There are so few times in horse racing that you genuinely know what's about to happen, that it is absolutely essential that you take advantage when you do know.
Case in point -- Sunday's 6th race at Keeneland. I was privy to a conversation on the backside at Churchill Downs that involved one of the horses in that race. I was told that Dancinginherdreams, trained by John Ward, was an extremely fast two-year-old filly making her first-ever start. The sense I got from the conversation was that this filly was ready to win first out and then some.
Well, she did -- in spectacular fashion. Dancinginherdreams checked badly on the backstretch, closed from last in a field of 12, circled widest of all for the entire race and still won easily by open lengths, under a hand ride by Julien Leparoux. I dare you to find a better maiden victory first-time-out than that.
Yeah, I made a few sheckles on the deal, but since I'm not one to bet first-time starters very often, I didn't clean up like I should have.
Part of the problem was that, obviously, the word got out within the racing circle, that this filly was something special. She was bet down from 10-1 morning line to 3-2 at post time.
But I've seen plenty of high morning lines get bet down to low odds and finish up the track.
The difference, in this case, was that I knew she was something special. It's not like I was watching TVG and heard someone make a random comment. I had actual first-hand knowledge about this filly.
I guess since I've chosen to immerse myself in racing as a new career, I should start taking this information a bit more seriously. Had I considered this situation a stone-cold lock, I would've done a lot better.
Of course, nothing is a stone-cold lock in this sport, but if you can get close to it, opportunity goes begging if you don't pounce.
There was another case last week of a colt I had seen work out at Churchill, and I knew because of the race he was entering, he should win easily. Again, because of my background as a racing fan but not an "insider," I went light in my betting. He won by eight lengths with the greatest of ease at 5-2, a ridiculous price in hindsight.
While it may seem frustrating, it's also encouraging that I'm two-for-two with something resembling inside information.
I suppose the point is that if you genuinely know something, you know it. You don't even have to have inside info. You just have to have a logical explanation, based on valid evidence. Even before I arrived here, there were plenty of cases where I had no inside information but had picked up on something legitimate and it proved to be correct, after putting in the work to figure it out. An example is the turf course bias at Gulfstream over the winter, which I'll be happy to explain if you're interested.
Conversely, if you think you know something but in your mind, you actually know you're just guessing, the gods will sort you out and punish you with a vengeance. I have met the devil at the crossroads many times by hoping shortcuts will work.
They never do.
Figuring out the difference is the key to being successful in this game.
As for Dancinginherdreams, she should absolutely run in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies if at all possible. Her maiden win was so impressive, I won't be the least surprised if she wins the thing.
But now, everyone else knows exactly what I know.
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