The Lecomte: Small Field, Even Smaller Derby Hopes?

Happy New Year to everyone!  I officially kick off 2011 with my first post of the year - the Handicappers' Corner, a thorough examination of the Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds this Saturday.

Fair Grounds kicks off its series of Kentucky Derby prep races Saturday with the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes.  If history is any indication, the winner of this year’s Lecomte is unlikely to be draped in roses come the first Saturday in May.  Since 1970, no Lecomte winner has gone on to win the Derby.  Only two Lecomte victors have even hit the board on Derby day - the most recent being Hard Spun, who finished a game second to Street Sense in 2007.  Before that, you have to go all the way back to 1972, when Lecomte winner No Le Hace finished behind Derby champion Riva Ridge.  In 2009, Friesan Fire won the Lecomte and went off as the Derby favorite but finished somewhere in the parking lot of Churchill Downs.

Still, when it comes to the Kentucky Derby, history reminds us you can often throw it right out the window.  Very few people thought the winner of the Sunland Derby had a remote chance to beat Friesan Fire or Pioneer of the Nile in 2009, but Mine That Bird’s upset will long be remembered.  The magic of the Derby trail is that you never know where the eventual winner might show the slightest hint that this is their year.  Maybe one of the five starters in the Lecomte Stakes will prove something special.

Unfortunately, the last sentence also contains a fact.  A whopping five horse-field is on tap for Saturday’s feature race at Fair Grounds.  Handicappers everywhere must be licking their chops.  Seriously, though, what to do when faced with a five-horse field? 

I can tell you one thing you do not do is what I did with the 2008 Swaps Stakes at Hollywood Park.  A field of four went to post in the Swaps that year, and in my Pick Four, I played three of them.  As the only horse I did not play crossed the finish line first, I realized it was possible that I was indeed born yesterday.  No one in the history of horseplaying could be that dumb.  For the record, that horse was Tres Borrachos, who went off as the longest shot in the field at 11-1, triggering a $2,600 payout for a Pick Four in which I had the other three fairly chalky legs correct.  Moral of the story:  Never, ever leave one horse in a small field off your ticket.  You are begging the racing gods to smite you.  In fact, never leave one horse off a ticket in any circumstances.  Either intensify your handicapping and eliminate more horses or push the ALL button.  That horse knows you left him out, and he will do everything in his power to make you cry like a child who’s been shoved off his bicycle. 

With small fields, I usually either skip the race or play the multi-race wagers, hoping I can get by with a single in that race and spread in the bigger fields.  It makes little sense to play two or three horses in a field of five when it doesn’t cost much more to cover the whole thing in case a horse pulls a Tres Borrachos on you.  Occasionally, I mess around with the exacta pools because sometimes in small fields, there will be combinations paying much more than they should.  Keep an eye out for those.

But let’s get to this year’s Lecomte, to be run at a mile and 40 yards on the main track. 

Justin Phillip was made the 7-5 morning line favorite after his optional claiming win in the slop at Fair Grounds on New Year’s Day.  When I first saw trainer Steve Asmussen was adding blinkers to a horse that just went gate to wire and won by 3 ¼ lengths, I was perplexed.  Far be it from me to question a trainer who is 23% in the past year with Blinkers On, but I needed an explanation.  Then I watched the race.  When Shaun Bridgmohan asked Justin Phillip to switch leads in the stretch, it looked like he asked the horse to go get him a beer from the concession stand.  The horse literally went sideways about six paths to the grandstand side.  There isn’t a shade of green that describes that move.  So, Blinkers On, it is.

Owner Ahmed Zayat says Justin Phillip worked well with the blinkers January 17.  Still stinging from the injury last year to his potential superhorse, Eskendereya, Zayat says Asmussen is high on Justin Phillip as a Derby hopeful.  So far, the colt has shown quite a bit of versatility, doing well on the lead and from off the pace in five races at four different racetracks, in both fast and sloppy conditions.

The second morning line choice (9-5) is Pants On Fire, who seems to enjoy running as his name suggests.  His last two races at Aqueduct have been pretty impressive.  In the Count Fleet Stakes, he wore down late after getting pressured on the lead throughout.  The race before that, also at a mile, he was game in a narrow defeat.  He made the race on the front end and got nipped late.  The Kelly Breen shipper is likely to be the pacesetter once again in the Lecomte, with Joe Bravo on board.  Bravo was up for the Jump Start colt’s last win, a seven-length MSW romp at Delaware last October.

Wilkinson (7-2 ML) gets a rider switch from the injured Robby Albarado to Garrett Gomez.  Nice pinch hitter.  Wilkinson, a Lemon Drop Kid progeny, finished third to Justin Phillip in the New Year’s Day race.  With one maiden win to his credit from four starts, he’ll have to step it up here.  But if the top two choices decide to fight it out up front, Wilkinson might be the beneficiary.  His trainer, Howard Neill, is a scorching 30% at the Fair Grounds meet so far.

Action Ready (9-2 ML) is coming off a win on the Fair Grounds turf January 9 - his second win in four tries.  On paper, the last race doesn’t look so hot.  Action Ready set painfully slow fractions (:26.1 and 51.4 for a mile), but when you consider the turf was yielding, there was a strong headwind in the stretch, and he fought off a late-running foe, his gate-to-wire victory deserves bonus points.  The son of More Than Ready will probably be a bigger threat on turf than dirt, but with Bret Calhoun training and Anna Napravnik riding, I won’t count him out.

Mobeetie completes the field at 20-1.  This horse could be anything.  He won his first and only race January 1 in a maiden claimer over a sloppy Fair Grounds track at six furlongs.  Trained by Eric Heitzmann, the son of Sky Mesa was purchased for $4,000 at the 2009 Keeneland September sale.  Justin Phillip, sired by First Samurai out of a Cryptoclearance mare, went for 100 times that price at the same sale.  The Derby trail is littered with high-priced talent being scorched by bargain basement nobodies, which is why it’s so much fun.

However, it’s difficult to envision a big upset here.  Despite being a devout member of the anti-chalk coalition, on pedigree, connections, versatility and past performance, Justin Phillip looks tough in here.  I expect Bridgmohan will put out Pants On Fire and maybe Action Ready somewhere in the stretch and push-button his way to the victory.  Wilkinson will be closing.  If Justin Phillip doesn’t wind up sitting in row E of the Fair Grounds stands, he’ll probably end up in the winner’s circle.

Selections:
1. Justin Phillip
2. Wilkinson
3. Pants On Fire