developed in France), it became essential for American racing because when people went to the track, they didn't know the horses. They needed a reason to pull for them, and that reason became their own money.

Why Kentucky: How did Kentucky become the center of the breeding world? A lot of people attribute it to the limestone in the water and its supposed positive effects on horse bones. But a more likely reason is that during the Civil War, the armies sought out horses for battle by going door-to-door in horse states like Maryland and Virginia. They used the power of eminent domain to confiscate every good horse they found, and many of them were Thoroughbreds. Some of the breeders decided to take their horses over the mountains to the safety of Central Kentucky, where a few good horse farms had cropped up. When the war was over, Kentucky had virtually the only good Thoroughbreds left.

The Kentucky Derby: For its first few decades, the Kentucky Derby received no national attention. It was only in the early 1900's, when Louisville businessman Matt Winn, president of Churchill Downs, decided to market the race on a larger scale that it took off. Winn would call up prominent Thoroughbred owners in other states and offer to pay all of their expenses for bringing their horse and their families to Louisville the first Saturday in May. He would ask the owner, can your horse beat that horse in Chicago? Oh yeah, they'd say, no doubt. Then, Winn would call that horse's owner and say, hey, there's a guy in New York who says he can beat your horse. Wanna come down and take him on? And so it all began.

Hanging out with Curlin and Colonel John

2011-02-05T10:41:00.000-08:00

One of the wonderful things about living in Kentucky is that some of the finest horses on the planet are just a short drive away.

Yesterday, I had the opportunity to get up close and personal with some of the top sires in the world. The visit to three Lexington-area stallion farms was organized by the University of Louisville Equine Business program, in which I am enrolled.

Our first stop was Lane's End, home to Horse of the Year Zenyatta, who is relaxing on the farm in preparation for her breeding career. Unfortunately, since we only visited the stallion area, I didn't get to see Z. But my disappointment quickly evaporated when I walked into the stallion barn. Wow. There's AP Indy. Oh, look, it's Quality Road. Mineshaft. Lemon Drop Kid. Smart Strike. Rock Hard Ten. City Zip. Curlin. Candy Ride. I could go on.

It's stunning to see all of these great sires (and potentially great sires) in one place. Check out the forelock on Quality Road. I think it's longer than his tail!

The first stallion they brought out was the great AP Indy, whose stud fee is $150,000. He was gracious enough to let me pet him for free.

Next up was Curlin, North America's leading money-earner and winner of the Preakness, the Dubai World Cup and the Breeders' Cup Classic. Curlin, it seems, is anxious to get it on with Rachel Alexandra, his future mate (and also winner of the Preakness). I got the feeling Curlin thought he was headed to the breeding shed at this moment and was a little perturbed that instead, he had to stand around being ogled by a bunch of humans. He kept biting his handler as if to say, "Hey, I'm supposed to making sweet love right now. Equine Business students? Are you serious?"

Lane's End is truly close to heaven, and in fact, when horses pass on, they just stay right here on the farm. The statue in the background of this little graveyard is of Dixieland Band, a fine stallion who died last year at the ripe old age of 29.

Our next stop was WinStar Farm, which is not only a breeding operation but a racing farm as well. They're using some pretty fancy technology to keep horses conditioned and prevent injuries. They have something called Equivibe, which is the use of vibration in horse therapy. I stood in one of the stalls with a vibrating plate, and I can see why horses would love it. Like a hot shower, I didn't want to get out!

I was also impressed as the farm manager, Tony, described his approach for bringing along young horses. He said WinStar tries never to force them into doing something they're not ready for, like loading into a starting gate. He wants them relaxed, not scared. Tony said if his horses are anxious in the paddock or at the gate, they're wasting precious energy that could be used at the end of a race. He was less enthusiastic about the polytrack surface installed at WinStar's training track. He said it changes every time the weather does.

WinStar is home to last year's Kentucky Derby winner, Super Saver, who begins his breeding career this year. The stallion roster also includes Tiznow, Distorted Humor, Speightstown and Bluegrass Cat, who had a monster year in 2010 as his first runners hit the track. The best-looking of the bunch, though, was Colonel John, who went to the breeding shed last year. Can't wait to see his two-year-olds! Here's a short video of the Colonel being brought out.

Our final destination was Taylor Made, a smaller farm that has a partnership with WinStar. Taylor Made stands five stallions: Old Fashioned, Northern Afleet, Forestry, Unbridled's Song (their current rock star) and Eskendereya (their future rock star). Eskendereya would've certainly been last year's Kentucky Derby favorite after his romping wins in the Fountain of Youth and Wood Memorial, but his racing career was cut short by injury. He certainly looks like he could be a phenomenal sire:

Unbridled's Song has produced a host of Grade 1 winners, including Zensational, Midshipman and Songandaprayer. And he's gorgeous! Take a look:

It's pretty incredible to get up close to these famous sires. As someone once said: A lovely horse is always an experience... It is an emotional experience of the kind that is spoiled by words.

So, I'll stop typing now.

The Lecomte: Small Field, Even Smaller Derby Hopes?

2011-01-20T21:40:00.000-08:00

Happy New Year to everyone! I officially kick off 2011 with my first post of the year - the Handicappers' Corner, a thorough examination of the Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds this Saturday.

Fair Grounds kicks off its series of Kentucky Derby prep races Saturday with the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes. If history is any indication, the winner of this year’s Lecomte is unlikely to be draped in roses come the first Saturday in May. Since 1970, no Lecomte winner has gone on to win the Derby. Only two Lecomte victors have even hit the board on Derby day - the most recent being Hard Spun, who finished a game second to Street Sense in 2007. Before that, you have to go all the way back to 1972, when Lecomte winner No Le Hace finished behind Derby champion Riva Ridge. In 2009, Friesan Fire won the Lecomte and went off as the Derby favorite but finished somewhere in the parking lot of Churchill Downs.

Still, when it comes to the Kentucky Derby, history reminds us you can often throw it right out the window. Very few people thought the winner of the Sunland Derby had a remote chance to beat Friesan Fire or Pioneer of the Nile in 2009, but Mine That Bird’s upset will long be remembered. The magic of the Derby trail is that you never know where the eventual winner might show the slightest hint that this is their year. Maybe one of the five starters in the Lecomte Stakes will prove something special.

Unfortunately, the last sentence also contains a fact. A whopping five horse-field is on tap for Saturday’s feature race at Fair Grounds. Handicappers everywhere must be licking their chops. Seriously, though, what to do when faced with a five-horse field?

I can tell you one thing you do not do is what I did with the 2008 Swaps Stakes at Hollywood Park. A field of four went to post in the Swaps that year, and in my Pick Four, I played three of them. As the only horse I did not play crossed the finish line first, I realized it was possible that I was indeed born yesterday. No one in the history of horseplaying could be that dumb. For the record, that horse was Tres Borrachos, who went off as the longest shot in the field at 11-1, triggering a $2,600 payout for a Pick Four in which I had the other three fairly chalky legs correct. Moral of the story: Never, ever leave one horse in a small field off your ticket. You are begging the racing gods to smite you. In fact, never leave one horse off a ticket in any circumstances. Either intensify your handicapping and eliminate more horses or push the ALL button. That horse knows you left him out, and he will do everything in his power to make you cry like a child who’s been shoved off his bicycle.

With small fields, I usually either skip the race or play the multi-race wagers, hoping I can get by with a single in that race and spread in the bigger fields. It makes little sense to play two or three horses in a field of five when it doesn’t cost much more to cover the whole thing in case a horse pulls a Tres Borrachos on you. Occasionally, I mess around with the exacta pools because sometimes in small fields, there will be combinations paying much more than they should. Keep an eye out for those.

But let’s get to this year’s Lecomte, to be run at a mile and 40 yards on the main track.

Justin Phillip was made the 7-5 morning line favorite after his optional claiming win in the slop at Fair Grounds on New Year’s Day. When I first saw trainer Steve Asmussen was adding blinkers to a horse that just went gate to wire and won by 3 ¼ lengths, I was perplexed. Far be it from me to question a trainer who is 23% in the past year with Blinkers On, but I needed an explanation. Then I watched the race. When Shaun Bridgmohan asked Justin Phillip to switch leads in the stretch, it looked like he asked the horse to go get him a beer from the concession stand. The horse literally went sideways about six paths to the grandstand side. There isn’t a shade of green that describes that move. So, Blinkers On, it is.

Owner Ahmed Zayat says Justin Phillip worked well with the blinkers January 17. Still stinging from the injury last year to his potential superhorse, Eskendereya, Zayat says Asmussen is high on Justin Phillip as a Derby hopeful. So far, the colt has shown quite a bit of versatility, doing well on the lead and from off the pace in five races at four different racetracks, in both fast and sloppy conditions.

The second morning line choice (9-5) is Pants On Fire, who seems to enjoy running as his name suggests. His last two races at Aqueduct have been pretty impressive. In the Count Fleet Stakes, he wore down late after getting pressured on the lead throughout. The race before that, also at a mile, he was game in a narrow defeat. He made the race on the front end and got nipped late. The Kelly Breen shipper is likely to be the pacesetter once again in the Lecomte, with Joe Bravo on board. Bravo was up for the Jump Start colt’s last win, a seven-length MSW romp at Delaware last October.

Wilkinson (7-2 ML) gets a rider switch from the injured Robby Albarado to Garrett Gomez. Nice pinch hitter. Wilkinson, a Lemon Drop Kid progeny, finished third to Justin Phillip in the New Year’s Day race. With one maiden win to his credit from four starts, he’ll have to step it up here. But if the top two choices decide to fight it out up front, Wilkinson might be the beneficiary. His trainer, Howard Neill, is a scorching 30% at the Fair Grounds meet so far.

Action Ready (9-2 ML) is coming off a win on the Fair Grounds turf January 9 - his second win in four tries. On paper, the last race doesn’t look so hot. Action Ready set painfully slow fractions (:26.1 and 51.4 for a mile), but when you consider the turf was yielding, there was a strong headwind in the stretch, and he fought off a late-running foe, his gate-to-wire victory deserves bonus points. The son of More Than Ready will probably be a bigger threat on turf than dirt, but with Bret Calhoun training and Anna Napravnik riding, I won’t count him out.

Mobeetie completes the field at 20-1. This horse could be anything. He won his first and only race January 1 in a maiden claimer over a sloppy Fair Grounds track at six furlongs. Trained by Eric Heitzmann, the son of Sky Mesa was purchased for $4,000 at the 2009 Keeneland September sale. Justin Phillip, sired by First Samurai out of a Cryptoclearance mare, went for 100 times that price at the same sale. The Derby trail is littered with high-priced talent being scorched by bargain basement nobodies, which is why it’s so much fun.

However, it’s difficult to envision a big upset here. Despite being a devout member of the anti-chalk coalition, on pedigree, connections, versatility and past performance, Justin Phillip looks tough in here. I expect Bridgmohan will put out Pants On Fire and maybe Action Ready somewhere in the stretch and push-button his way to the victory. Wilkinson will be closing. If Justin Phillip doesn’t wind up sitting in row E of the Fair Grounds stands, he’ll probably end up in the winner’s circle.

Selections:
1. Justin Phillip
2. Wilkinson
3. Pants On Fire

Tales from the track and elsewhere

2010-12-06T14:14:00.000-08:00

One of the things I enjoy most about studying equine business is the stories I get to hear on a daily basis.

As my first semester in the Equine Business program at the University of Louisville comes to a close, I've been recalling some of the stories I've heard in class, and I thought I'd share a few of them.

Make Rain, Not Love

One of my professors, Timothy Capps, has worked all over the equine industry, from Claiborne Farm to Pimlico Race Track to racing media publications. His memory is filled with legendary stories.

He told us one about Seattle Slew, who after winning the Triple Crown in 1977, went on to a successful stud career at both Spendthrift and Three Chimneys farms.

I don't know if you'd call it a fetish or what, but Seattle Slew's handlers learned that this great champion only liked to breed mares when it was raining. You can see how this might be a problem, since a stallion farm can't possibly make money if it has to wait for rain in order to breed.

It just so happened that the breeding shed at the farm had a tin roof. So, when Seattle Slew was brought into the shed, his handlers would turn on the sprinkler system and point it at the roof. Voila - to Seattle Slew's ears, it had started raining, and that meant it was time to get down to business.

A lot of stallions have these mating quirks. The great stud, Nasrullah, would not mate under any circumstances if Arthur B. Hancock, Jr., the operator of Claiborne Farm at the time, was in the shed. They tried several ways to sneak him in the barn when Nasrullah wasn't looking, but Nasrullah would sense his presence and back off the mare.

Horses are funny creatures, aren't they?

Face the Broom Handle

Capps tells another story about Nasrullah, who was an ornery sort. None of the grooms at Claiborne Farm could do their jobs because Nasrullah would attack them when they came into his stall. One of the fed-up grooms went to Mr. Hancock and said, it's either me or the horse. One of us has to go.

Obviously, Mr. Hancock wasn't about to send Nasrullah packing, so the groom told him, okay, let me try something, but I can't tell you what it is. You just have to trust me. Nervously, Mr. Hancock agreed, telling the groom not to injure his stallion. The groom said he would cause no "permanent damage."

So, when the groom went into the stall the next day, he carried with him a broomstick handle, and when Nasrullah came at him, he whacked him three times on the forehead. Not gently, mind you. Nasrullah backed up and let the groom grab the feed bucket.

The next time the groom went in, Nasrullah attacked him again, and he got a whack, whack, whack on the forehead. Again, Nasrullah backed up. The third time the groom went in, Nasrullah started coming after him, but all the groom had to do this time was show him the broomstick handle, and that was the end of it. He never attacked the groom again, and for the remainder of Nasrullah's stud career, that groom was the only one who could successfully go into Nasrullah's stall.

It CAN'T be Mind That Bird

Churchill Downs track announcer Mark Johnson spoke to one of our classes and played us his call of the 2009 Kentucky Derby. My background as a radio broadcaster led me to notice something interesting about the stretch run of that race.

I told Mark, "I heard you buy yourself some time." He laughed and told the story of what happened in those two seconds.

During the call, Mark says something about Mine That Bird being "long last" on the backstretch, and he never mentions him again until deep stretch. As the leaders were hitting their late strides, Johnson says "Towards the inside... picking up now... bursting through... Mine That Bird!"

Mark said he noticed a horse skimming the rail and was trying to figure out who it was. Mark is a big fan of the cartoon, Tom and Jerry, and he said that moment was just like the Tom and Jerry episodes where the characters would have an angel on one shoulder and a devil on the other, telling them what to do.

The angel was telling Mark, "You know that is Mine That Bird. You know those are Calvin Borel's silks." The devil was saying, "Come on, that can't possibly be Mine That Bird! He was just chasing the ambulance a minute ago!" This went back and forth in Mark's brain at lightning speed, and his mouth was trying to buy him time to decide. So he said, "Toward the inside...picking up now... bursting through...", and at last, he decided to go with the angel and shouted "Mine That Bird!"

What makes his call even more impressive is that Tom Durkin, who called the race for NBC, muffed it and didn't pick up Mine That Bird until the wire.

Apparently, the devil got the best of him.

By the way, Mark invited me up to the announcer's booth for a race call a few weeks ago, and it was scintillating. He's a tremendous talent, and watching him work was a thrill.

Who is That Ugly Foal?

Another one of our speakers was Shannon White, manager of Fares Farms in Lexington, KY. Shannon told us the story of a foal that was bred on her farm a few years ago.

As the foal was developing, Shannon formed the opinion that he would never even sniff a racetrack. He was too awkward-looking with too many conformation flaws. She said she wouldn't have paid a dime for that foal. That's his weanling photo on the right.

Well, somebody did buy that foal, and he not only raced, but he broke his maiden with a 101 Beyer Speed figure rating. He went on to win the Preakness, finish second in the Belmont and win the Breeders' Cup Classic.

Shannon said it just goes to show you that you can't look at a horse and determine the size of his heart, and she learned a valuable lesson from the experience.

That foal was none other than Curlin, who to this day is prominently displayed on the Fares Farms website.

Legal Matters

In my regulatory law class, we spent the semester pouring over case law involving patrons ejected from racetracks, trainers violating drug rules, OTB bettors thrown out for screaming, jockeys using "buzzers", a woman slipping on a half-eaten hot dog, a gambler being bitten by a rattlesnake in the parking lot - you name it.

You couldn't make up the characters in some of these cases, and they illustrate the colorful, always interesting, sometimes disturbing elements in the racing industry. My professor, Robert Heleringer, has written a book chronicling the entire history of regulatory law cases in racing. It should be published soon. His book has essentially been the material for our class. Highly recommended (and entertaining) reading!

Final Thoughts

This first semester has been incredible. I went to the Keeneland auction and race meet. I worked the Breeders' Cup for the Paulick Report and watched the Classic from six floors above the finish line. I clocked workouts in the mornings at Churchill with workout master, Bruno de Julio. I met people in every corner of the equine industry from jockeys and trainers to farm managers, equine insurance agents and horse massage therapists. I made great friends, including fellow student Michael Vesce, whose uncle trained a phenomenal racehorse of the 90's - Formal Gold.

I learned how the tote odds at the track are calculated with takeout included, how a stallion manager determines stud fees, the economics behind auctions, the science of horse reproduction, the origin of the saying "never look a gift horse in the mouth" (you can tell his age by the teeth), and much, much more.

The spring semester should be just as enjoyable. It will include equine marketing, a course on racing media, commercial law and current issues in the industry among others. And while this semester culminated with the Breeders' Cup at Churchill, my final semester will end the week of the Kentucky Derby.

What more could a horse nut ask for?

Zenyatta's heart and my head

2010-11-07T22:21:00.000-08:00

One of the cardinal rules of handicapping horses is that you should never bet with your heart - well, I bet with my head in the Breeders' Cup Classic, so how did I do?

I wrote earlier this year that Blame and Zenyatta were the best horses in training in the US, bar none. And clearly, that opinion proved correct Saturday night. So, I must have made a ton of money on the Classic.

Nope. I didn't make a cent. I suppose that requires explanation.

I've been a Blame fan for the past year. At 5-1, I picked him to win the Clark Handicap Thanksgiving weekend at Churchill last November, and I've been on him every single race since, even as his price dropped to even money most times. I knew he was a phenomenal horse right from the beginning, something I've never been able to say, being a relative newcomer to the sport. Conversely, I bet against Zenyatta time and time again early in her career because I was determined to bet with my head, not my heart.

But Zenyatta eventually won me over with her heart and in my head. And after assessing the Breeders' Cup with purely a handicapper's eye, despite all the naysayers, and as good as I knew Blame to be, I believed with every fiber of my soul that Zenyatta was the best horse in the Classic. I was sure all that negative stuff about her running on synthetics and not facing males was pure bunk. She was bigger, faster and stronger than the best male horses in this country.

So when it came to Saturday's Classic, as much as I loved Blame, I loved Zenyatta more. And with that opinion, I played the Pick Four.

I started off with the obvious single on Goldikova. I had played against every favorite in the BC up until then, but I loved Goldikova as much as I loved Zenyatta, and Goldi won like the champion she is. Off to a good, but obvious start.

In leg two, I was elated when 37-1 Dakota Phone won because that assured that the Pick Four would have some value, and he was on my ticket. If you're going to play a Pick Four with Goldikova, you'd better get value elsewhere. In leg three, again, a nice price on my ticket - 8-1 Dangerous Midge - who was originally my pick, but for some reason, I got off of him in my "official" selections. At least I included him in the Pick Four.

Then, it came down to the Classic. When I made out my Pick Four ticket, I was flush with cash after doing very well on Friday, so I could've easily made the Classic a two-horse race, as I had been saying all along.

But I didn't. I singled Zenyatta.

In hindsight, it seems foolish. If I believed Blame and Zenyatta were the only two horses that could win the Classic, why would I single Zenyatta? I've been asking myself that question for the past two days.

I guess it's because I wanted to be all in on the great mare. I had some sort of instinct to live or die with her. Even after singling her in the Pick Four, I had the opportunity to bet a nice exacta with Blame over Zenyatta right before the race, and I just couldn't do it. It was strange. My mind and my body could not pull the trigger, even though in many, many other circumstances, I have easily done such a thing to "hedge" financially.

I just felt a strong pull that I could not resist to put all my chips on Zenyatta.

It cost me a lot of money. The exacta was reasonable, and the Pick Four, with Blame winning, paid $3,800 for .50.

Monetarily, that photo finish cost me a bunch of money.

I don't regret my decision. Well, maybe a little. As a student in the University of Louisville's Equine Business program, I could certainly have used the money. But I will never forget watching - from six floors above the finish line at Churchill - the moment when Zenyatta came charging at Blame, after her horrific trip in the Classic. I lost my breath for what seemed like a year. But those five seconds feel like they were worth $3,800.

Blame proved himself to be the great horse I thought he was, but people who say Zenyatta wasn't the best horse in that race are delusional. Again, this is coming from a guy who has been touting Blame for more than a year and who doubted Zenyatta for a long time.

Zenyatta broke slow, even by her standards. She struggled with what one Hall of Fame trainer who I cannot mention called a "shitty" track in a private text message. She had to check at one point because the horse that so many people were touting - Quality Road - backed out of the race early (he finished last). And Zenyatta still lost by less than a head, marking her absolute greatness in the history of racing.

After the race, certain people in the press box were saying that they would vote for Zenyatta to win Horse of the Year even though she lost, and I was like, WHAT? Blame won fair and square. It's not a lifetime achievement award. Blame deserves it. He beat Zenyatta.

But after thinking about it, I have changed my mind and believe with the utmost conviction that Zenyatta absolutely deserves the award. Yes, Blame won a race against her by a razor-thin margin. But seriously, if that race is run 10 times, Zenyatta wins 9 of them, even as great as Blame is. If she gets anything resembling a decent trip, she wins. And while that is the drawback of being such a deep closer as she is, in a race like the Classic, it deserves consideration. And so does what she's done for the sport of racing. In every fashion, she is the horse of the year.

She is horse of the decade.

She might even be horse of a lifetime.

Admitted doubter and Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert said she should win horse of the year, even after he believed the winner of the Classic, if it was one of the top four horses, ought to win HOTY.

As for me, I bet with my head, and my heart agreed.

For the only time in my racing life, both were absolutely right.

Breeders' Cup Championship Saturday Picks

2010-11-06T07:56:00.000-07:00

Let's just get right to it. Again, these are picks for most likely winners not a predicted order of finish.

JUVENILE TURF

I'll be honest. I have no idea in this race, but I'll give a hat tip to my buddy Mike for coming up with a nice choice that makes good sense:

SOLDAT (8-1) - After an impressive three-length graded stakes win over the Saratoga turf in September, in his next graded race, Soldat hit the gate, was bumped in the lane and still finished second. I like the two graded stakes races. I like his speed figures. And I like the fact that he closed into a slow pace in his last after much trouble and still almost won.

BANNED (10-1) - He hasn't faced much competition (but neither had AWESOME FEATHER before her romp yesterday). Banned has won his last two races with ease, and the Proctor barn is high on him.

PLUCK (6-1) - Could Pletcher and Gomez have the Juv. Fillies Turf and Juvenile Turf double? More Than Real got the first half. Pluck has drawn a terrible post position (13 of 13), so he could be a toss-out on that fact alone in a one mile race, but this field is a mystery, so why not?

I have no Europeans in my top three. They were shut out on day 1, a trend I don't expect to last into day 2. I don't love any of them in here, but I'd give MANTOBA the best shot if you want to go with a Euro.

SPRINT

GIROLAMO and BIG DRAMA are the favs here, and they both have a legitimate case for winning. But this race quite often produces a longshot winner. So let's see if we can find him:

KINSALE KING (8-1) - Two races back, he finished behind top European sprinter Starspangledbanner in a Group 1 at Ascot. If the Turf Sprint were 6 furlongs instead of 5, KING would be in that race, but he's here, he looks great in the morning and he has a touch of class.

WISE DAN (10-1) - He's only three, facing elders, but gee, he's been impressive so far, winning his last three by almost 20 lengths combined. His trainer, Charles Lopresti, was on fire at Keeneland, taking 6 of 10 starts.

HAMAZING DESTINY (20-1) - I'm not one to pick D. Wayne Lukas horses very often, but this one seems in sharp form, and he seems to like Churchill. He's stepping up pretty severely in class, but he'll be a nice price, and he's not without a shot in here.

TURF SPRINT

Shoot me now. They might as well just pull out the roulette wheel for a turf sprint at five furlongs, but let's give it a whirl. It's almost impossible to win this race from a wide post, so I'm tossing out posts 10-14:

STRADIVINSKY (10-1) - On paper, he does not have the class to win this race, but races aren't run on paper, and if he gets a good break from the three hole, he could be gone. At five furlongs, this guy is deadly, and he isn't facing a bunch of monsters in here.

ROSE CATHERINE (6-1) - Of the four fillies in this race, she's coming out of the fastest races and has won five of her last six, none of them graded stakes races, however.

SILVER TIMBER (4-1) - If someone's going to come late to win this, it'll probably be him.

CENTRAL CITY, QUICK ENOUGH, BRIDGETOWN AND UNZIP ME are other potential candidates in here. This race is why they invented the ALL button.

JUVENILE

This seems to be your classic East Coast vs West Coast vs Godolphin matchup. UNCLE MO is the favorite, but let's try to beat him:

BOYS AT TOSCANOVA (5/2) - This is a HUGE colt with reams of potential. He's also the only runner in here with experience over the Churchill track.

JB'S THUNDER (12-1) - He's got a couple of routes underneath him, which is fairly rare in this bunch, and he's trained by Al Stall, Jr, who is excelling at the moment.

BIONDETTI (12-1) - Godolphin has won the last two BC Juveniles, and this entrant, took the same path as last year's winner VALE OF YORK, who also won in Italy before coming to the Breeders' Cup. I'd sort of lean against a three-peat, but this horse is three-for-three.

THE MILE

For once, we have a race that comes up a little chalky.

GOLDIKOVA (6-5) - I played against heavy favorites Winter Memories and Midday yesterday because I thought they were both vulnerable. Goldikova is in another league. She has won the most Group 1 races in European history. I doubt that she'll be beaten, but there a couple of others with a shot in here.

GIO PONTI (4-1) - He's in top form, and he's all class. He will be in the money.

PROVISO (12-1) - She's won four in a row, mostly against females, but she's got a nasty late kick. The wide post doesn't help her case, but she could figure in this.

PACO BOY has been Goldikova's whipping boy in Europe, losing three races to her by two necks and half a length, so he's hard to toss, but he doesn't win often enough for me. SYDNEY'S CANDY is an interesting item, who will try to take them gate to wire, but GET STORMY will be pestering him, and the closers seem to have an edge in here.

DIRT MILE

HERE COMES BEN (6-1) - The progeny of Street Cry seem to like Churchill. BEN has won four in a row, all at seven furlongs, two of them at Churchill. He should love the extra furlong as he will be charging home late. His trainer is hot.

TIZWAY (6-1) - This dude has faced some serious competition (namely Quality Road, who would be the heavy favorite in here). And he's stood up well. Won his last by five lengths. HERE COMES BEN may have to come get him.

MORNING LINE (7-2) - He's only three but boy was he game in that Pennsyvlania Derby win. He ripped through some solid fractions, lost the lead and came back at 'em to win. Cuts back in distance, but how much did that race take out of him?

TURF

The scratch of the favorite Workforce doesn't change much for me. I was playing against him anyway. I'm sure a lot of his money will switch to Bekhabad, so I'll try to beat him too:

AL KHALI (10-1) This kid showed a wicked turn of foot in his last race while changing from his usual frontrunning tactics to take back early and make a late run. He gets the services of jockey Julien Leparoux, who is deadly on the turf.

DEBUSSY (10-1) - He beat Gio Ponti in the Arlington Million in August. Gio Ponti would likely be the favorite in this race. DEBUSSY has also run well against the likes of TWICE OVER (3rd in last year's Classic). He rates a chance to take this field gate to wire at the 1 1/2 mile distance.

WINCHESTER (8-1) - This trainee of turf master Christophe Clement beat 3-year-old turf star Paddy O'Prado in his last race and lost a neck to Al Khali prior to that. He'll be coming late and maybe taking this thing down.

THE CLASSIC

It's finally here, the race we've all been waiting for. Drumroll please...

ZENYATTA (8-5) - This is not just a sentimental pick. I want her to win, yes, but from a handicapping standpoint, what's not to like? Yes, she's only beaten the boys once, in last year's Classic, but she's bigger than they are, she has a longer stride than they do, AND the pace of this race ought to set things up perfectly for her late charge. Haynesfield, First Dude, Etched and Quality Road will all have designs on the lead. Queen Z will love the long Churchill Downs stretch and as long as Mike Smith gets her in position early enough, she is going to make history.

BLAME (9-2) - Not very creative, I know, but it's hard to argue with this guy's performance in 2010. He will probably get first jump on the leaders and Zenyatta might have to run him down. He is game and well-trained. The most likely upsetter.

HAYNESFIELD (12-1) - This runner scares me a bit. He looks unbelievable right now, and if somehow, he's able to dictate a slower pace than appears on paper, he could be mighty tough to catch. He'll probably have too much company on the front end, but he's a threat.

I believe QUALITY ROAD, as good as he is, will have a tough time because he will have to jet out of the gate from the one post. LOOKIN AT LUCKY certainly rates a chance, but he's drawn far outside and has only faced three-year-olds. A must use underneath is MUSKET MAN. This dude has NEVER finished out of the money, and he's faced some of these before. FLY DOWN will be coming late for a piece of the action as well.

Best of luck to you today. I hope you can enjoy every minute of his historic day. I know I will.

Breeders' Cup Day 1 Diary

2010-11-05T21:17:00.000-07:00

A strange and wonderful opening day for the Breeders' Cup, which went something like this for me:

1:30 PM - Arrive at my University of Louisville parking lot. Walk to Churchill in brisk wind - real feel temperature = 46 degrees.

2:00 PM - Arrive at press box, survey the beautiful surroundings from 6 floors above the track:

4:00 PM - The Marathon, the most boring race in the BC (or so I thought) goes off.

4:03 PM (or 7 years to a dog later) - Eldaafer streaks to the wire in front of Prince Will I Am. I later learn that Eldaafer's trainer has been developing his "slow-twitch" muscle fibers to improve endurance, a nice piece of intel I would've preferred to have had at 3:55 pm. At least I included him on my pick 3 ticket, which is still alive.

4:05 PM - Someone yells FIGHT! in the press box. I thought two reporters were pummeling each other or something. We all scurry to the terrace to discover that below us, Calvin Borel is attacking his fellow jockey, Javier Castellano for cutting him off during the race. Borel gave new meaning to Ragin' Cajun. Hey, world, this a passionate sport! But is there a boxing division below featherweight?

4:10 PM - Official results posted. Prince Will I Am disqualified, meaning my pick, Gabriel's Hill at 25-1 finishes second. I only bet him to win. I mentally pull a Borel on myself.

4:20 PM - As I'm writing up the recap on the Marathon for The Paulick Report and looking up boxing terms, I quickly glance over my picks for the Juvenile Fillies Turf and realize that I had picked New Normal based on his last race at Woodbine (which I loved) and the fact that the Churchill turf had been playing to speed. But now, I'm fairly certain it's not playing that way anymore. I still love the race he came out of, so I switch my pick to More Than Real, who closed from the back and finished second in that race. He's 13-1. I'm definitely against Winter Memories because well, everyone else seems to think she's a lock.

4:53 PM - Nice call, dude. More Than Real storms home ahead of Winter Memories, keying a decent trifecta, since I liked Kathmanblu also, and she finished third. My pick 3 hits and pays $230 for .50. Since my previous BC betting has been an unmitigated disaster, I take a moment to appreciate me learning something - always be willing to adapt.

5:40 PM - After having tossed 8-1 Dubai Majesty onto my Pick 4 ticket at the last second, I'm relieved when she wins impressively in the Filly and Mare Sprint.

6:15 PM - My pick in the Juvenile Fillies, Awesome Feather, wins at 4-1. Unfortunately, I didn't do enough with it (I do have to work, you know), so I'm a little disappointed to have the winner and not much to show for it. At least I'm still alive in the Pick 4.

6:55 PM - I am now dead in the Pick 4. 45-1 Shared Account stuns the press box by beating heavy favorite Midday in the Filly and Mare Turf. Oh well.

7:25 PM - I hear rumblings that my pick, Life at Ten, is not looking well for the Ladies' Classic. I don't like last minute rumblings. I adapt once again and go with my second choices, Unrivaled Belle and Blind Luck, focusing on Unrivaled Belle on top because she's 7-1 and Blind Luck is the 9-5 favorite.

7:30 PM - Oh, what a night! Unrivaled Belle holds off Blind Luck keying a nice score to round out the day. It was my best BC day ever, although my joy was tarnished by the incident with Life at Ten. Based on the information available, the stewards should've held up the start of the race to look into what was being broadcast on ESPN about Life At Ten. Thankfully, nothing bad happened, but it was unsettling that she was allowed to race. It all happened so fast - there's probably plenty of regret about it this morning between the track and her connections. Maybe a lesson learned.

I'm sure the racing gods will punish me Saturday for having a good day on Friday but the glow from the Twin Spires and the excitement of Zenyatta's historic run will more than make up for it.

It's almost post time!

2010-11-05T13:01:00.000-07:00

Just a few minutes now before the first race of the 2010 Breeders' Cup. Churchill Downs looks fantastic, especially from way up here in the press box:

Breeders' Cup Picks, Day 1

2010-11-05T06:36:00.000-07:00

The Breeders' Cup is following me around, and I like it. The past two years the BC has been held at Santa Anita, near Los Angeles, where I lived, so I didn't have to travel very far to attend.

A few months ago, I moved to Louisville, and voila, another Breeders' Cup is in my backyard. Okay, so maybe I'm following the BC instead of the other way around, but eh, details.

Since I'm covering the BC for The Paulick Report, I'll be in the Churchill Downs press box for most of the next two days. That's not only a great view from the sixth floor, but they have heat up there. The high today is 46!

Anyway, these picks are my educated guesses at the horses most likely to win, not a predicted order of finish. As any serious handicapper knows, there's a huge difference.

MARATHON:

If there's any race in the sequence that perhaps would be better handicapped by throwing darts at a board, it's this one. A mile and 3/4 on the dirt? Maybe nowhere else in the world will you find such a long race on dirt. I heard they might use a sun dial to time it.

1. BRIGHT HORIZON (10-1) - Believe it or not, this horse is running a shorter race than he did last time. He's shipping in from Ireland, where he won a two-mile race on the turf in September. Big question mark on dirt, but he's the son of one of the world's great sires in Galileo and that's good enough for me. He clearly has the foundation for a race like this.

2. ALCOMO (6-1) - You might think speedier horses have a disadvantage going this far, but quite the opposite. The farther they go, the more speed has an advantage if the horse can dictate the pace. There isn't much speed in here, so ALCOMO might inherit the lead. Rafael Bejarano is riding, and he's simply been fantastic.

3. GABRIEL'S HILL (20-1) - Bombs away! Might as well shoot for a price in this race. If Alcomo doesn't take the lead, GH might. GH has been working lights out at Churchill and looking fabulous.

One of these days, GIANT OAK is going to win a race. He's been right there the last two, but he can't... seem...to...get... there. Not sure he gets enough pace to run at here. But maybe the extra distance gives him a shot. AWESOME GEM is the classy favorite, but I'll try to beat him.

JUVENILE FILLIES TURF:

Boy, this is a tough race, but here's a crack at it:

1. NEW NORMAL (10-1) - The Churchill turf course tends to play to speed, and in this bunch, I believe she's the fastest. WYOMIA might get that label, but NEW NORMAL comes out of the fastest turf race in the group, and she could go gate to wire.

2. KATHMANBLU (10-1) - Everyone seems to think WINTER MEMORIES (2-1) is a lock, but her last race was no faster than a lot of the fillies in here. KATHMANBLU's 1 1/16 mile races have been just as fast. I'll take her over WM as the deep closer.

3. TALE UNTOLD (15-1) -It's hard to ignore the Europeans on the grass, and this one beat TOGETHER (5-1) last out going 7 furlongs at Newmarket in Britain. Looked like she was crying out for further, and she gets another furlong today.

FILLY AND MARE SPRINT

Again, close your eyes and find a nice sharp object to throw at a cork board. By the way, it's not because, in general, racing is a crapshoot. It's only because these races are filled with the best of the best, and it's tough to separate them in many cases. That's why the BC is so awesome.

RIGHTLY SO seems a deserving favorite. In her last 10 races, she's had the lead at nearly every point of call, and she's won seven of them. But this race seems more complex than that:

1. EVENING JEWEL (15-1) - That's right, the filly that's won half of her last dozen races and been in the money every single one of them is 15-1. She rarely wins by more than a nose hair, but neither does Zenyatta.

2. GABBY'S GOLDEN GAL (15-1) - She hasn't raced since January, so that should be a strike against her. But trainer Bob Baffert is known for being sneaky good with this kind. Think MIDNIGHT LUTE (long layoff winner in the BC Sprint TWICE).

3. SECRET GYPSY (12-1) - She's a longshot, but she's won her last three races by at least a length, albeit against lesser competition. Her speed figures t'ain't bad.

The near-favorite INFORMED DECISION is only five years old, but she seems like a grandmother as much as she's been on the scene. Still, never count her out of a big-time sprint.

JUVENILE FILLIES

1. AWESOME FEATHER (6-1) - Maybe you're sensing a theme. Anyone can give you AZ WARRIOR. She's the favorite, and maybe she'll win. But in a race for barely-formed two-year-old girls, I have to look elsewhere. Although she's been racing at Calder against who-knows-what, AWESOME FEATHER has beaten her competition by a combined 17 lengths in her last three starts.

2. THEYSKENS' THEORY (10-1) - The filly named after a New York fashion label is racing in the US and on dirt for the first time, but she has a dirt pedigree to die for, by Bernardini, out of the Summer Squall mare, Heat Lightning.

3. JOYFUL VICTORY (15-1) - 'Nother longshot, but any two-year-old by Tapit is a potential sit-up-and-pay-attention runner.

FILLY AND MARE TURF

Alright, so, everyone on the planet has penciled in MIDDAY to win this thing. She's the mare from Europe who won it last year, and admittedly, she looks a tough nut to crack. But let me give you three alternatives:

1. HARMONIOUS (6-1) She's only three, and that's a strike against. It's tough for a three-year-old to win this race. But it's been done before, and I've seen her work in the mornings at Churchill, and there probably isn't a horse in the Breeders' Cup that looks better moving over the track than her. She has a gorgeous stride. It doesn't equate to winning a race like this, but she won her last race by almost five lengths, so I wouldn't toss her.

2. KEERTANA (30-1) - Laugh all you want, but this filly loves Churchill and the distance, and she's trained by Tom Proctor, who's been known to win a BC race at 47-1. I certainly would play her underneath in any event.

3. ECLAIR DE LUNE (15-1) - Now, I have you rolling in the aisles. But her form is sharp, and she's trained by Ron McAnally, a very astute guy.

The Japanese filly RED DESIRE is getting lots of attention as are Europeans HIBAAYEB and PLUMANIA. I don't doubt any one of them could win this, but I'll stick with my three.

LADIES' CLASSIC:

This race is filled with exceptional females. I could make a case for half the field, at least:

1. LIFE AT TEN (7-2) - I'm a sucker for horses who simply win. She's only won seven of her last eight starts. None of them have come at Churchill, which could be an issue, but it's hard to argue her record lately, and she's looked great in the mornings.

2. BLIND LUCK (9-5) I find it impossible to leave this filly out of the exacta. She's been in it 8 of the last 10 times. But as a three-year-old, she's also facing elders for the first time, and that's always tough. She'll be storming home late, and she will make this race a nail biter, no matter what.

3. UNRIVALED BELLE (8-1) - She looks fantastic on the track in the mornings, but she's been beaten the last three races by Todd Pletcher's tandem of LIFE AT TEN AND MALIBU PRAYER, so I have hesitation backing her to win. Still, I like her a lot.

Besides MALIBU PRAYER, it's hard to ignore HAVRE DE GRACE. She's battled with BLIND LUCK the last three races right to the wire, winning one of them. But you can't pick 'em all.

If I've learned anything while playing the Breeders' Cup, it's that you should pick a couple of spots and go for it. You only need to be right once to take down a nice score. Good luck!

Zenyatta goes back in time, beats all-time greats

2010-10-30T20:55:00.000-07:00

The debate over whether Zenyatta is the greatest horse ever will, frankly, never be settled. If she wins the Breeders' Cup Classic, it's hard to argue against her, but people will. She can't race against the greats of the past.

Or can she?

The NTRA has produced a race simulation pitting Zenyatta against some of the great horses in racing history - Citation, Affirmed, Rachel Alexandra and others.

You can watch the virtual race below. Secretariat is notably absent. I assume he was a late scratch OR the result was specifically designed as a Zenyatta promotion. Decide for yourself. I'm as big a Z fan as there is, and she has won every race when certain other greats lost races (sometimes more than one), but this may border on suspicious.

No matter. It's just kind of fun to watch:

So You Think you know racing

2010-10-30T20:26:00.000-07:00

Can you imagine a World Series pitcher coming back on two days rest? Or an NFL team playing a game the Thursday before the Super Bowl? Or the Kentucky Derby winner racing the Wednesday before the first Saturday in May?

Well, the probable favorite for the Melbourne Cup just won a race today, and he's running in Australia's biggest race on Tuesday.

So You Think won a top level stakes, the Group 1 Mackinnon on Saturday at 2,000 meters (1.2 miles), and he'll run in the $6 million Melbourne Cup at 3,200 meters on Tuesday.

So You Think has won 8 of 11 career starts, so he's clearly a superhorse. But he gives new meaning to superhorse if he pulls off a win after only two days rest against a field of 18 other top horses.

I suppose it's a cultural thing. It used to be in this country that horses ran a lot more often. Not that long ago, people wouldn't bat an eye at a horse running back in a week. Today in the US, at least at the highest levels of competition, a minimum of three weeks is usually required and sometimes quite a bit more.

So when I read that So You Think raced today, I was like, WHAT? I thought it was a mistake, a misprint, an April Fools joke, since it's Spring in Australia.

But no, it's just a finely-tuned beast on top of his game, and connections that have no fear.

I love it.

Of course, the welfare of the horse is always the top priority, but owners and trainers in this country are far too conservative about what their athletes can do. Exhibit A: The controversy over Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta. Rachel retires after a fantastic work. Zenyatta's connections are accused of "dodging" certain competition.

I have nothing but the utmost respect for Zenyatta and her handlers. She has stayed sound and healthy and has won every race in her career. What more is there?

But there's a different kind of respect for teams that aggressively place their horses and trust their athletic ability. Yes, Thoroughbreds are fragile, but they have also proven to be amazingly resilient. If you have horse, let him (or her) run.

And if you have a horse that likes win, by all means put them on the track every chance you get.

So I Think.

When you know, you know

2010-10-10T22:26:00.000-07:00

There are so few times in horse racing that you genuinely know what's about to happen, that it is absolutely essential that you take advantage when you do know.

Case in point -- Sunday's 6th race at Keeneland. I was privy to a conversation on the backside at Churchill Downs that involved one of the horses in that race. I was told that Dancinginherdreams, trained by John Ward, was an extremely fast two-year-old filly making her first-ever start. The sense I got from the conversation was that this filly was ready to win first out and then some.

Well, she did -- in spectacular fashion. Dancinginherdreams checked badly on the backstretch, closed from last in a field of 12, circled widest of all for the entire race and still won easily by open lengths, under a hand ride by Julien Leparoux. I dare you to find a better maiden victory first-time-out than that.

Yeah, I made a few sheckles on the deal, but since I'm not one to bet first-time starters very often, I didn't clean up like I should have.

Part of the problem was that, obviously, the word got out within the racing circle, that this filly was something special. She was bet down from 10-1 morning line to 3-2 at post time.

But I've seen plenty of high morning lines get bet down to low odds and finish up the track.

The difference, in this case, was that I knew she was something special. It's not like I was watching TVG and heard someone make a random comment. I had actual first-hand knowledge about this filly.

I guess since I've chosen to immerse myself in racing as a new career, I should start taking this information a bit more seriously. Had I considered this situation a stone-cold lock, I would've done a lot better.

Of course, nothing is a stone-cold lock in this sport, but if you can get close to it, opportunity goes begging if you don't pounce.

There was another case last week of a colt I had seen work out at Churchill, and I knew because of the race he was entering, he should win easily. Again, because of my background as a racing fan but not an "insider," I went light in my betting. He won by eight lengths with the greatest of ease at 5-2, a ridiculous price in hindsight.

While it may seem frustrating, it's also encouraging that I'm two-for-two with something resembling inside information.

I suppose the point is that if you genuinely know something, you know it. You don't even have to have inside info. You just have to have a logical explanation, based on valid evidence. Even before I arrived here, there were plenty of cases where I had no inside information but had picked up on something legitimate and it proved to be correct, after putting in the work to figure it out. An example is the turf course bias at Gulfstream over the winter, which I'll be happy to explain if you're interested.

Conversely, if you think you know something but in your mind, you actually know you're just guessing, the gods will sort you out and punish you with a vengeance. I have met the devil at the crossroads many times by hoping shortcuts will work.

They never do.

Figuring out the difference is the key to being successful in this game.

As for Dancinginherdreams, she should absolutely run in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies if at all possible. Her maiden win was so impressive, I won't be the least surprised if she wins the thing.

But now, everyone else knows exactly what I know.

A horse lover's dream day

2010-10-09T12:37:00.000-07:00

What could be better than opening day at Keeneland, with a dash of World Equestrian Games and a sprinkling of morning workouts with the Kentucky Derby winning jockey?

Such was my Friday:

6:00 a.m. Pick up my buddy from the Equine Business program at the University of Louisville.

6:15 a.m. Arrive on the backside at Churchill Downs and visit with the trainer my friend is working for.

6:25 a.m. Shake hands with jockey Calvin Borel, winner of the last two Kentucky Derbies. He's working one of the trainer's horses. Conversation:

"Hi, Calvin, nice to meet you.
"Good to meet you, Scott. Whew, whee, we almost didn't make it! There was a plane landed on the freeway!
"Oh yeah, I heard about that."
"Yeah, we were driving in and I look over and there's a plane! Man, I said, there's a plane on the freeway! Can you believe that? A plane on the freeway! I was like, whaaaat?
"Oh yeah?"
"Yeah, whew-whee, boy, I wasn't sure we were going to make it on time! Geeeee!"

The point being, Calvin is exactly the person you see on television. It was 6:30 in the morning, and he was jacked up 100% Cajun. What a character.

6:35 a.m. 5 furlong workout complete - very nice three-year-old, going easy, wrapped up by Calvin, lots in the tank.

7:15 a.m. Breakfast at a hard-core diner. Friendliest waitress in the world.

8:15 a.m. Pick up Daily Racing Form for Keeneland at the pharmacy across from Churchill Downs. Head to Lexington.

10:00 a.m. Arrive at Kentucky Horse Park for the World Equestrian Games.

10:30 a.m. Watch acrobats perform "vaulting" on the back of a draft horse. See photo above.

10:45 a.m. Sit in the stands for a game of "Horse-Ball," which is best described as basketball on horseback. In fact, it is exactly like basketball on horseback. I saw a female rider "box out" a male rider with elbows and then swish one in the basket!

These riders have incredible balance and agility. See what happens when the "Sputnik"-looking ball almost hits the ground:

11:00 a.m. Watch Standardbreds, Hackneys and Irish Connemara ponies perform. All of these horses are gorgeous in their own way.

There are few things more beautiful than a horse in full flight:

11:30 a.m. Catch shuttle to our parking space 2 miles from the Games (which cost $20). Ouch.

12:30 p.m. Arrive at Keeneland race course, where the parking is free and the racing always fantastic.

Keeneland is special because the racing facilities are stunning, probably the nicest in the country. The backdrop isn't as breathtaking as Santa Anita's mountains (here, it's just horse pastures for miles), but I daresay the paddock is the most gorgeous you'll find just about anywhere:

That's Michelle Yu from TVG there on the right of the bottom photo. We also chatted with long-time TV handicapper Hank Goldberg for a bit.

4:15 p.m. Paracaidas wins a one-mile turf allowance with ease, Garrett Gomez on board:

5:20 p.m. Wickedly Perfect takes the Grade 1, Alcibiades Stakes for two-year-old fillies in impressive fashion, completing a nice double for my buddy. He was all over Wise Dan upsetting Hollywood Hit in the previous race. I thought Hollywood Hit was a cinch. I made up for it by hitting a $55 exacta earlier in the card.

No matter. I could've lost all day, and it still would've ranked as one of my favorite days of all time.

8 p.m. Arrive back home in Louisville, delightfully exhausted.

More of this please...

2010-10-03T07:41:00.000-07:00

The stars are aligning for this year's Breeders' Cup - hopefully the people running the show realize the golden opportunity in front of them, between the movie, Secretariat, and the real-life racing star who is doing a mighty good impression of Big Red.

From the video below, it appears that perhaps they do. The promo popped up on YouTube last night after Zenyatta's thrilling victory in the Lady's Secret stakes, her 19th win in a row. The final race of her career will be one of the biggest races in the world, the Breeders' Cup Classic November 6th at Churchill Downs, where she will try to end her career a perfect 20 for 20.

Astonishing.

If you missed the Lady's Secret, that's posted below as well. When I bet on a race, I always get a little adrenaline rush as the horses approach the wire, maybe a few fast beats of the heart, if my horse is involved.

I didn't have a dime on Zenyatta's race, and my heart was pounding out of my chest right before she hit the line in her usual oh-my-god-I-don't-think-she's-going-make-it-this-time!!! fashion.

She's in a class all by herself as a champion racehorse.

I love her. I will miss her. I have run out of words to describe her. Let's just roll the videos:

Keeneland Sales Update

2010-09-24T19:06:00.000-07:00

Earlier this week, I suggested a different way to look at the Keeneland yearling sales numbers. This is a follow-up to that post.

My equine finance professor at the University of Louisville, along with a fellow student, compared the sales results from 2009 to 2010 by using the percentage of horses offered instead of comparing day 1 to day 1, day 2 to day 2, etc as most people have been doing. Since Keeneland changed its format this year, the percentage method makes more sense. Here's an update on how the sale is progressing:

Update on Keeneland Sale Averages from Kate Ellis and Robert Losey

Scott Jagow was kind enough to let us use his blog as a sounding board on Sept. 21, where we argued that the cumulative averages for the September Keeneland Sale were overestimating what is really happening. We also predicted that the cumulative averages reported in the media would appear to drop substantially each day because of the unrealistic comparisons that result when session by session comparisons are made instead of comparing similar segments by percentage completion of the sales. We expect that when the sale is completed, the cumulative average (both ours and the reported in the media) will be up by 1-3%. If we’re right, this suggests two things: 1) the market may have bottomed out and is hopefully starting to turn up (we predict an increase in the November Sale averages because of diminished supply effects), and 2) there is a better way to compare sales from one year to the next than what the media has been reporting.

The first two columns below report our calculations for the sale. In the last column we provide the media calculation of the cumulative average as reported for days 9-11.

Sale Change Ellis/Losey Media

From Comp Calculation Calculation

In 2009 of Cumulative of Cumulative

Day Change Change

1 +49% +49%

2 +44% +46%

3 -41% -6%

4 - 7% -6%

5 +18% -2%

6 +39% +3%

7 +2% +2%

8 +29 +4%

9 -27% +2% +24.3%

10 +1% +2% +12.3%

11 -10% +2% + 9.9%

Note that the first two sessions appear to be anomalies, and they are. This is the first time that Keeneland has used night sessions for days 1 and 2, and the “super select” nature of the first two sessions resulted in a skyrocketing average for those sessions. The third session drastic drop off is also predictable. Keeneland attempted to equalize the quality of yearlings for sessions 3 through 7 this year, while in 2009 session 3 was probably the third best group of yearlings. Thus the comparisons of sessions 3 and 4 this year suffered, while the comparisons of session s 5 and 6 this year were favorable relative to similar segments last year.

An ode to Presious Passion

2010-09-22T20:12:00.000-07:00

Most racehorses only shine for a short period of time. That's just the way it is in racing. Better enjoy it while it lasts.

Presious Passion is one of those horses that sparkled brilliantly, and now, may only leave memories in his wake.

Less than a year ago, Presious Passion nearly beat one of the best turf horses in the world in one of the biggest turf races in the world. The Breeders' Cup Turf is a $3 million, Grade 1 race of the highest order. At long odds, Presious Passion lost by half a length. He ran his guts out, as he always does.

But today, 10 months later, he ran in a $65,000 N2Y optional claiming race on a Wednesday afternoon at Delaware Park. He finished a well-beaten fourth.

At first, I was simply sad. Sad that this once bright star was clearly fading. But that is hardly the way to remember Presious Passion.

Those who follow racing closely know Passion well. He is the Steve Prefontaine of the thoroughbred world. Prefontaine was a brilliant long-distance runner whose own star faded way too soon (he was killed in a car crash). Prefontaine was renowned for his theory that running a race was a work of art. He believed the only way to run long distances was to go flat out as fast as you can until you have nothing left. To him, winning any other way -- like drafting on his opponents -- was chickenshit.

Pre would've loved Presious Passion. Look at him in the Grade 1 United Nations, opening up 20 lengths in the first half of the race. That's him waaaaay out in front. You see that time, 45.1, in the upper corner? That would be a scorching time in a race threefold shorter than this! 99% of racehorses could never survive that pace.

Presious Passion won. He won quite often this way, screaming to the lead in a fashion that would be a suicide mission for most horses.

Like Pre, Presious Passion only knew one way to go -- flat out, in front, until he had nothing left.

In another race, Presious Passion opened up a huge lead and then was passed in the stretch, seemingly done. But he fought back, and just feet from the wire, he rallied past what looked to be the winner. That rarely happens in racing. Once a horse is passed in the stretch, he's usually finished. Presious Passion simply would not quit. It was an amazing moment.

Today, in a much lesser race, I saw a spark of the old Presious Passion. He was passed in the stretch, and once again, he tried to re-rally . If you paid attention, you could see his will to win. He was clearly saying, I am still all heart. His body just wouldn't cooperate.

All of this sounds like an obituary for Presious Passion's career. Perhaps the race he ran today was too short. He seems to excel at distances beyond today's 1 1/16 miles. Maybe he'll re-rally again. But more likely, at age 7, Passion's extraordinary days are behind him.

I, for one, am glad to have witnessed his greatness. Here's a toast to Pre-sious Passion:

A horse of a different statistical color

2010-09-21T18:44:00.000-07:00

There's been a lot of talk about the sales numbers coming out of the Keeneland yearling sale. We've heard double-digit percentage gains thrown about by the media and Keeneland itself.

It's heartening to hear these numbers, since we all want to see the racing industry bounce back from the recent crushing economic blows. But are the numbers accurate?

It's fair to question them since Keeneland changed its sales format this year but hasn't changed its method of comparison -- that is, for example, comparing Day 1, 2009 to Day 1, 2010. If there are fewer horses being offered the first two days of the sale this year, it seems there should be an adjustment in the way the two years are compared.

We've been talking about this quite a bit in my equine finance course at the University of Louisville, and our professor has come up with an alternative method. He's comparing the sales in terms of percentage of horses catalogued. It makes sense.

I can't say with 100% certainty that his method is without flaw or that the numbers are 100% accurate (although I'm confident that they are), but it gives us a different way to measure the Keeneland sale in any case. It's important to look at these things with a healthy dose of realism, even though we might want to see eye-popping numbers. So, without further adieu, here's professor Robert Losey's explanation:

Keeneland September Sales Results: Are They Really Up That Much?

Making sense of what is happening to prices at the Keeneland September sale is especially difficult in 2010. There have always been problems in comparing one year to the next: One complication relates to the length of sales. In 2008 Keeneland September had 15 sale sessions: In September 2009 it had only 14. Reports we have seen compared the first day 2009 to the first day 2008 and continued the comparison out until they compared the 14^th (which was the final) day 2009 to the 14^th day 2008. This left the 15^th (final) day 2008 in a state of limbo where it was not compared to anything. More reasonably, it would have made sense to compare the two final days (14^th day 2009 and 15^th day 2008) to each other, as each had similar quality horses.

This year, comparisons have become much more difficult because of Keeneland’s new format. Should the 105 horses from day 1 2010 be compared to the 207 horses offered on day 1 last year? Should day 6 this year, which is still part of the select portion of the sale, be compared to last year’s non-select day 6, or to day 4 in 2009, the final select day last year?

Kate Ellis, an equine certificate student in the Equine Industry Program at the University of Louisville, working with Robert Losey, Professor of Equine Management, has devised a statistical “fix” that makes comparisons of sale averages from one year to the next more logical. Rather than report day by day comparisons, the Ellis approach compares the day 1 sales this year (which made up the first 2.16% of the total yearlings offered) to the sales average for the first 2.16% of horses from last year’s sale. Subsequent comparisons follow similar lines, always comparing horses offered in comparable percentage segments of each year’s sale. This approach has the salutary effect that it is more likely to compare horses of similar quality: Early-sale horses are compared, mid-sale horses are compared, and end-of-sale horses are compared.

Because of the change in the format for the 2010 sale, which featured very small first and second-day “super-select” yearlings, our method, though an improvement over what is typically being reported, still provides an apples-to-cranapples comparison on a day-by-day basis for the first six sessions for 2010. However, with the completion of the sixth session of Keeneland on Friday, our method provides an apples-to-apples comparison for the cumulative average starting with day 6 and for each subsequent session. Going forward our method also provides a useful basis for comparing each 2010 sale day to a comparable segment of last year’s sale.

Compare our method to reports from other sources. For the second Monday (Sept. 20, 2010), other sources compared this session, which was the eighth session, but the second non-select session in 2010, to the eighth session 2009, which was the fourth non-select session in 2009. Not surprisingly, because Keeneland tries to place yearlings with the highest values early in a sale, the 2010 eighth session, which was substantially earlier in the sale relative to the 2009 eighth session based on the fraction of horses offered, generated much higher sales prices.

The eighth session in 2010 offered yearlings that fell into the range between the first 24.4% of horses offered and those following the first 31.2%.

Results from the first six segment-to-segment comparisons (based on percentage completion of each sale) are not surprising. The two night “super-select” 2010 sessions outdid comparisons to last year. The four-day select sessions that followed the night sessions started off looking weak, but only because this year’s sessions 3-6 represented similar quality horses, while last year’s sessions started with the higher quality yearlings and proceeded down the quality ladder each day. Comparisons of 2010 (Sunday) session 7 with yearlings from comparable segments of the 2009 sale showed a slight gain. Our reported gain of 2.4% compares to the reported gain of “almost 50%” generally reported by other sources for session 7.

Comparisons of the cumulative averages using our methodology yield a similar story. Most media outlets reported that the cumulative average was up approximately 18% through Sunday. Using our approach we calculate an increase of 4.1% through that session. We have extrapolated what the reports from the media are likely to look like for ensuing days. Using the session-to-session comparisons reported in most of the media, the reported cumulative averages will continue to overestimate the cumulative average each day, but by a lesser amount each day. If the favorable numbers we see for the eighth session continue, the final cumulative average will be up, but by single digits, probably closer to 5% than to 10%, and not by the double digit numbers that current media reports might seem to indicate.

Though we would have preferred to have seen double-digit increases, we would view a 5% increase as indicative that the market has bottomed. We would expect that the November sale, which will sell mares from a significantly smaller supply of mares that were bred in 2010, will show increased average prices over 2009.

At the Keeneland sale

2010-09-19T09:19:00.000-07:00

I thought I'd share my experience at the Keeneland auction this week, as I got to go behind the scenes.
Most of my experiences in racing so far have revolved around the track. But these sales are where the race horses of tomorrow are bought and sold, and it definitely gave me a different perspective on the world of racing.

A lot of the big-name trainers were there, looking for that next Kentucky Derby horse. Nick Zito, Bob Baffert. I was standing near Baffert as he inspected hip # 1368, a yearling sired by Ghostzapper, a phenomenal runner in his day. These one-year-olds haven't been named yet, so they're just a number at the sale. In this case, a number with a pretty nice pedigree -- a Ghostzapper colt out of a Skip Trial mare.

A fellow student in the equine business program at the University of Louisville tapped me on the shoulder and asked, "How much you think that horse will go for?" I had no idea, and in fact, I've learned that even the most astute observers sometimes have no idea. But I figured if Baffert was looking at him, I probably couldn't mortgage every house I've ever owned and still be in the bidding. We followed hip #1368 into the auction ring. Baffert did not come with him.

A few minutes later, the announcer described hip #1368, and the strapping colt strode into the sales arena. No one in the audience said anything, but I'm pretty sure there were internal "ooohs and aaahhs."

"Hey-diggity-digg-diggity-digg-diggity-digg-10-hey-diggity-digg-diggity-digg-20."

That's the only way I know how to describe the auctioneer's call. For six hours a day, that's all you hear all over the Keeneland grounds.

"Hey-diggity-digg-diggity-digg-30-hey-diggity-digg-diggity-diggity-digg-40. Or better yet, listen for yourself:

While the speaking in tongues continued, in the audience, everyone was stone-faced. It was nearly impossible to know who was bidding and making the diggity-diggs become actual numbers. After a few sales, I started to spot the bidders -- people wearing baseball caps who were giving signs like catchers to their pitchers. A little swipe of the nose here, a two fingered-salute there, and yes, the price just went up!

A couple seats away from me was a man in a baseball cap on a cell phone. I had seen him talking to Baffert earlier. I listened intently as the guy repeated the bidding prices into the phone. I assumed Baffert was on the other end, and he definitely seemed in the game for hip # 1368.

The bid spotter kept looking at the guy and giving him hand signals, asking without asking, "you in for $250,000? $300,000? The guy in the baseball cap ever-so-slightly nodded as the price went up and up and up. And finally, after a couple minutes of this, the diggity-diggs ended with the words: "SOLD, for $500,000!"

That's life at the world's premiere yearling auction. Two minutes, $500,000.

We spent some time in the repository, looking at x-rays. They didn't let us stay very long. They have very strict rules about everything, which are meant to protect buyers from getting taken. It's still Caveat emptor, though. Just like betting at the track. The more information you have, the better your chances for success.

We went to the barns and looked at the conformation of various horses that were about to be sold. As a racing fan, I'm sure I'm not alone as someone who doesn't really know what to look for. Did you see that horse's overstride? Watch where the front hoof lands and make sure that the back hoof hits that mark or exceeds it. That's a good sign. Are the limbs too close together? Bad sign. Is the pastern at the right angle so that it can cushion the impact of running?

Fascinating.

These are some of the components of finding a winning racehorse. Those who've been around horses for many years know this stuff by heart, but for others, it's a whole new world. I'm one of those people. And that's why I'm here.

I have a fairly good sense of pedigrees, but when it comes to physical issues, that's where I'm still a novice, and just spending a day at Keeneland was a fantastic education. A guy like Baffert, with his experience and keen eye, can spot a nice one, no matter the price. Me and my buddy, we were about ready to split a $10,000 Theatrical colt. I swear he had a great turf pedigree, but no one seemed to care. The price didn't budge from $10,000, and that is nothing when it comes to buying Thoroughbreds.

The thing is, you just never know. A couple years from now, I could see that colt striding home to victory in the Breeders' Cup turf sprint. Baffert's horse may never even make it to the track.

If he does, at $500,000, he better win a few races.

It's that time of year

2010-09-11T19:25:00.000-07:00

Tomorrow, Keeneland's September yearling sale begins, and I will be there to learn as much as possible.

As part of my studies with the Equine Business program at the University of Louisville, we'll be driving down to Lexington later this week to watch the auction in action. For those who might not have a firm grasp on how these sales work, here are a few things to keep in mind.

The auction lasts two weeks, and about 5,000 one-year-old thoroughbreds will be put up for sale. The first few days, you'll see the highest-priced horses - the Sheik of Dubai bidding against an Irish billionaire for a top Giant's Causeway foal - that kind of thing. As the days wear on, the prices fall off in general, but any given day, you can see horses selling for hundreds of thousands of dollars.

Horses are kept in one of 49 barns at Keeneland, and they will spend 2-3 days on site. Potential buyers will, in general, only get 3-5 minutes to look at a horse on which they might fork out thousands of dollars. They're trying to ascertain the horse's physical and mental characteristics, in addition to the pedigree research they've presumably already done. Buyers also hire veterinarians to examine the X-rays of thoroughbreds in the "repository," where about 35 digital images of each horse's bone structure are available. Popular yearlings will be viewed more than 100 times.

The sale takes place in Keeneland's auction ring. Did I mention how ridiculously gorgeous Keeneland is? Anyway, in a given day, about 300 horses pass through the ring, where an auctioneer sing-songs the live bids being placed from the audience. Bid "spotters" are in charge of figuring out who is actually bidding. It's not like your typical auction where people just shout out their bids, or raise a placard. Some people don't want their bids known, so the bid spotter has the difficult task of reading people's body language to determine whether or not they're making a bid. A nod here. A twitch of the nose there. Seriously, that's how it works.

The seller (known as the consignor) has the option to put in a "reserve" bid before the sale starts. This is the price at which the seller will buy back the horse. Sellers do this for two reasons. One is to possibly drive the bidding toward that price. The other is to set a minimum level below which they will not sell the horse. It's tricky. If you buy back too many of your horses, people will think they aren't worth as much. If you don't buy back any of them, they'll think you don't have any confidence in your horses. Owners who push the price of their horses too high and scare away bidders are said to have been "caught speeding."

Another fun piece of terminology is the "pinhooker." These are people looking to flip horses like houses. The term comes from Kentucky's tobacco heritage. A pinhooker is a device used to pull tobacco out for a look-see. Pinhookers are simply hoping to buy a horse for one price and sell it later for a better one. This is also a tricky business. If you buy a yearling in September, you'll probably have to hold on to them until the two-year-old sale in the Spring, incurring the expenses of taking care of the horse and hoping to god they don't come down with some problem.

Finding the right horse takes a good eye, in many cases a lot of money and almost always a bit of luck. Yearling sale prices have dropped considerably the past couple of years, but that's probably a good thing overall. As Jim Squires described it in his book "Headless Horsemen," these auction sales had become as ridiculous and sleazy as subprime mortgages. I'm of the opinion people should keep their heads on as much as possible.

I will post photos and stories from the "ring" after I go to Keeneland.

A non-solitary pursuit

2010-08-28T21:55:00.000-07:00

I played Saratoga's signature race, The Travers, from the simulcasting facility at Churchill Downs, and here's what I learned:

Let me back up for a second. I just moved to Louisville last week to study equine business at the University of Louisville. I'm doing a mid-career transition from radio broadcasting into the thoroughbred racing business. I'm following my passion, wherever that might lead me.

Anyway, in my most recent home of Los Angeles, where it takes at least an hour to get anywhere, I would've probably stayed home today and played the Travers through Internet wagering. I would've sat in my little room, studied my Past Performances (PPs) and put my money through Microsoft Windows instead of betting windows.

But since I'm in Louisville, and I'm studying the horse racing biz, I thought - hell, I'll just drive 3 miles to Churchill and play the races there. Was that a good decision or no?

Well, I parked my car for free and some guy coming out of the gate handed me his Daily Racing Form for free. That's a good start. I paid my 3 bucks to get in and walked into Churchill's amazing simulcast facility.

It's sweet.

I sat down at one of the betting "cubicles" and realized I needed a "card" to play. I got a card, swiped it into the machine, inserted a few bucks and voila! I'm ready to gamble. It dawned on me that it's not this way at every track. I just came from California, where I don't recall seeing anything this elaborate. At Churchill, I can watch any race anywhere on my little TV and place a bet at any of those tracks on the same touch-screen TV. It's like I'm at home!

Now we're getting somewhere.

But at home, I wouldn't hear this conversation as the horses approached the far turn:

"The number 8, he dead."

"He ain't dead!"

"Aw, come on, chalk eater, he dead."

"Just you wait, he ain't dead."

"He dead."

"He ain't dead!"

THEY'RE INTO THE STRETCH...

"He dead."

"He ain't dead!"

"He dead."

"He AIN'T DEAD!!!"

"He dead."

THEY CROSS THE FINISH LINE.

"See, he dead."

YES, HE WAS DEAD. BEATEN BY A NECK.

"I told you he dead."

As much as I enjoyed the scintillating race commentary, I had played for a couple of hours and wasn't doing well at all. I couldn't pick my nose. Finally, I hit an 11-1 at Arlington for a few bucks. The "he dead" guy congratulated me.

Turning to his friend he said: "See chalk-eater, that's how you handicap. Playing those 3-5's ain't gettin' you nowhere!"

Yeah, I thought, but I've still been pretty dismal all day. The Travers was approaching and with 8 minutes to post, I was cracking open the PPs for the first time. Not a good recipe for winning.

I glanced over the Form. I had picked A Little Warm to win his last race, and he did, so I felt some allegiance to him. I picked Trappe Shot in his last, and he finished 2nd. I picked Fly Down to win the Belmont, and he finished 2nd. The Travers was clearly a wide-open race, and I had no idea who to bet on.

The "He dead" guy poked me in the shoulder and asked, "Who you like in the Travers?"

I looked at my Form and the betting tote board. "Well," I said, "I think Afleet Express at 8-1 is a serious overlay. His odds should be lower."

"Number 7? Hmmm. Let me take a look."

The guy studied his form and spit out:

"He got a 6 furlong, 1:13 work up his ass! Breezin'! He got a 7 furlong work at 1:25 up his ass! Breezin'! And he's trained by Jack the Giant Killer (meaning trainer Jimmy Jerkens, renowned for upsets at Saratoga).

He gathered his buddies around.

"Hey, hey! This boy might be on to something. He on the 7! Jack the Giant Killer trains this mofo. And this horse got works up his ass!! Breezin!"

I felt a combination of flattery and confusion, trying to discern what exactly might be up the horse's ass. After a few seconds, I got the idea.

Lest you think this guy was just spewing nonsense, he proceeded to paraphrase from famed trainer Woody Stephens on a strategy I'd read about years ago but had forgotten: If you can breeze 'em at 6-7 furlongs at race speed in workouts, they're ready to go a mile and a quarter. Something like that.

I realized the "He dead" guy knew a thing or two. Suddenly, my pick seemed logical outside of my own mind. I grew brave.

"Cold exacta," I said. "Afleet Express over Fly Down."

"Aw man. Maybe," the guy said. "But the number 8, Fly Down, gonna win."

As it turned out, our two horses broke from the pack in the stretch and battled to the wire, neck and neck. Our little area was screaming and whacking each other on the arm as they hit the finish line. They'd all bet on Fly Down, including the "He dead" guy.

"I think the 8 got 'em," the guy screamed. "The 8 got 'em!!"

"I don't know, man," I said. "It's a photo. Looked pretty close to me!"

When the results posted, I was elated. Afleet Express had won -- by a nostril -- and I had the exacta with Fly Down in 2nd as well.

"Man, you had it right," the guy said, punching me in the ribs.

"Yeah, but I wasn't sure until you chimed in."

It's the truth. We often think of handicapping as a solitary pursuit. But if I was at home playing by myself, I might not have landed on Afleet Express. I might've stuck with my inner thoughts of being loyal to A Little Warm or Fly Down. I might not have found that extra jolt of confidence. And I wouldn't have had as much fun enjoying the stretch run or the elation of finally getting one right this day, when I had called the winning exact in front of other people.

As much as I love playing the races on the Internet, there's still something to be said for being in the presence of other people, and not just on chat.

This was my 2nd favorite Travers experience. The first being the time I was in the Saratoga stands near the rail for the race. Of course, that day, I didn't get a damn thing right.

That day, my horse, the guy would've said: He dead.

Getting schooled (not in the paddock)

2010-08-27T08:27:00.000-07:00

I've completed my first week of classes at the University of Louisville's equine business program. As a race fan, I thought you might be interested in the issues we're discussing in my courses:

Economics: We had a somewhat heated debate on the issue of Artificial Insemination. AI is banned all over the world for thoroughbred racing, but there's been at least one court case in Australia challenging the ban. The purists argue that AI will ruin the sport by watering down the gene pool. Theoretically, everyone might have a Storm Cat foal. Others say it's time to use the technology available to welcome more people (and countries) into the breeding business. And there could be measures that would limit the number of foals per stallion.

AI would likely result in the loss of certain jobs, like laborers who attend to the mating sessions and drivers who transport horses to breeding farms, but in the long run, AI would probably benefit the economy because the breeding business would grow. It's a contentious issue that won't be resolved anytime soon.

Finance: Once we get through the complex equations, we should have some fun in this class. We'll be discussing the dynamics of horse auctions and heading down to the Keeneland sale this fall. My professor is a breeder and admitted card-counter at the blackjack table who is given to trying almost any new method for making money on thoroughbreds. He looks for percentage discrepancies in the win/place/show pools and rather than actually handicapping races, he takes a more statistical approach to the amounts being bet in each pool for a particular race. I don't think I could do it that way, but if he can count cards, maybe that's the best method for him. It's interesting to hear his theories, in any case. We'll be devoting at least one class specifically to anomalies like long-shot bias, big-day inefficiencies and pick-6 carryovers. I don't remember school being this fun!

Equine management: This course is specifically about the nature of the horse, and I'm thrilled to be taking it. Like many handicappers and race fans, I'm lost when it comes to conformation - what to look for in young horses, tell-tale behavioral and physical signs, etc. I'm looking forward to understanding that much better. My instructor has been around horses her whole life, and I'm already learning things about their personalities and physiology that I didn't understand before. For example, can you tell by a horse's reaction if he is a) scared b) injured or c) trying to exert dominance? Pretty interesting stuff. By next week, I have to memorize all 45 parts of the horse!

Organization and Administration: In this course, we'll learn about how various horse enterprises operate -- racetracks, breeding farms, trade associations, auction companies, bloodstock agencies -- you name it. By the end of the semester, we have to create our own business plan, which should be a very useful exercise.

Industry Speaker Series: This could turn out to be the most valuable course of all, since it will give me the opportunity to network with leaders in the business. This week, we heard from the VP of brand development at Churchill Downs. Churchill has brought in people from various non-racing backgrounds to inject new blood into the marketing effort, and so far, it seems to be paying off. Night racing, "Ladies First," KentuckyDerbyParty.com, food and music festivals, television shows, and Derby Nation are among the many initiatives Churchill has launched. The message I got was that the social and entertainment aspect of the racing experience will be paramount to the future of the sport. Attracting new fans might require that the racing, quite honestly, takes a bit of a back seat to the entertainment end of things. But Churchill is also working on initiatives that will make handicapping races more accessible to the new fan. Think phone apps.

Regulatory Law: In this class, we're looking specifically at regulation of the horse industry. It's taught by an attorney who specializes in Kentucky racing issues. We discussed the only racing case to be heard by the US Supreme Court - 1979's Barry v Barchi. Harness trainer John Barchi argued that his suspension for a drugged horse was unconstitutional because he wasn't given a hearing before he was suspended, wasn't given a speedy post-suspension hearing and because the rules for harness and thoroughbred racing suspensions were irrationally different. The court ruled that Barchi wasn't given a prompt post-suspension hearing, but against him on the other two counts. The case has affected suspensions of trainers ever since. Off to the law library next week to start looking at more cases. Should be extremely helpful to understand the legal aspects of the sport.

Let me know if this stuff interests you at all, and I'll post future updates.

Well, classes and studying haven't left me much time to handicap the Travers. Better get to it!

Horse heaven humidity

2010-08-19T20:43:00.001-07:00

I've finally reached my destination -- Louisville, KY.

Holy mother of god, it is humid here. I have to change my shirt after walking from the apartment to my car. Welcome to the Midwest, you weather-spoiled Angelino.

I'm not complaining. I've died and gone to horse heaven. I was shopping at Kroger yesterday, and above me in the spice aisle was a banner commemorating War Admiral's win in the 1937 Kentucky Derby. Above the bread aisle was Secretariat. By the deli, a picture of the 1972 Run for the Roses, as they rounded the clubhouse turn.

I've never enjoyed a trip to Kroger so much in my life. As I put the groceries in the car, I could see the Twin Spires of Churchill Downs. They're directly across from the University of Louisville campus, where I will spend much of the next year. Pinch me.

I wandered through the beautiful campus buildings and picked up my student ID, feeling like a clueless freshman because I stopped at almost every map kiosk. Sure, I was about the oldest person eating free pizza at the student government welcome event, but no one seemed to wonder why the gentlemen with gray hairs on his temples was so interested in the student body president's initiative for swapping textbooks. Besides, I now have a student ID to prove that I am indeed a 40-year-old 5th-year freshman.

I stopped by the Equine Business building, where I will be doing my studies, and there on the wall was a mathematical analysis of the probability that a claiming horse will return a profit for its owner. E=CRTV3x*+& or something like that. I guess I will learn it soon. I am one happy horse geek.

Louisville is a cool town with a well-recognized arts scene, fantastic restaurants and some of the friendliest people on earth. In the Highlands area, there are five Irish pubs within two blocks of each other. None of them are chains, and I am digging it.

At one local pub, I ran into an assistant for successful thoroughbred trainer Michael Maker and struck up a conversation. That wouldn't happen in LA. And I've only been here two days.

I'm still searching for the blue grass, though. I have looked everywhere, and I don't see any grass that is blue. It's green, just like everywhere else.

But make no mistake, the ground here is special, a tie that binds horses and bourbon together.

Kentucky's grass sits on a bed of limestone, and when limestone seeps into the water, it makes the finest bourbon whiskey and the strongest horse legs imaginable. Near Lexington, you'll find multi-million dollar horse farms and distilleries, sometimes on the same property. They know all about the secret of Kentucky. I took these photos on my last trip here:

The last photo is a tree at Buffalo Trace, a fantastic distillery that sits on an old buffalo roaming route and where bourbon has been made since 1787. The tree is covered in bourbon mash from the distilling process, basically. It doesn't harm the tree. Just turns it black.

Blackgrass. Bluegrass. Greengrass. It's all beautiful to me.

Big Skies and Bikers

2010-08-12T20:16:00.001-07:00

My travel blog continues from northwest Nebraska.

I'm in the only town of substance for miles around here. Every once in a while, the town's college basketball team makes the NCAA tournament, and people say -- Chadron State? Where the hell is that? Well, here it is, in Chadron, NE.

Yesterday, I drove east from Billings, Montana and stopped at the Little Bighorn memorial -- the site of Custer's Last Stand. I wasn't planning to stop, but I'm glad I did. Here lies the remains of 220 American soldiers who were defeated June 26, 1876 by Native Americans trying to defend their land. It was one of the few victories against the US government.

Custer's gravestone is here, but he is buried at West Point.

The ranger told the story of the battle with so much passion, you'd think it happened last week. He explained how the Lakotas never wanted a fight, even though they far outnumbered the soldiers. The tribes couldn't afford to lose their warriors -- the men who provided and protected. It would take a generation to replace them, while a new US soldier could be trained in five or six months. The whole thing was very moving and made me ponder the senseless behavior of our government.

Later in the day, I stopped at Mount Rushmore, seemingly a monument to American brilliance. But the faces of our leaders are carved into land that was once sacred to the Sioux. The US government just took it from them. The carvings are pretty extraordinary, but I found Little Bighorn more compelling. Here's Rushmore from the parking lot:

Some photos without my car in them:

Not far from Mt. Rushmore is Custer, South Dakota. Custer is a good 60 miles from Sturgis, site of this week's gigantic biker rally. It doesn't matter. Bikers are EVERYWHERE around here. It's good people-watching.

Hey, I thought you were buried at West Point?

Here are some high-speed photos, and by that I mean they were taken while I was driving 80 mph (or less):

Why they call it Big Sky country. Wyoming:

If you look behind the biker's head, you can see the carving of chief Crazy Horse:

A storm brews over the grasslands of Nebraska:

Greetings from Wyoming

2010-08-09T23:09:00.000-07:00

My latest thoughts and photos from the road:

Yellowstone National Park is stunning beyond words, so I'll try to use as few words as possible and stick with my large photos and a few comments and stories.

Yellowstone sits on a volcano. It could erupt at any time, and when it does erupt, it will spew ash over half of the United States. Scientists believe it has erupted three times so far and is due for another explosion any century now. Until then, we get to enjoy its immense beauty.

The ground beneath Yellowstone is literally boiling. It creates strange geological wonders you won't find anywhere else. Like this:

This is not snow:

Double, Double, Toil and Trouble. A boiling sulfur cauldron:

Now that you've been warned that Yellowstone sits on a volcano, do you see anything wrong in this picture?

Apparently, some people don't understand the words DO NOT ENTER. Ranger Betty told me that every year, Yellowstone transports people to the Salt Lake Burn Center because they do stupid things like this -- walk on ground that could collapse at any minute and burn their legs to cinders.

I encountered other absolutely asinine behavior at Yellowstone. Early on in my drive through the park, I spotted a bison a few hundred yards away on a plain. I pulled over to grab a shot with the zoom. While I was doing this, two other cars pulled over, and the families inside sprinted toward the bison, leaving the doors to their mini-vans wide open.

When one of the families returned to their car, I said to the guy:

"That wasn't the brightest thing in the world."

"What?"

"You running after that bison with your kids. Last summer I saw a bison charge a family just like yours (lying). A couple weeks ago, somebody was eaten by a grizzly bear out here (not lying)."

"Oh, yeah, I heard about that."

The stupidity of tourists is unavoidable here, but thankfully so is nature's grandeur. Exhibits A, B & C:

At some points in the park, the wildlife comes to you. In Hayden Valley, the bison seem extremely comfortable with humans:

This bison and elk couldn't have been more than 20 feet away:

I did stop at Old Faithful, but I couldn't wait around for it to spew. Apparently, Faithful didn't get my itinerary ahead of time, so I was only able to watch it cough:

I haven't forgotten about horses during my journey across America. I've seen some amazing-looking equines along the way, including a completely white palamino. And others, in what I would say is definitely horse country:

I left Yellowstone on 212 East, which is considered by many to be the most scenic highway in America. I won't argue with them. It is breathtaking:

The road itself is amazing. It's not for the faint of heart. It reminded me of a Formula One course on the edge of a cliff. Check out the road:

When I reached the top of the canyons on 212 East, it was 52 degrees and magnificent (although the photos can't nearly do it justice):

The only words I have left -- it was worth every mile I drove to get here.

Blame-Zenyatta: Wedded Bliss

2010-08-07T22:05:00.000-07:00

They really ought to get married, these two. Blame and Zenyatta are just those rare horses who know where the wire is and know how to get there first.

It is rare, don't kid yourself. There have been plenty of great horses over time who've shown amazing talent but haven't fired every time they've hit the track. Zenyatta has already reached that status, and Blame is on his way.

I realize Zenyatta wasn't facing monsters in the Clement Hirsch, and I'm sure she'll get more criticism for that, but seriously, there have been plenty of great horses over time who've won and won and won and then suddenly against lesser, they've fallen short. She never, ever does. She always finds a way to win. Blame seems to be cut from the same cloth. I've been on his bandwagon for a long time now. While it took me a while to accept Zenyatta's unparalleled winstinct, Blame's desire to win was immediately obvious to me. I can't explain it. I just spotted it early on, and I'm no expert. I'm in love with both of them.

In my humble opinion, these two are the top horses in training, bar none.

Louisville, here I come!

2010-08-06T22:44:00.000-07:00

This post has nothing to do with horses or racing, but since I'm moving across the country (to Kentucky) to start a career in horses and racing, I thought I'd share my travel-blogging as I make my way:

After six years of living in LA, I left SoCal behind yesterday and entered a new low point in my life -- the lowest point in North America, in fact. My first stop was Death Valley, one of the few major sites in California I hadn't seen. I'm fascinated by extremes, and Death Valley has two of them -- heat and (a lack of) elevation. As I descended into the valley, my car thermometer kept rising. I drove down, down, down until I felt like I was going under the earth. But I kept driving down, down, down until I reached Badwater Basin, 283 feet below sea level, where the temperature was 117 degrees.

In the South, people say the heat feels like an oven. Here it's more like a blast furnace. In Hell. You actually have to pass through Hell's Gate to get into the national park. The photo on the left is the Devil's Golf Course, where if you played even 9 holes, you'd probably be dead. Down here, it really feels like you're at the bottom of the world with the weight of the planet (and the sun) pressing down on you. What a super fun national park!

I walked out on the salt flat which covers the basin, but I only stayed long enough to get a French tourist to snap a photo. This isn't a park for dilly-dallying, unless you've always wanted to be a raisin. I saw one woman who looked like she had rubbed her face with Crisco and laid down on the salt flat for an hour. Scary! I quickly bolted for the comfort of an air-conditioned car and made my way to Rhyolite, Nevada -- population zero.

Once upon a time, Rhyolite was a booming mining town. Today, there isn't much, except rattlesnakes and ghosts. I imagined what it must've been like back in the day as I strolled through the ruins of the bank, the general store and other buildings. This part of Nevada is extremely desolate. What am I saying? The entire state of Nevada is extremely desolate except for Reno and Vegas. The driving gets pretty painful when the only sights on the roadside are prisons.

I eventually made it to Vegas, where I stayed at the Imperial Palace. Back in the day, this place might've been dope, but now it's just for people who like to kick it truly old-school or unemployed people traveling across America who want to pay $28 a night. It's kind of a dump, but it's also right across from Caesar's Palace.

Vegas is the only place I know where you need a GPS system to navigate indoors. I mean, have you ever tried to get out of Caesar's Palace? This is the 2nd time I've gotten lost in the bowels of that casino, despite my determination this time to avoid such a fate. What else can I say about Vegas? It's the best people-watching in the world. The elevator doors opened to reveal three gentlemen speaking Danish, I believe. The scrawniest one of them was wearing: A straw cowboy hat, cowboy boots, shorts and a cut-off t-shirt that said MUSCLE BEACH. Take a moment to imagine that. When the doors closed, everyone giggled. Poor guy. He probably thought he was being a cool American.

I left Vegas this morning after playing a few spins of Russian Roulette. Hey, I like to live on the edge. I guess more accurately, I sat at a Roulette table where all the other players were people from Russia. And come to think of it, there were guns involved. The dealer kept bragging about his collection of Russian firearms and wanted to know the intricate details of weapons regulations in Russia. The Russians just nodded and put their chips on black.

Today, I drove though Utah to Salt Lake City. Utah is gorgeous. The expansive sky and prairies and the ever-changing mountains create a state of melancholy exhilaration in which you can legally drive 80 mph. When you come over the crest of highway 15 into Provo, the Rockies soar into view. Awesome. Three names I always enjoy -- Marvin, Thelma and Provo.

I'm sure somebody will get that movie reference. I passed a lot of people with motorcycles. I imagine they're heading up to Sturgis, South Dakota for the insane motorcycle rally they have every year. It kind of put a crimp in my plans. I was going to stay in Rapid City, SD, but thanks to Sturgis, the cheapest motels in Rapid City, SD are going for $300 a night! I can stay four stars in Beverly Hill for less than that. I'm sure thousands and thousands of Harleys would be a sight to behold, but I'm planning to skip that whole traffic nightmare.

Tomorrow, off to Bozeman, MT. In case you're interested, the official soundtrack to my journey across American includes: Hayes Carll, Son Volt, Wilco, Ryan Adams, Griffith House, Leonard Cohen and Bob Dylan. Songs available on Itunes.

Weekend Picks/TBA Challenge

2010-07-30T18:17:00.000-07:00

I've got my picks in for the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance Saratoga/Monmouth challenge. Some really tough stakes races this weekend. Thank goodness it's play money. Here's a link to the picks. Read more selections at the TBA site.

Here goes my stab:

Diana (G1 1 1/8 Turf Saratoga): A salty bunch this is! Maybe Forever Together finally puts it back together here, but I can't take 2-1 or less on her after five straight defeats. Anyone else in this field could win, given the right setup. I like the stretch out from a mile to 1 1/8 for Phola. She's shown a pretty nasty kick into some slow paces. And if she doesn't break slow like in her last race, I like her to run 'em down. Pick: Phola.

Jim Dandy (G2 1 1/8 Saratoga): My first inclination was to back Fly Down in this race. I thought for sure he'd win the Belmont, and with a bit better trip, he probably would have. But I imagine he'll be the favorite, and I'm not that sold on him yet. A Little Warm has run five bang-up races in a row, from 6 furlongs to 1 1/8 miles, a distance many thought he wouldn't like. He's versatile, gritty and has a race under his belt (the field's top Beyer at 105). Pick: A Little Warm.

Majestic Light (1 1/16 Monmouth): I don't have a strong opinion about this race, except that I'll try to beat the favorite, Cool Coal Man. Arson Squad, Omniscient, Indian Dance and Manteca all seem logical alternatives. I'll give Arson Squad the edge on back class. Pick: Arson Squad.

Jersey Derby (1 1/16 Turf Monmouth): There may be enough speed in here to bother Two Notch Road in his gate-to-wire bid. But he gets the rail, he's the speed of the speed, he cuts back in distance after getting gassed going longer and he's 3 for his last 3 on the Monmouth Turf. I'll take him at a decent price and hope he holds on. Pick: Two Notch Road.

Regret (6f Monmouth): I hated handicapping this race. I have no idea who's going to win it. Nobody stands out as being in top form. Maybe Lady Alexander takes them gate to wire, but I doubt she gets an easy lead here. Mistical Plan hasn't raced in 18 months. Everyone else doesn't seem to mind 2nd or 3rd. I'll take a swing with the Woodbine shipper who's never tasted dirt. She's by Distorted Humor and has the field's best distance Tomlinson. 8-1 morning line. Pick: Carem Crescent.

Matchmaker (G3 1 1/8 Turf Monmouth): Tough field. I think the front end might be a little crowded, which left me wanting a horse with a nice closing kick. Came down to Tottie and Cherokee Queen for me. Both seem in top form. Cherokee Queen faced half the Diana field two races back, got a little boxed and was still close on the wire in G1 company. Pick: Cherokee Queen.

Teddy Drone (6f Monmouth): Another tough race to handicap. I went back and forth on this one. Charitable Man has the class, but he's never run 6 furlongs and hasn't raced in a year. Riley Tucker has never run at Monmouth. So, I'm tossing the two favorites. I settled on the horses with good recent form on the track. Wildcat Brief lost a little momentum in his last race and might've nipped Roaring Lion otherwise. I'll take him. Pick: Wildcat Brief.

Oceanport (G3 1 1/16 Turf Monmouth): Get Serious is one serious Monmouth turf runner. In the United Nations, he had three other speed burners to deal with. This time, he doesn't have much competition for the lead, and he's cutting back to a more preferable distance. I don't think they'll catch him. Pick: Get Serious.

Haskell (G1 1 1/8 Monmouth): First Dude probably gets the lead here, but he'll have company on the front end. I think there will be enough speed to set it up for a stalker or closer. I don't trust Ice Box to close from Philadelphia or wherever he'll be early on. You gotta respect Lookin' at Lucky's "winstinct," but I'll try to beat him with a non-Derby Trail entry. Trappe Shot takes a big step up in class but his last two races are ultra-impressive. He's won his last four by a combined 29 1/2 lengths, and he had plenty left in the tank on the stretchout to 1 1/16. Those paired-up 105 Beyers stand out to me. Pick: Trappe Shot.

The Sweet Siren of Saratoga

2010-07-22T15:06:00.000-07:00

The first time I set foot on Saratoga's hallowed grounds, the place was eerily empty. As soon as I landed in Albany, I hopped in the rental car, made a beeline up Highway 87 and drove straight to the track. What else do you do when you've flown across the country to visit Saratoga Springs? I certainly wasn't going to wait until tomorrow.

The race day was long over. Once inside, I encountered no one. I'm sure somebody was there, but I couldn't see them. It was as if the track had closed years ago, and I had snuck in through a hole in the fence to see the old place. Tomorrow, I would have to share Saratoga with everyone else, but for now, it was just me and a track as old as the Civil War. I walked among the discarded copies of the Daily Racing Form, the picnic remnants, the empty beer cups, the chairs on top of tables and took it all in.

It felt right that we should meet this way, without all the distractions and the buzz. A rainbow appeared on the horizon, as if the track were telling me: All those stories you've heard about the magic of this place are true. I'm no ordinary racetrack.

The next morning, I awoke at 6 a.m. and headed back, lured by Saratoga's siren. That, and the smell of bacon. I knew breakfast at the track was an essential part of the Saratoga experience, and I wasn't going to miss it just because I had jet lag. Horseman Humphrey S. Finney once said, "Mornings at Saratoga are the best that nature has to offer. If there is anything better than having melon, scrambled eggs and coffee on the clubhouse porch while watching horses work, I haven't found it."

Me either, Mr. Finney. I couldn't believe how many people were there so early. The races were six hours away. The moon was still out. But the Saratoga sky was so perfectly blue and clear, I couldn't imagine being any place else.

After breakfast, I took the tram to the other side of the track and got my first look at life on the backside. Part of the beauty of Saratoga is that you don't need a press pass or a badge or an inside source to see areas that are off limits to the public at most tracks.

It makes you feel more a participant than a spectator. It makes you feel welcome.

From the backside, I watched two-year-olds learning how to break from the gate. I soaked up every detail of horses taking flight. I studied the trainers studying their equine athletes. I walked over to Siro's and listened to Steven Crist and others handicap the races. Saratoga had grabbed a hold of me already, and it wasn't even noon.

I strolled through paddock area, stepping between the families picnicking on the grass. I chatted up the locals and listened to their stories. Before I knew it, it was post time. I had gotten so swept up in the Saratoga morning, I had forgotten to do my own handicapping. No matter. I didn't come here just to play the races. I can play the races anywhere. I can play them from home. I flew 3,000 miles because I wanted to know why this place called to me like no other. I wanted to know this town and its people, its farms and its charms. Over the course of a week, I experienced it all, concluding with (what else?) The Travers. I left the next day, begrudgingly. But I knew Saratoga would one day invite me back.

It's late July. Thankfully, her siren calls again.

A tough sell. Or is it?

2010-07-16T12:04:00.000-07:00

This week's poll at the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance got me thinking about how I became a diehard horse racing fan. You can answer the poll and see the results below. The question is: Who is most responsible for educating first time racetrack visitors and turning them into regular patrons?

My story might be similar to yours. I went to the track on my own. I accidentally hit a $400 trifecta, and I was hooked. What a pastime! Of course, when I couldn't duplicate that feat, I realized this was actually work, and I needed to study. So I read every handicapping book I could get my hands on. I spent hours pouring over charts and past performances. I was obsessed with figuring out the game. I've spent the years since then chasing that horse, and I will likely spend the rest of my days in pursuit of that unreachable goal. The fun, for me, is in learning from my mistakes, improving my eye and my methods and my discipline.

But not everyone has that perseverance (insanity?) gene. Playing the horses at a dedicated level requires other qualities not everyone possesses -- a certain disdain for one's own money, a willingness to accept losing as a regular occurrence in your life, a proclivity toward solitary pursuits involving numbers.

So, where does that leave us in terms of attracting new fans and turning them into regular patrons? As a self-taught, self-motivated player, I'm fine with putting some of the onus on the fan himself. But are there enough people like you and me to reinvigorate the sport?

Maybe not. But that's where the racing business comes into play. The market will force racing to operate on a smaller scale -- contraction, as Jeremy Plonk puts it. The racetracks that survive will likely be the ones that can make regular patrons out of people who aren't going to bury their heads in past performance charts or might not even sign up for an online wagering account.

Being open to ideas such as betting exchanges, shorter meets and rewards for playing will help lure the casual fan into more participation. But racing also needs to sell the personalities of the game -- there are so many colorful characters, human and equine. Racing isn't going to get a swell of new fans playing Belmont on a Wednesday, no matter the incentives. It needs to focus on those aspects of the sport that are irresistible to just about any human being.

And that's where I come in. As a fan, I accept a responsibility in sharing the game with others, and not just teaching them how to bet. In that respect, I keep it simple. No tris and supers. I know that a winning ticket, no matter the odds, is the ultimate racing aphrodisiac. But even that isn't likely to get most people to play the game at my dedicated level. If they do, it's because they naturally have those qualities that create the died-in-the-wool horseplayer.

So, I always take my friends to the far turn to watch a race, where there are no betting windows. There, it's just about the grace and beauty of the horses and their innate sense of competition.

I tell them stories of arrogant trainers and quirky owners, about Brice Blanc's turf riding ability or Mike Smith and Chantal Sutherland's fiery relationship or Zenyatta posing for pictures in the paddock. These aren't gimmicks, and as much as we might cringe at melodramatic NBC vignettes during the Derby, this is the stuff that helps turn the casual fan into a follower.

My mom -- who never followed racing until recently -- eats that stuff up. Now, she calls me and tells me who she wants to bet in the exacta at Belmont. Not because she's studying PPs by candlelight, but because she's pulled in by the stories of rehabilitated jockeys and scrappy owners and by her awe of the horses, and their talents and personalities.

Playing the horses regularly is hard work. Selling the game to new fans doesn't have to be.

I'm a Cardinal!

2010-07-12T15:35:00.000-07:00

I just received my admissions letter from the University of Louisville.

For the next year, I'll be pursuing a Certificate in Equine Administration from the U of L.

It feels a little strange going back to college at age 40, but as I've explained previously on the blog, I'm trying to follow my passion for racing and build a career in the industry. I believe there are opportunities to help the sport grow again, and I want to be part of that.

For those who might be interested, here's a list of the courses I'll likely be taking this fall:

Equine Management: An introduction to the nature of the horse, and to those challenges unique to the management of equine enterprises... Emphasis on live-animal management practices that can dramatically affect profit and loss in equine-related enterprises.

Industry Speaker Series: Prominent individuals from a broad spectrum across the equine industry serve as weekly guest lecturers with student reports and instructor-led in-depth discussions of each speaker's presentation.

Organization and Administration of Equine Operations: Introduction to the organizational structure and human resources required for enterprises including breeding farms, race tracks and horsemen's organizations.

Equine Economics: Pretty self-explanatory.

Equine Regulatory Law: An introduction and review of regulatory law in racing jurisdictions throughout the US.

Equine Financial Management: Applications of analytical techniques to financial decision making in the equine industry.

If you'd like to read more about the program, click here.

In addition to the coursework, I'll be networking and looking for opportunities to get real-world experience - like say, at the Breeders' Cup, which just happens to be at Churchill Downs this year :)

Best quotations about racing

2010-07-09T13:10:00.000-07:00

Here's a collection of some of my favorite quotes about horses and racing. Enjoy and feel free to add your own!

"A racetrack is a place where windows clean people." -- Danny Thomas

"Fortunately my wife is understanding. When I come home from the races she never asks any questions, if I tell her I just ate a $380 hot dog." -- Tim Conway

"Horse sense is a good judgment that keeps horses from betting on people." -- WC Fields

"No one has ever bet enough on a winning horse." -- Richard Sasuly

"A real racehorse should have a head like a lady and the behind like a cook." -- Jack Leach

"I could cut through the infield and Ruffian would still beat me." -- Braulio Baeza

"I'm lucky because I have an athlete between my legs." -- Jockey Willie Carson

"The profession of book writing makes horse racing seem like a solid, stable business." -- John Steinbeck

"Money, horse racing and women, three things the boys just can't figure out." -- Will Rogers

"They must get to the end and go, 'We were just here. What's the point of that?'" -- Jerry Seinfeld on what race horses must think.

"Why, I expect he is one of the dumbest horses I ever saw. He don't know the difference between 115 and 135 pounds." -- Trainer Henry McDaniel

"That horse isn't fast enough to run past me." -- Owner Willis Sharpe Kilmer

"Citation will win, because he can catch any horse he can see, and there is nothing wrong with his eyesight." -- Trainer Ben Jones

"I admire the Turf writers, because it must be tough to write about something you know nothing about." -- Jockey Bill Hartack

"His legs are barely long enough to keep his tail off the ground. He probably takes a hundred more strides than anyone else in the race, but he's harder to pass up than a third martini." -- Sports writer Jim Murray on Northern Dancer.

"He's the kind of horse that if he wants to go left and you want to go right, you go left." -- Forego's groom, Don Moore.

"I've never seen perfection before. Secretariat's only point of reference is himself." -- Turf writer Charles Hatton.

"Secretariat is everything I am not. He is young, he has lots of hair, he is fast, he has a large bank account and his entire sex life is before him." -- Cy Burick

"I would sooner train a good horse than be President of the United States." -- John E. Madden

"People have opinions. Horses have the facts." -- Trainer D. Wayne Lukas

10 things I love about racing

2010-07-06T15:50:00.000-07:00

I'm a fan of the Equispace blog, and today, the blog's author, Geno, posted 10 things that don't bug him about racing. Since racing fans can always use another dose of positive attitude, I got to thinking about some of my own favorite things:

1. Come catch me. I'm a sucker for horses that open up 4 or 5, hell, 20 lengths on a field and can still win. Presious Passion, Acclamation, Get Serious, Mandurah. These guys run mile and a half marathons like they're in a 300-yard quarter horse race. They are equine Steve Prefontaines -- none of that drafting, stalking crap. They tell the racing world, hey, just open the gate, and I'm going to run as fast as I can until you tell me it's time to stop. I love it.

2. First-time turf. Boy, do I enjoy opening the racing form to find a first-time turfer with hidden grass pedigree. Heck, I'll bet 'em even without the pedigree if they are 3 or 4 years old and have shown more than a hint of speed on dirt. One of my favorite picks ever was a 90-1 speedball at Indiana Downs trying the grass for the first time. Gate to wire, baby. By far, this is my favorite handicapping angle.

3. Siro's. I love everything about Saratoga Springs, but handicapping at Siro's before the races and then going straight there afterwards to drink beers and swap stories about the day is pretty close to heaven.

4. The backside. If you're not in the racing business, a visit to the backside is rare (with the exception of Saratoga's shuttle trips). It's a mesmerizing place, where I love to imagine all the secrets being kept back there.

5. Zenyatta. I don't care what anyone says, Zenyatta is an amazing horse that beats everything put in front of her. It's even harder not to love her after you've seen in her person, prancing and posing for pictures in the paddock. She's a beautiful champion with an A+ personality.

6. 50-cent pick fours. I'm stealing this one from Geno. I, too, adore this bet. It suits my style of playing multi-race wagers. In a pick four, I usually try to nail down two singles and go as deep as I can in the other races. All it takes is one bomb in a pick four sequence to make it pay box cars, and I probably won't have the bomb playing 3x3x3x3. But I can rarely afford to hit the ALL button in a $1 P4. The 50-cent P4s can pay huge, too. I saw one at Churchill last fall that paid $180,000. That's a fat Pick 6 payout!

7. The far turn. I love sneaking down to the far turn to watch a race. At most tracks, I'm usually the only person there. The announcer's call and the crowd are so far away, all you can hear are the thundering hooves and the jockeys clicking their horses into gear for the stretch run. Best place to get race photos, too.

8. Harses, harses. One of these days, I'd love to try my hand at race announcing, but I'm not sure what my "thing" would be. Just about every announcer has a signature. In Louisiana, it's the French Ils Sont Parti instead of And they're off. The announcer at Fairmount park calls the animals harses instead of horses. And the harses are rounding the far turn! I love Tom Durkin's sense of humor and Mark Johnson's polish. Here in SoCal, I never tire of Trevor Denman's And away they go.

This race call by Frank Mirahmadi at Turf Paradise (where he imitates other announcers) is an all-time classic:

9. Winning. I know it's weird, but I'm just not a big fan of losing. As a handicapper, I don't mind getting beaten. What bugs me is when I lose a race in which I ignore one of my favorite angles, and that horse wins. Drives me crazy! But in keeping with the positive theme of this post, I'll just say that being right and winning money is awesome.

10. New fans. Taking a novice to the track and teaching them about the game is just plain fun. I've never taken anyone to the races who didn't want to come back again. The more we can share our passion for the sport with others, the more optimistic we can be about its future.

There. I feel better now. Thanks, Geno!

Am I Crazy?

2010-07-01T12:54:00.000-07:00

After almost two decades as a radio and TV journalist, I have decided to change careers and get into the horse racing business.

Yes, racing is a struggling industry, but that's part of the reason I feel compelled to take this leap -- I want to do whatever I can to help the sport grow again and find new fans. Besides, my current profession of journalism isn't exactly a growth industry either!

My plan is to move to Louisville next month and enroll in the one-year Equine Business program at the University of Louisville. When I visited the school, I was impressed with the staff's knowledge and connections. I believe it'll make for a good transition into the industry. And Kentucky's certainly the place to be for racing.

In the meantime, I'm hoping to brainstorm ideas that might eventually take off as their own business or be an asset to an existing racing organization. Some areas I'm thinking about:

Racing needs a national governing body. Every other major sport has one, and until racing unifies, progress will continue to be difficult. The mish-mash of state initiatives and regulations has stymied racing's potential.
The drugs need to go. Europe races without Lasix. Why can't we? Drugs have virtually murdered the sport of cycling, and horse racing is headed in the same direction unless the tolerance level reaches zero.
Diversify. Racing needs new initiatives to attract owners from different ethnic backgrounds. Racing is popular in Asia, South America and other places, but that is certainly not reflected in the ownership of horses in the United States.
Embrace the technology. Horse racing remains the only legal form of online betting in the US. That should be a huge advantage, but racing has been slow to capitalize. Companies like Betfair are making progress, but there's a world of opportunity waiting to be seized.
Simplify. The learning curve for people wanting to understand this game is fairly steep. Are there ways to make it easier for the novice to learn and enjoy racing?
Think international. After watching the passion stoked by the US soccer team at the World Cup, I'm convinced racing needs an international event where the horses truly represent their countries, not just their owners. People who never followed soccer in their lives were watching the World Cup this year. There is no greater passion in sports than pulling for one's country, and such an event could open new doors for racing.

I realize some of this is blatantly obvious stuff, and some of it may be wishful thinking. But I'm hoping to start a dialogue (with myself and others) to generate concrete ideas that can address these issues. There are people already in the industry who are doing this as well. You can even enter your idea into a contest at racingfuture.com.

As frustrating as the industry seems at times, all hope is not lost. Almost every person I introduce to the sport enjoys themselves and wants to come back again.

There's a future in that.

I'm trying to make it my future. Even if that means I'm crazy.

Thank you, Bluegrass Cat!

2010-06-30T14:39:00.000-07:00

Earlier this year, I entered the Freshman Sire Contest sponsored by Thoroughbred Times.

Contestants were presented with six groups of sires whose offspring were racing this year for the first time. The goal was to choose one sire from each group and create a stable of six horses that would produce the most total earnings in 2010.

So far, it's not looking so good for me. My rank is 667 out of 1,507 contestants. While that does put me in the top half, I've got a long way to go to threaten winning this thing.

More than two-thirds of my $297,715 in earnings have come from one sire -- Bluegrass Cat. In fact, his two-year-olds are the top money winners in the whole competition. It's not surprising, considering that his pop, Storm Cat, is the most highly-regarded modern-day sire. And Bluegrass Cat's blood is infused with greats such Secretariat, Seattle Slew, AP Indy and Northern Dancer.

Still, great bloodlines do not always equate to two-year-old winners at the track (or any winners for that matter!)

But not being an expert on pedigree, for me, Bluegrass was a hunch play. I remember picking him at 30-1 for the exacta underneath Barbaro in the 2006 Kentucky Derby -- the first Derby I actually wagered on outside of living room bets with my family. I was still learning the game at the time, so I don't know where that pick came from, but Bluegrass Cat is etched in my brain forever.

Other horses in my stable that have produced a number of winners so far are Bandini and Borrego. I was told by someone with solid insight into breeding that one of my other picks, Niigon, might turn out to be a good choice as well. The two-year-old racing season is just ramping up, so there's a long way to go.

Good thing, too, as my remaining choices, Hurricane Run and Strong Contender, have just about been shut out. Strong Contender's offspring have made a measly $148 this year.

If you entered the contest, I'd love to hear about your stable!

A New Jersey state of mind

2010-06-30T12:06:00.000-07:00

Who knew that New Jersey would become a hotbed of cutting-edge thinking in the world of horse racing?

First, it was the Jersey Shore's Monmouth Park shortening its summer meet to three days a week and fattening its purses. The experiment of having fewer but more lucrative race days has worked in every way possible. It has attracted bigger fields for each race, bigger crowds at the track, and more betting money through the windows.

Now, New Jersey is moving forward on a plan to introduce exchange wagering in the United States. Exchange wagering is a bit like Ebay for gamblers. Betfair, which owns the US horse racing network TVG, has been offering exchange wagering in Britain for about a decade, and the company is keen to see US states adopt it as well.

Customers on the exchange can offer each other betting odds. So, conceivably, you can shop around for the best odds on a horse you like. No waiting around until the race goes off, only to see your 5-1 odds plummet to 2-1 at post time. Plus, the exchange takes a much smaller cut of the action than bookmakers or casinos do, for those who bet that way.

It's still unclear how the US government might react to New Jersey's plan, and we still don't know how this might affect the normal parimutuel wagering in which the public sets the odds with their betting dollars. Tracks rely on a "takeout" from each parimutuel wager to run their business. Presumably, they would get a cut from exchange wagering, too, but it could be a smaller cut and exchange wagering could potentially eat into the regular parimutuel business.

On the other hand, offering a new form of wagering might attract new bettors. When I've taken non-racing fans to the track, they often ask -- can I bet against a horse? Technically you can, by not including that horse in exactas, trifectas and multi-race wagers, but exchange wagering would offer an alternative -- a direct bet on a horse to lose.

It's just one example of how an exchange might appeal to new fans and possibly make betting on horse races a bit simpler for some. Lord knows, it's hard to explain how to wager on the ponies to a novice. And that's not a good thing for the sport.

As the only form of legal online sports betting in the US, horse racing should look into this for sure. There will come a day when bettors can legally gamble on other sports online in this country, and something like exchange betting will be HUGE. Can you imagine the tax revenue exchange wagering could generate from the NFL season alone? At some point, states are going to realize this and go all in. The struggling horse racing business can get way ahead of the game by at least considering such innovative ideas.

Unlike some states, it appears New Jersey doesn't have its head buried in the sand.

Or should I say, shore?

Horses, hats and hangovers

2010-06-30T10:20:00.000-07:00

I'm full of jealousy today. Friends sent me pictures from their recent trip to Royal Ascot, the oldest horse race meeting in the world. They've held the five-day Royal meeting at Ascot Racecourse near London every June since 1768. The Kentucky Derby didn't come along for another 107 years!

Since I've never been to Ascot, I must live vicariously through my friends, Eve and Rico Gagliano. They were kind enough to send photos Rico took.

As Rico puts it, Royal Ascot is the most British thing EVER. A dress code is strictly enforced in certain areas of the stands. Ladies must wear a day dress of a minimum length. They will toss you out if your dress is too short. For the gentlemen, grey or black "morning dress" is required. And of course, a top hat. The ladies can wear just about any hat they please, even one that resembles a barbed-wire fence.

The etiquette authorities are full of suggestions for enjoying Ascot racing in a graceful manner: "Eating in public requires all private habits be closeted. Pace yourself, so neither hoover like a wolf nor pick like a sparrow. Bring food to your mouth rather than drop your head."

"Hangovers are generally self-inflicted, so you should approach the day after an evening's over-indulgence with stoicism, and keep your misery to yourself."

"A man should stand up to greet a woman when she first arrives. There is no need, however, to jump up and down like a jack in the box every time she enters or leaves the room."

Sounds like it might make for a pretty stuffy experience, but Rico says in the general admission section, The Silver Ring, it's much more relaxed. You can bring a picnic and beer and wine if you like. And people definitely do. During the meeting, Ascot attendees drink 170,000 bottles of champagne and 160,000 pints of beer. They eat 4 tons of beef and 10,000 lobsters!

The Royal Ascot meeting would not be Royal without you-know-who. Every day at 2pm, the Queen and other royal family members parade up the stretch in horse-drawn carriage.

One drunk Brit told Rico: "God bless her, Liz is the only lady in the nation who can pull off an entire outfit all the same color."

Drunken fashion critiques aside, there is some fantastic racing at Royal Ascot. One third of Britain's Grade 1 races (the highest level) for the year take place during the meeting. The highlight for me was probably Goldikova winning the Queen Anne Stakes. Goldikova is like the Zenyatta of Europe. I love watching this mare run. The past two years, she's flown over from France to dominate the Breeders' Cup Mile at Santa Anita Park. In the Queen Anne, she was the only female and as usual, she made the boys look silly.

Rico got a nice shot of the Albany Stakes, a race for two-year-old fillies, won my Memory. You'll notice the horses are running clockwise around the track, the opposite of racing in the US. Brits and Americans have to do everything the opposite way, don't they? Royal Ascot's course is also triangular instead of oval, and at a mile and 3/4, it's longer than any track in the United States (Belmont Park being the longest at a mile and 1/2).

To me, horses racing on grass is just about the prettiest thing in the world. Soon enough, I shall don my top hat and tails and make my way to Royal Ascot.

I promise not to hoover like a wolf or jump up and down like a jack in the box.

Especially if I have a hangover, which I shall keep to myself.

Horse Racing 101

2010-06-24T15:29:00.000-07:00

I'm hoping this blog will appeal to two groups of people -- those who already have a deep understanding of racing and those who might just be discovering its beauty, thrills and enjoyment. I'm creating a series of posts for the latter group.

If you've watched the Kentucky Derby or other big races, do you really understand what it is you're seeing? It seems simple enough. Horses run around the track in an effort to reach the finish line first. But it's a little more complicated than that, and knowing what to look for can make watching the races a more rewarding experience - financially too!

Every race actually begins in the paddock. The paddock is the fenced-in oval where the horses parade about 15 minutes before each race and where the jockeys climb aboard. To the trained eye, horses give clues about their upcoming performances. A fit horse will have a shiny coat and look well-muscled. He might prance around the ring and appear "on his toes." If he looks ready to run a big race, he most likely will. On the other hand, a horse with a dull coat or lethargic behavior might be telling you this isn't his day. A horse that is sweating too much (yes, horses do sweat!) or acting irritable might also be a bad bet.

Once the race begins, three things are vitally important in determining the eventual winner. One is the speed "fractions" that are usually given by the track announcer and shown on television. Simply, how fast are the horses going? The second crucial element is the race "shape." Where are the horses positioned in relation to each other? The third is the "trip" each horse is taking. I'll explain these further.

In the wild, horses run in packs, and that's exactly what they do in the Kentucky Derby or any other race. Each horse in the pack has a certain running style. Some horses like to run away from the pack as fast as they can while others -- called "closers" in racing -- enjoy loping along at the back, keeping their competitors in front of them before reaching their top speed. Still others, known as stalkers, run in between the frontrunners and the closers.

Before the race, do you know who the frontrunners are? The stalkers? The closers? Knowing this information can help you understand how the race might unfold. The Daily Racing Form (newspaper and online) provides past performance charts that show the "running lines" for each horse in their previous races. A horse that is consistently first or second during the course of his races would be considered a front runner. A horse that is usually 8th, 9th or 10th out of 12 for much of a race would be called a closer. Stalkers usually sit 2nd, 3rd or 4th as they make their way around the track, waiting to pounce on the tiring frontrunners. Horses are creatures of habit, and most of them have the same running style from race to race.

A horse that is the only clear frontrunner in a race has an important advantage. That horse and his jockey can dictate the pace. By taking the lead and then slowing things down, the horse in front can conserve energy and have something left for the stretch run. He often proves very difficult to catch.

But if there's more than one frontrunner, they might "duel" with each other, racing faster than either should be going early on. They often tire each other out and fade in the stretch, giving the stalkers and closers the advantage. For example, the Kentucky Derby is a mile and a quarter race. If the leaders run the first half-mile in 45 or 46 seconds, they are probably going too fast, and they are likely to run out of gas. But if they go a more leisurely :48 or :49, they should last a lot longer on the lead and could very well stay there all the way to the wire.

It's also important to note each horse's position vis-a-vis the rail. A horse running close to the rail is taking the shortest way around the track. A horse that is farther out from the rail is obviously covering more ground to get to the finish line. It's difficult to predict where the horses will be in a particular race, but the post position is an important clue. A frontrunner that breaks from the first spot in the starting gate is likely to establish his position on the rail. But a horse that starts the race on the outside farthest from the rail might be forced to race "wide" for much of the race and will have to cover more ground.

Finally, we must consider the "trip" each horse is getting. Is he being squeezed or bumped by the competition and possibly losing momentum? Or is he getting a smooth trip that allows him a fluid, relaxed motion? It can make all the difference. You can't predict trips either, but you can watch previous races (also online at the Daily Racing Form) and determine whether a bad trip might've cost a horse his last race. Maybe with a cleaner trip this time, he could be a good bet.

The 2010 Kentucky Derby provided an excellent illustration for all of these factors. Several horses in the race liked to run out front. Predictably, they ran very fast in the beginning of the race (:45 for a half-mile), and they were exhausted by the time they turned into the stretch.

Meanwhile, the eventual winner, Super Saver, ran a slower pace early, acting as a stalker. He also hugged the rail the entire race, giving him the shortest path to victory. Jockey Calvin Borel had Super Saver perfectly positioned to win. The horse that finished second, Ice Box, was a closer that also benefited from the frontrunners going too fast. Unfortunately, Ice Box had a horrible trip. He was forced to slow down and maneuver around other horses several times. He also wound up farthest from the rail at the finish, meaning he probably ran the most distance of all 20 horses. Second place was a pretty impressive result for Ice Box!

Every horse race is a new puzzle. They each have a different shape, a different pace and a different collection of horse personalities. The enjoyment comes from trying to piece it all together before the race and then hoping it unfolds as you anticipated. Knowing what to look for can make watching the races more enjoyable, and it might even help you pick a winner!

Remembering Ruffian

2010-06-22T23:18:00.000-07:00

Every so often, I check Netflix for movies about horse racing. There aren't that many, so I figure I've seen just about all of them. But every once in a while, something new pops up, and lo and behold, there was a movie about Ruffian I hadn't seen.

Sam Shepard plays the starring role, so it immediately had something going for it. The veteran actor and horse lover is cast as Ruffian's trainer, Frank Whiteley. For those who don't know, Ruffian was a champion filly in the mid-1970's. She ran 11 races, winning 10 of them. At every point of call in every race she ran, Ruffian was in front. She was so remarkably fast that no horse ever passed her.

Until her 11th race on July 6th, 1975.

It was a match race, of the sort you might remember from the movie Sea Biscuit. One horse against another. Ruffian's opponent was Foolish Pleasure, the colt that won the 1975 Kentucky Derby. It was rare that fillies raced against colts. It still is, for the most part, in this country. But the race came at a time when America was obsessed with the battle of the sexes, personified by Billy Jean King's win over Bobby Riggs in a tennis match.

The problem is -- horses ain't humans. And the speed of a match race can be unusually taxing. Maybe that's what led to the tragedy at Belmont Park. Perhaps it was something else. But Ruffian broke down in front of a nationally televised audience, as she tried to beat Foolish Pleasure to the wire. Several hours later, she was put down.

I don't recall seeing the race on TV, as I was only 5 years old, but I do remember strolling through the Ruffian exhibit at Saratoga a couple years back. I remember breaking down myself, from the weight of her memory.

For someone who loves horses and racing, days like July 6th, 1975 are almost too much to bear. Those painful moments make me question why I love this sport so much. They make me frustrated that perhaps another legion of potential fans will turn away in disgust as they see how cruel the sport can seem to these fragile creatures.

But had Ruffian been running free in the wild, she might've met the same fate. She could've taken a bad step and broken her leg, trying to outrun the colt next to her. Thoroughbreds are born to run. They love to run -- as far and as fast as they can. Yes, they are fragile, but there's always risk in any athletic endeavor. Because of horse racing, Ruffian was able to share her joy of running with millions of people. She did it exquisitely.

Ruffian ran like another famous runner of the 70's who died too young -- Steve Prefontaine. They both ran their guts out from the beginning of every race until they had nothing left. Something Steve once said seems appropriate here: "A race is a work of art that people can look at and be affected by in as many ways as they're capable of understanding."

For horsemen like Frank Whiteley, the health of the horse comes above all. There is no questioning that. Whiteley clearly struggled with the owner's decision to put Ruffian in that race. And I'm sure it pained him for the rest of his life.

I can't say Ruffian is a top-tier sports movie, but it does the job of telling her important story. Her death resulted in a wake-up call for horse racing. Match races became a thing of the past. It moved forward the discussion about the care of race horses, one that still continues today.

Last year, the Ruffian Equine Medical Center was opened. It is adjacent to Belmont Park, where Ruffian is buried.

Her nose is pointed toward the finish line.

Don't Blame Me

2010-06-14T22:38:00.000-07:00

Besides Zenyatta's amazing victory, I thought Blame's win in the Stephen Foster at Churchill and Rail Trip's win at Hollywood were the performances of the weekend. Rail Trip was pretty much a lock, but Blame was ultra-impressive. I have been on Blame's bandwagon for a while now. In his last race, he was even money or so, but this time, astonishingly, he was 7-2!

All this guy does is win, and he loves Churchill. Most impressive was the fact that Battle Plan got away with fairly easy fractions for almost the entire race, and Blame still nailed him at the wire. If you watch the replay, Churchill announcer Mark Johnson says "Blame, coming under a ride" at the top of the stretch, meaning Blame was asked for his best pretty early, and usually that spells defeat.

But Blame kept coming. And by the time he was approaching the wire, jockey Garrett Gomez had put away the whip, and Blame was under a hand ride. The horse was doing it himself.

Blame is the real deal.

Seeking Perfection

2010-06-14T08:20:00.001-07:00

The six-year-old mare Zenyatta took her shot at horse racing history yesterday. She was attempting to break the American record of 16 wins in a row. A victory would give her 17 wins out of 17 races in her career -- a phenomenal, unrivaled streak.

I could've stayed home and watched the race on TV. It would've been easier than driving an hour each way to Hollywood Park and dealing with the *#$#!! 405 freeway.

I'm so glad I didn't stay home. For those who couldn't see it or be there, I've put together a brief music video of yesterday's experience. I'll tell you a bit about it as well.

Before the race, the paddock was packed with people hoping to get a glimpse of the Queen. In person, Zenyatta is just stunning. She's 17 hands tall, which in horse parlance, is HUGE. But what makes Zenyatta so special is her personality. When she hears people cheering and clapping, she does a little prancy dance in the walking ring and when jockey Mike Smith gets on board, she literally struts.

She also poses for pictures. She'll walk toward the crowd, stop and lift her head, hold it for a second and then turn the other cheek, like a model. It's incredible. You can see her doing it at the end of the video above.

Zenyatta's other trait is that she always, always, always comes from waaay behind to win. This makes her streak even more amazing. Horses with that kind of running style finish 2nd or 3rd a lot, if they even do that well. They're at the mercy of the pace and are often forced to run wide and much farther than the competition.

This 17th victory would not come easy either. Zenyatta was facing a very sharp St. Trinians, a mare that had won four of her last five races, losing only to the boys at the top level of racing. Zenyatta would have to be on her A+ game.

As usual, she broke last and loped along at the back of the field for the first half of the race. She was 14 lengths behind at one point, but gradually started making progress. Still, at the final turn, she had quite a bit of work to do and was forced a good 8-10 lengths from the rail. That's a lot of ground to make up.

I was on the verge of tears as Zenyatta swept into the stretch. I so badly wanted to see her triumph. I could feel it in my bones. I was as close to the track as you could get -- right next to the finish line. At Hollywood Park, the stands slope down to the racing surface, so I was essentially at eye level with the horses' hooves.

The hooves were coming. Even with thousands of people screaming, I could still hear the hooves. One horse burst into my vision. It was St. Trinians, leading the pack. Zenyatta appeared next. She was chasing the leader, closing with every stride. She was desperately trying to run down her foe as she had every single race in her career. But the finish line was fast approaching, and St. Trinians was not backing down. It looked nearly impossible that Zenyatta would get there first this time. She dug down and cut into the lead again.

St. Trinians fought back. Zenyatta wasn't closing fast enough. In less than 5 seconds, the race would be over. Zenyatta came again, and inched closer. She would need something more now. There was time for only one more lunge before the wire. And in a breathless moment, everything slowed down. It was just the two horses, gutting it out, with nothing left but their will to win. Zenyatta was pouring her heart out. But I didn't... think... she... would... get... there.

Here's the wire... YESSSS!! Zenyatta by a head!

The stands exploded with hugs, high-fives and cries of joy. Zenyatta's people embraced and wiped away tears. She had done it. Zenyatta had come from 14 lengths behind to do what she was born to do. To do what she loves to do. To do what she always does.

Win.

It was the most emotion I'd ever felt watching a horse race. I was witnessing a true champion -- a horse that comes along once in a lifetime; a horse that never gives up and accepts nothing short of victory. I will never forget it.

I'm so far from perfect, I can't even imagine what it must be like. No human being can.

But among horses, the saying "nobody's perfect" is most decidedly still up for debate.

All Hail the Queen

2010-06-10T15:23:00.000-07:00

Sunday will be a special day in the world of horse racing. A mare named Zenyatta will try to break the American record for consecutive wins as she goes for her 17th straight victory. This is an extraordinary feat. It's tough for most horses to win two or three in a row. 17 is incredible. Not only that, but Zenyatta has never lost! She's a perfect 16 for 16 in her career.

Zenyatta is owned by famous music producer Jerry Moss. Her name comes from the third album by The Police, Zenyatta Mondatta.

In the photo above, she's the black beauty wearing number 3. I took that picture at Hollywood Park a couple years back when Zenyatta had only won a few in a row. Look, I admit it. I have a crush on her. She's gorgeous!

As part of our recent wedding festivities, my wife and I rented a patio for the guests at Santa Anita race track and watched the races. It just so happened that on day, Zenyatta was going for her 16th win in a row at another track. Zenyatta is so beloved in Southern California that the live racing at Santa Anita was postponed so everyone could watch Zenyatta on the big screen.

As the race started, our guests were asking me, which one is Zenyatta? I pointed to the horse lagging waaaaay behind the other horses. They said, how in the world is she going to win from way back there? I just laughed and told them to watch. Part of the thrill of seeing Zenyatta run is that she's almost always in last place for most of the race. I'm pretty sure she enjoys toying with the competition.

Then, in a flash, she makes her move and blows past the field like they're standing still. I get goose bumps every time. Her most incredible performance occurred in last year's Breeder's Cup Classic -- essentially the Super Bowl of racing. She was the only female in the race, and girls don't often beat the boys in racing. At the top of the stretch, it looked like she was done. Somehow, she weaved through the field and exploded to the finish line in front. It was stunning.

It's also fun to watch her before the race, the way she prances in the paddock. She knows how good she is.

If you don't believe me, check out Sunday's race. You can either watch it on the TVG horse racing network (look it up on your cable or satellite channels) or you can watch online at NTRA.com. Post time is about 4:30 pm PT/7:30 pm ET.

I hope you can share in the moment. Go Zenyatta!