The debate over whether Zenyatta is the greatest horse ever will, frankly, never be settled. If she wins the Breeders' Cup Classic, it's hard to argue against her, but people will. She can't race against the greats of the past.
Or can she?
The NTRA has produced a race simulation pitting Zenyatta against some of the great horses in racing history - Citation, Affirmed, Rachel Alexandra and others.
You can watch the virtual race below. Secretariat is notably absent. I assume he was a late scratch OR the result was specifically designed as a Zenyatta promotion. Decide for yourself. I'm as big a Z fan as there is, and she has won every race when certain other greats lost races (sometimes more than one), but this may border on suspicious.
No matter. It's just kind of fun to watch:
Saturday, October 30, 2010
So You Think you know racing
Well, the probable favorite for the Melbourne Cup just won a race today, and he's running in Australia's biggest race on Tuesday.
So You Think won a top level stakes, the Group 1 Mackinnon on Saturday at 2,000 meters (1.2 miles), and he'll run in the $6 million Melbourne Cup at 3,200 meters on Tuesday.
So You Think has won 8 of 11 career starts, so he's clearly a superhorse. But he gives new meaning to superhorse if he pulls off a win after only two days rest against a field of 18 other top horses.
I suppose it's a cultural thing. It used to be in this country that horses ran a lot more often. Not that long ago, people wouldn't bat an eye at a horse running back in a week. Today in the US, at least at the highest levels of competition, a minimum of three weeks is usually required and sometimes quite a bit more.
So when I read that So You Think raced today, I was like, WHAT? I thought it was a mistake, a misprint, an April Fools joke, since it's Spring in Australia.
But no, it's just a finely-tuned beast on top of his game, and connections that have no fear.
I love it.
Of course, the welfare of the horse is always the top priority, but owners and trainers in this country are far too conservative about what their athletes can do. Exhibit A: The controversy over Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta. Rachel retires after a fantastic work. Zenyatta's connections are accused of "dodging" certain competition.
I have nothing but the utmost respect for Zenyatta and her handlers. She has stayed sound and healthy and has won every race in her career. What more is there?
But there's a different kind of respect for teams that aggressively place their horses and trust their athletic ability. Yes, Thoroughbreds are fragile, but they have also proven to be amazingly resilient. If you have horse, let him (or her) run.
And if you have a horse that likes win, by all means put them on the track every chance you get.
So I Think.
Sunday, October 10, 2010
When you know, you know
There are so few times in horse racing that you genuinely know what's about to happen, that it is absolutely essential that you take advantage when you do know.
Case in point -- Sunday's 6th race at Keeneland. I was privy to a conversation on the backside at Churchill Downs that involved one of the horses in that race. I was told that Dancinginherdreams, trained by John Ward, was an extremely fast two-year-old filly making her first-ever start. The sense I got from the conversation was that this filly was ready to win first out and then some.
Well, she did -- in spectacular fashion. Dancinginherdreams checked badly on the backstretch, closed from last in a field of 12, circled widest of all for the entire race and still won easily by open lengths, under a hand ride by Julien Leparoux. I dare you to find a better maiden victory first-time-out than that.
Yeah, I made a few sheckles on the deal, but since I'm not one to bet first-time starters very often, I didn't clean up like I should have.
Part of the problem was that, obviously, the word got out within the racing circle, that this filly was something special. She was bet down from 10-1 morning line to 3-2 at post time.
But I've seen plenty of high morning lines get bet down to low odds and finish up the track.
The difference, in this case, was that I knew she was something special. It's not like I was watching TVG and heard someone make a random comment. I had actual first-hand knowledge about this filly.
I guess since I've chosen to immerse myself in racing as a new career, I should start taking this information a bit more seriously. Had I considered this situation a stone-cold lock, I would've done a lot better.
Of course, nothing is a stone-cold lock in this sport, but if you can get close to it, opportunity goes begging if you don't pounce.
There was another case last week of a colt I had seen work out at Churchill, and I knew because of the race he was entering, he should win easily. Again, because of my background as a racing fan but not an "insider," I went light in my betting. He won by eight lengths with the greatest of ease at 5-2, a ridiculous price in hindsight.
While it may seem frustrating, it's also encouraging that I'm two-for-two with something resembling inside information.
I suppose the point is that if you genuinely know something, you know it. You don't even have to have inside info. You just have to have a logical explanation, based on valid evidence. Even before I arrived here, there were plenty of cases where I had no inside information but had picked up on something legitimate and it proved to be correct, after putting in the work to figure it out. An example is the turf course bias at Gulfstream over the winter, which I'll be happy to explain if you're interested.
Conversely, if you think you know something but in your mind, you actually know you're just guessing, the gods will sort you out and punish you with a vengeance. I have met the devil at the crossroads many times by hoping shortcuts will work.
They never do.
Figuring out the difference is the key to being successful in this game.
As for Dancinginherdreams, she should absolutely run in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies if at all possible. Her maiden win was so impressive, I won't be the least surprised if she wins the thing.
But now, everyone else knows exactly what I know.
Case in point -- Sunday's 6th race at Keeneland. I was privy to a conversation on the backside at Churchill Downs that involved one of the horses in that race. I was told that Dancinginherdreams, trained by John Ward, was an extremely fast two-year-old filly making her first-ever start. The sense I got from the conversation was that this filly was ready to win first out and then some.
Well, she did -- in spectacular fashion. Dancinginherdreams checked badly on the backstretch, closed from last in a field of 12, circled widest of all for the entire race and still won easily by open lengths, under a hand ride by Julien Leparoux. I dare you to find a better maiden victory first-time-out than that.
Yeah, I made a few sheckles on the deal, but since I'm not one to bet first-time starters very often, I didn't clean up like I should have.
Part of the problem was that, obviously, the word got out within the racing circle, that this filly was something special. She was bet down from 10-1 morning line to 3-2 at post time.
But I've seen plenty of high morning lines get bet down to low odds and finish up the track.
The difference, in this case, was that I knew she was something special. It's not like I was watching TVG and heard someone make a random comment. I had actual first-hand knowledge about this filly.
I guess since I've chosen to immerse myself in racing as a new career, I should start taking this information a bit more seriously. Had I considered this situation a stone-cold lock, I would've done a lot better.
Of course, nothing is a stone-cold lock in this sport, but if you can get close to it, opportunity goes begging if you don't pounce.
There was another case last week of a colt I had seen work out at Churchill, and I knew because of the race he was entering, he should win easily. Again, because of my background as a racing fan but not an "insider," I went light in my betting. He won by eight lengths with the greatest of ease at 5-2, a ridiculous price in hindsight.
While it may seem frustrating, it's also encouraging that I'm two-for-two with something resembling inside information.
I suppose the point is that if you genuinely know something, you know it. You don't even have to have inside info. You just have to have a logical explanation, based on valid evidence. Even before I arrived here, there were plenty of cases where I had no inside information but had picked up on something legitimate and it proved to be correct, after putting in the work to figure it out. An example is the turf course bias at Gulfstream over the winter, which I'll be happy to explain if you're interested.
Conversely, if you think you know something but in your mind, you actually know you're just guessing, the gods will sort you out and punish you with a vengeance. I have met the devil at the crossroads many times by hoping shortcuts will work.
They never do.
Figuring out the difference is the key to being successful in this game.
As for Dancinginherdreams, she should absolutely run in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies if at all possible. Her maiden win was so impressive, I won't be the least surprised if she wins the thing.
But now, everyone else knows exactly what I know.
Saturday, October 9, 2010
A horse lover's dream day
What could be better than opening day at Keeneland, with a dash of World Equestrian Games and a sprinkling of morning workouts with the Kentucky Derby winning jockey?
Such was my Friday:
6:00 a.m. Pick up my buddy from the Equine Business program at the University of Louisville.
6:15 a.m. Arrive on the backside at Churchill Downs and visit with the trainer my friend is working for.
6:25 a.m. Shake hands with jockey Calvin Borel, winner of the last two Kentucky Derbies. He's working one of the trainer's horses. Conversation:
"Hi, Calvin, nice to meet you.
"Good to meet you, Scott. Whew, whee, we almost didn't make it! There was a plane landed on the freeway!
"Oh yeah, I heard about that."
"Yeah, we were driving in and I look over and there's a plane! Man, I said, there's a plane on the freeway! Can you believe that? A plane on the freeway! I was like, whaaaat?
"Oh yeah?"
"Yeah, whew-whee, boy, I wasn't sure we were going to make it on time! Geeeee!"
The point being, Calvin is exactly the person you see on television. It was 6:30 in the morning, and he was jacked up 100% Cajun. What a character.
6:35 a.m. 5 furlong workout complete - very nice three-year-old, going easy, wrapped up by Calvin, lots in the tank.
7:15 a.m. Breakfast at a hard-core diner. Friendliest waitress in the world.
8:15 a.m. Pick up Daily Racing Form for Keeneland at the pharmacy across from Churchill Downs. Head to Lexington.
10:00 a.m. Arrive at Kentucky Horse Park for the World Equestrian Games.
10:30 a.m. Watch acrobats perform "vaulting" on the back of a draft horse. See photo above.
10:45 a.m. Sit in the stands for a game of "Horse-Ball," which is best described as basketball on horseback. In fact, it is exactly like basketball on horseback. I saw a female rider "box out" a male rider with elbows and then swish one in the basket!
These riders have incredible balance and agility. See what happens when the "Sputnik"-looking ball almost hits the ground:
11:00 a.m. Watch Standardbreds, Hackneys and Irish Connemara ponies perform. All of these horses are gorgeous in their own way.
There are few things more beautiful than a horse in full flight:
11:30 a.m. Catch shuttle to our parking space 2 miles from the Games (which cost $20). Ouch.
12:30 p.m. Arrive at Keeneland race course, where the parking is free and the racing always fantastic.
Keeneland is special because the racing facilities are stunning, probably the nicest in the country. The backdrop isn't as breathtaking as Santa Anita's mountains (here, it's just horse pastures for miles), but I daresay the paddock is the most gorgeous you'll find just about anywhere:
That's Michelle Yu from TVG there on the right of the bottom photo. We also chatted with long-time TV handicapper Hank Goldberg for a bit.
4:15 p.m. Paracaidas wins a one-mile turf allowance with ease, Garrett Gomez on board:
5:20 p.m. Wickedly Perfect takes the Grade 1, Alcibiades Stakes for two-year-old fillies in impressive fashion, completing a nice double for my buddy. He was all over Wise Dan upsetting Hollywood Hit in the previous race. I thought Hollywood Hit was a cinch. I made up for it by hitting a $55 exacta earlier in the card.
No matter. I could've lost all day, and it still would've ranked as one of my favorite days of all time.
8 p.m. Arrive back home in Louisville, delightfully exhausted.
Such was my Friday:
6:00 a.m. Pick up my buddy from the Equine Business program at the University of Louisville.
6:15 a.m. Arrive on the backside at Churchill Downs and visit with the trainer my friend is working for.
6:25 a.m. Shake hands with jockey Calvin Borel, winner of the last two Kentucky Derbies. He's working one of the trainer's horses. Conversation:
"Hi, Calvin, nice to meet you.
"Good to meet you, Scott. Whew, whee, we almost didn't make it! There was a plane landed on the freeway!
"Oh yeah, I heard about that."
"Yeah, we were driving in and I look over and there's a plane! Man, I said, there's a plane on the freeway! Can you believe that? A plane on the freeway! I was like, whaaaat?
"Oh yeah?"
"Yeah, whew-whee, boy, I wasn't sure we were going to make it on time! Geeeee!"
The point being, Calvin is exactly the person you see on television. It was 6:30 in the morning, and he was jacked up 100% Cajun. What a character.
6:35 a.m. 5 furlong workout complete - very nice three-year-old, going easy, wrapped up by Calvin, lots in the tank.
7:15 a.m. Breakfast at a hard-core diner. Friendliest waitress in the world.
8:15 a.m. Pick up Daily Racing Form for Keeneland at the pharmacy across from Churchill Downs. Head to Lexington.
10:00 a.m. Arrive at Kentucky Horse Park for the World Equestrian Games.
10:45 a.m. Sit in the stands for a game of "Horse-Ball," which is best described as basketball on horseback. In fact, it is exactly like basketball on horseback. I saw a female rider "box out" a male rider with elbows and then swish one in the basket!
These riders have incredible balance and agility. See what happens when the "Sputnik"-looking ball almost hits the ground:
11:00 a.m. Watch Standardbreds, Hackneys and Irish Connemara ponies perform. All of these horses are gorgeous in their own way.
There are few things more beautiful than a horse in full flight:
11:30 a.m. Catch shuttle to our parking space 2 miles from the Games (which cost $20). Ouch.
12:30 p.m. Arrive at Keeneland race course, where the parking is free and the racing always fantastic.
Keeneland is special because the racing facilities are stunning, probably the nicest in the country. The backdrop isn't as breathtaking as Santa Anita's mountains (here, it's just horse pastures for miles), but I daresay the paddock is the most gorgeous you'll find just about anywhere:
That's Michelle Yu from TVG there on the right of the bottom photo. We also chatted with long-time TV handicapper Hank Goldberg for a bit.
4:15 p.m. Paracaidas wins a one-mile turf allowance with ease, Garrett Gomez on board:
5:20 p.m. Wickedly Perfect takes the Grade 1, Alcibiades Stakes for two-year-old fillies in impressive fashion, completing a nice double for my buddy. He was all over Wise Dan upsetting Hollywood Hit in the previous race. I thought Hollywood Hit was a cinch. I made up for it by hitting a $55 exacta earlier in the card.
No matter. I could've lost all day, and it still would've ranked as one of my favorite days of all time.
8 p.m. Arrive back home in Louisville, delightfully exhausted.
Sunday, October 3, 2010
More of this please...
The stars are aligning for this year's Breeders' Cup - hopefully the people running the show realize the golden opportunity in front of them, between the movie, Secretariat, and the real-life racing star who is doing a mighty good impression of Big Red.
From the video below, it appears that perhaps they do. The promo popped up on YouTube last night after Zenyatta's thrilling victory in the Lady's Secret stakes, her 19th win in a row. The final race of her career will be one of the biggest races in the world, the Breeders' Cup Classic November 6th at Churchill Downs, where she will try to end her career a perfect 20 for 20.
Astonishing.
If you missed the Lady's Secret, that's posted below as well. When I bet on a race, I always get a little adrenaline rush as the horses approach the wire, maybe a few fast beats of the heart, if my horse is involved.
I didn't have a dime on Zenyatta's race, and my heart was pounding out of my chest right before she hit the line in her usual oh-my-god-I-don't-think-she's-going-make-it-this-time!!! fashion.
She's in a class all by herself as a champion racehorse.
I love her. I will miss her. I have run out of words to describe her. Let's just roll the videos:
From the video below, it appears that perhaps they do. The promo popped up on YouTube last night after Zenyatta's thrilling victory in the Lady's Secret stakes, her 19th win in a row. The final race of her career will be one of the biggest races in the world, the Breeders' Cup Classic November 6th at Churchill Downs, where she will try to end her career a perfect 20 for 20.
Astonishing.
If you missed the Lady's Secret, that's posted below as well. When I bet on a race, I always get a little adrenaline rush as the horses approach the wire, maybe a few fast beats of the heart, if my horse is involved.
I didn't have a dime on Zenyatta's race, and my heart was pounding out of my chest right before she hit the line in her usual oh-my-god-I-don't-think-she's-going-make-it-this-time!!! fashion.
She's in a class all by herself as a champion racehorse.
I love her. I will miss her. I have run out of words to describe her. Let's just roll the videos:
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