Racing terms and traditions

Ever wonder why a furlong is an eighth of a mile or why favorites are called "chalk"?  Or where the idea of win, place and show came from?

In addition to learning practical business concepts in the University of Louisville's Equine Business program, I've also picked up some great trivia tidbits about the origins of racing terms and traditions.  I thought I'd share a few of them here, in case you might not know some of them.

Furlong - How did it come to be that a furlong equals an eighth of a mile?  It dates back to at least the ninth century when farmers would measure how far oxen could pull a plough before giving out and needing rest.  It turns out, it was about an eighth of a mile, and this was referred to as a "furrow long," which was later shortened to furlong.

Chalk - In a time when bookies ruled the racetrack, they would write their odds on a chalkboard.  After a few people bet on a certain horse at 5-1, let's say, the bookmaker would wipe off the chalk and write in lower odds - maybe 2-1.  They constantly updated the "chalk", and the term is still widely used today to denote the favorites in a race.

The Sport of Kings:  People usually attribute this to the idea that racing was traditionally a sport for wealthy people, and that's partially true.  But the phrase actually derives from the post-Restoration era in England in the late 1600's when a series of kings who loved horse racing took the throne.  Prior to the Restoration, racing was banned.  Afterward, it literally became the Sport of Kings.

Win/Place/Show:  We have the Sheriff of Nottingham (of Robin Hood fame) to thank for this one.  Since the kings and nobles of that era loved racing, the Sheriff wanted to offer them fabulous prizes for winning races.  He issued an order to create a plate for the winner.  When the plate was brought to him, he said, "No, that's too small.  Make a bigger one."  So, a bigger plate was brought to him, and the Sheriff still wasn't satisfied.  Finally, he received a plate that was big enough in his eyes, and he decided to award that to the winner.  Not wanting to waste plates, he chose to give the smaller ones to the second and third place finishers, who were probably also nobles, and the Sheriff didn't want them to go home empty handed!

Derby: The Kentucky Derby, The Irish Derby, The Epsom Derby.  The name comes from Lord Derby, who in the late 1700's, flipped a coin with Sir Charles Bunbury, to determine whose name would be attached to a new race for three-year-old colts.  Lord Derby won the toss, thankfully, and to this day, races for three-year-old colts are called Derbies.  Otherwise, we might be getting ready for the Kentucky Bunbury every spring.

The Blood-Horse:  I always wondered why they would name a magazine, Blood-Horse.  Following the English Restoration, the kings were looking for faster horses to compete in their races.  They heard about a breed of horses in the Arabian desert.  They brought some of these horses to England to breed with their mares, and thus started the Thoroughbred, which at the time was also called a "hot-blood" or a "blooded horse."

Sweepstakes: Stakes races began with horse owners quite literally putting bags of money  - their "stakes" - on a table.  When the race was over, the winner would sweep all of the bags of money into his own. I'm guessing they optimistically brought along an extra, bigger bag for such a purpose.

Why gambling:  Why is gambling such as essential part of racing?  It boils down to the idea of "rooting interest."  As baseball grew as a sport, it was easy to find a rooting interest.  You were a fan of your hometown team.  Towns all over the Midwest had teams.  But for racing to compete, it needed to create an emotional stake in the sport like those fans of baseball naturally had.  While gambling on racing obviously predates baseball (the pari-mutuel betting system was developed in France), it became essential for American racing because when people went to the track, they didn't know the horses.  They needed a reason to pull for them, and that reason became their own money.

Why Kentucky:  How did Kentucky become the center of the breeding world?  A lot of people attribute it to the limestone in the water and its supposed positive effects on horse bones.  But a more likely reason is that during the Civil War, the armies sought out horses for battle by going door-to-door in horse states like Maryland and Virginia.  They used the power of eminent domain to confiscate every good horse they found, and many of them were Thoroughbreds.  Some of the breeders decided to take their horses over the mountains to the safety of Central Kentucky, where a few good horse farms had cropped up.  When the war was over, Kentucky had virtually the only good Thoroughbreds left.

The Kentucky Derby: For its first few decades, the Kentucky Derby received no national attention.  It was only in the early 1900's, when Louisville businessman Matt Winn, president of Churchill Downs, decided to market the race on a larger scale that it took off.  Winn would call up prominent Thoroughbred owners in other states and offer to pay all of their expenses for bringing their horse and their families to Louisville the first Saturday in May.  He would ask the owner, can your horse beat that horse in Chicago?  Oh yeah, they'd say, no doubt.  Then, Winn would call that horse's owner and say, hey, there's a guy in New York who says he can beat your horse.  Wanna come down and take him on?  And so it all began.

Hanging out with Curlin and Colonel John

One of the wonderful things about living in Kentucky is that some of the finest horses on the planet are just a short drive away.

Yesterday, I had the opportunity to get up close and personal with some of the top sires in the world.  The visit to three Lexington-area stallion farms was organized by the University of Louisville Equine Business program, in which I am enrolled.

Our first stop was Lane's End, home to Horse of the Year Zenyatta, who is relaxing on the farm in preparation for her breeding career.  Unfortunately, since we only visited the stallion area, I didn't get to see Z.  But my disappointment quickly evaporated when I walked into the stallion barn.  Wow.  There's AP Indy.  Oh, look, it's Quality Road.  Mineshaft.  Lemon Drop Kid.  Smart Strike.  Rock Hard Ten.  City Zip.  Curlin.  Candy Ride.  I could go on.

It's stunning to see all of these great sires (and potentially great sires) in one place.  Check out the forelock on Quality Road.  I think it's longer than his tail!



The first stallion they brought out was the great AP Indy, whose stud fee is $150,000.  He was gracious enough to let me pet him for free.



Next up was Curlin, North America's leading money-earner and winner of the Preakness, the Dubai World Cup and the Breeders' Cup Classic.  Curlin, it seems, is anxious to get it on with Rachel Alexandra, his future mate (and also winner of the Preakness).  I got the feeling Curlin thought he was headed to the breeding shed at this moment and was a little perturbed that instead, he had to stand around being ogled by a bunch of humans.  He kept biting his handler as if to say, "Hey, I'm supposed to making sweet love right now.  Equine Business students?  Are you serious?"



Lane's End is truly close to heaven, and in fact, when horses pass on, they just stay right here on the farm.  The statue in the background of this little graveyard is of Dixieland Band, a fine stallion who died last year at the ripe old age of 29.



Our next stop was WinStar Farm, which is not only a breeding operation but a racing farm as well.  They're using some pretty fancy technology to keep horses conditioned and prevent injuries.  They have something called Equivibe, which is the use of vibration in horse therapy.  I stood in one of the stalls with a vibrating plate, and I can see why horses would love it.  Like a hot shower, I didn't want to get out!

I was also impressed as the farm manager, Tony, described his approach for bringing along young horses.  He said WinStar tries never to force them into doing something they're not ready for, like loading into a starting gate.  He wants them relaxed, not scared.  Tony said if his horses are anxious in the paddock or at the gate, they're wasting precious energy that could be used at the end of a race.  He was less enthusiastic about the polytrack surface installed at WinStar's training track.  He said it changes every time the weather does.



WinStar is home to last year's Kentucky Derby winner, Super Saver, who begins his breeding career this year.  The stallion roster also includes Tiznow, Distorted Humor, Speightstown and Bluegrass Cat, who had a monster year in 2010 as his first runners hit the track.  The best-looking of the bunch, though, was Colonel John, who went to the breeding shed last year.  Can't wait to see his two-year-olds!  Here's a short video of the Colonel being brought out.

Our final destination was Taylor Made, a smaller farm that has a partnership with WinStar.  Taylor Made stands five stallions: Old Fashioned, Northern Afleet, Forestry, Unbridled's Song (their current rock star) and Eskendereya (their future rock star). Eskendereya would've certainly been last year's Kentucky Derby favorite after his romping wins in the Fountain of Youth and Wood Memorial, but his racing career was cut short by injury.  He certainly looks like he could be a phenomenal sire:



Unbridled's Song has produced a host of Grade 1 winners, including Zensational, Midshipman and Songandaprayer.  And he's gorgeous!  Take a look:

It's pretty incredible to get up close to these famous sires.  As someone once said: A lovely horse is always an experience... It is an emotional experience of the kind that is spoiled by words.

So, I'll stop typing now.

The Lecomte: Small Field, Even Smaller Derby Hopes?

Happy New Year to everyone!  I officially kick off 2011 with my first post of the year - the Handicappers' Corner, a thorough examination of the Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds this Saturday.

Fair Grounds kicks off its series of Kentucky Derby prep races Saturday with the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes.  If history is any indication, the winner of this year’s Lecomte is unlikely to be draped in roses come the first Saturday in May.  Since 1970, no Lecomte winner has gone on to win the Derby.  Only two Lecomte victors have even hit the board on Derby day - the most recent being Hard Spun, who finished a game second to Street Sense in 2007.  Before that, you have to go all the way back to 1972, when Lecomte winner No Le Hace finished behind Derby champion Riva Ridge.  In 2009, Friesan Fire won the Lecomte and went off as the Derby favorite but finished somewhere in the parking lot of Churchill Downs.

Still, when it comes to the Kentucky Derby, history reminds us you can often throw it right out the window.  Very few people thought the winner of the Sunland Derby had a remote chance to beat Friesan Fire or Pioneer of the Nile in 2009, but Mine That Bird’s upset will long be remembered.  The magic of the Derby trail is that you never know where the eventual winner might show the slightest hint that this is their year.  Maybe one of the five starters in the Lecomte Stakes will prove something special.

Unfortunately, the last sentence also contains a fact.  A whopping five horse-field is on tap for Saturday’s feature race at Fair Grounds.  Handicappers everywhere must be licking their chops.  Seriously, though, what to do when faced with a five-horse field? 

I can tell you one thing you do not do is what I did with the 2008 Swaps Stakes at Hollywood Park.  A field of four went to post in the Swaps that year, and in my Pick Four, I played three of them.  As the only horse I did not play crossed the finish line first, I realized it was possible that I was indeed born yesterday.  No one in the history of horseplaying could be that dumb.  For the record, that horse was Tres Borrachos, who went off as the longest shot in the field at 11-1, triggering a $2,600 payout for a Pick Four in which I had the other three fairly chalky legs correct.  Moral of the story:  Never, ever leave one horse in a small field off your ticket.  You are begging the racing gods to smite you.  In fact, never leave one horse off a ticket in any circumstances.  Either intensify your handicapping and eliminate more horses or push the ALL button.  That horse knows you left him out, and he will do everything in his power to make you cry like a child who’s been shoved off his bicycle. 

With small fields, I usually either skip the race or play the multi-race wagers, hoping I can get by with a single in that race and spread in the bigger fields.  It makes little sense to play two or three horses in a field of five when it doesn’t cost much more to cover the whole thing in case a horse pulls a Tres Borrachos on you.  Occasionally, I mess around with the exacta pools because sometimes in small fields, there will be combinations paying much more than they should.  Keep an eye out for those.

But let’s get to this year’s Lecomte, to be run at a mile and 40 yards on the main track. 

Justin Phillip was made the 7-5 morning line favorite after his optional claiming win in the slop at Fair Grounds on New Year’s Day.  When I first saw trainer Steve Asmussen was adding blinkers to a horse that just went gate to wire and won by 3 ¼ lengths, I was perplexed.  Far be it from me to question a trainer who is 23% in the past year with Blinkers On, but I needed an explanation.  Then I watched the race.  When Shaun Bridgmohan asked Justin Phillip to switch leads in the stretch, it looked like he asked the horse to go get him a beer from the concession stand.  The horse literally went sideways about six paths to the grandstand side.  There isn’t a shade of green that describes that move.  So, Blinkers On, it is.

Owner Ahmed Zayat says Justin Phillip worked well with the blinkers January 17.  Still stinging from the injury last year to his potential superhorse, Eskendereya, Zayat says Asmussen is high on Justin Phillip as a Derby hopeful.  So far, the colt has shown quite a bit of versatility, doing well on the lead and from off the pace in five races at four different racetracks, in both fast and sloppy conditions.

The second morning line choice (9-5) is Pants On Fire, who seems to enjoy running as his name suggests.  His last two races at Aqueduct have been pretty impressive.  In the Count Fleet Stakes, he wore down late after getting pressured on the lead throughout.  The race before that, also at a mile, he was game in a narrow defeat.  He made the race on the front end and got nipped late.  The Kelly Breen shipper is likely to be the pacesetter once again in the Lecomte, with Joe Bravo on board.  Bravo was up for the Jump Start colt’s last win, a seven-length MSW romp at Delaware last October.

Wilkinson (7-2 ML) gets a rider switch from the injured Robby Albarado to Garrett Gomez.  Nice pinch hitter.  Wilkinson, a Lemon Drop Kid progeny, finished third to Justin Phillip in the New Year’s Day race.  With one maiden win to his credit from four starts, he’ll have to step it up here.  But if the top two choices decide to fight it out up front, Wilkinson might be the beneficiary.  His trainer, Howard Neill, is a scorching 30% at the Fair Grounds meet so far.

Action Ready (9-2 ML) is coming off a win on the Fair Grounds turf January 9 - his second win in four tries.  On paper, the last race doesn’t look so hot.  Action Ready set painfully slow fractions (:26.1 and 51.4 for a mile), but when you consider the turf was yielding, there was a strong headwind in the stretch, and he fought off a late-running foe, his gate-to-wire victory deserves bonus points.  The son of More Than Ready will probably be a bigger threat on turf than dirt, but with Bret Calhoun training and Anna Napravnik riding, I won’t count him out.

Mobeetie completes the field at 20-1.  This horse could be anything.  He won his first and only race January 1 in a maiden claimer over a sloppy Fair Grounds track at six furlongs.  Trained by Eric Heitzmann, the son of Sky Mesa was purchased for $4,000 at the 2009 Keeneland September sale.  Justin Phillip, sired by First Samurai out of a Cryptoclearance mare, went for 100 times that price at the same sale.  The Derby trail is littered with high-priced talent being scorched by bargain basement nobodies, which is why it’s so much fun.

However, it’s difficult to envision a big upset here.  Despite being a devout member of the anti-chalk coalition, on pedigree, connections, versatility and past performance, Justin Phillip looks tough in here.  I expect Bridgmohan will put out Pants On Fire and maybe Action Ready somewhere in the stretch and push-button his way to the victory.  Wilkinson will be closing.  If Justin Phillip doesn’t wind up sitting in row E of the Fair Grounds stands, he’ll probably end up in the winner’s circle.

Selections:
1. Justin Phillip
2. Wilkinson
3. Pants On Fire

Tales from the track and elsewhere

One of the things I enjoy most about studying equine business is the stories I get to hear on a daily basis. 

As my first semester in the Equine Business program at the University of Louisville comes to a close, I've been recalling some of the stories I've heard in class, and I thought I'd share a few of them.

Make Rain, Not Love

One of my professors, Timothy Capps, has worked all over the equine industry, from Claiborne Farm to Pimlico Race Track to racing media publications.  His memory is filled with legendary stories.

He told us one about Seattle Slew, who after winning the Triple Crown in 1977, went on to a successful stud career at both Spendthrift and Three Chimneys farms. 

I don't know if you'd call it a fetish or what, but Seattle Slew's handlers learned that this great champion only liked to breed mares when it was raining.  You can see how this might be a problem, since a stallion farm can't possibly make money if it has to wait for rain in order to breed.

It just so happened that the breeding shed at the farm had a tin roof.  So, when Seattle Slew was brought into the shed, his handlers would turn on the sprinkler system and point it at the roof.  Voila - to Seattle Slew's ears, it had started raining, and that meant it was time to get down to business.

A lot of stallions have these mating quirks.  The great stud, Nasrullah, would not mate under any circumstances if Arthur B. Hancock, Jr., the operator of Claiborne Farm at the time, was in the shed.  They tried several ways to sneak him in the barn when Nasrullah wasn't looking, but Nasrullah would sense his presence and back off the mare.

Horses are funny creatures, aren't they?

Face the Broom Handle

Capps tells another story about Nasrullah, who was an ornery sort.  None of the grooms at Claiborne Farm could do their jobs because Nasrullah would attack them when they came into his stall.  One of the fed-up grooms went to Mr. Hancock and said, it's either me or the horse.  One of us has to go.

Obviously, Mr. Hancock wasn't about to send Nasrullah packing, so the groom told him, okay, let me try something, but I can't tell you what it is.  You just have to trust me.  Nervously, Mr. Hancock agreed, telling the groom not to injure his stallion.  The groom said he would cause no "permanent damage."

So, when the groom went into the stall the next day, he carried with him a broomstick handle, and when Nasrullah came at him, he whacked him three times on the forehead.  Not gently, mind you.  Nasrullah backed up and let the groom grab the feed bucket.

The next time the groom went in, Nasrullah attacked him again, and he got a whack, whack, whack on the forehead.  Again, Nasrullah backed up.  The third time the groom went in, Nasrullah started coming after him, but all the groom had to do this time was show him the broomstick handle, and that was the end of it.  He never attacked the groom again, and for the remainder of Nasrullah's stud career, that groom was the only one who could successfully go into Nasrullah's stall.

It CAN'T be Mind That Bird

Churchill Downs track announcer Mark Johnson spoke to one of our classes and played us his call of the 2009 Kentucky Derby.  My background as a radio broadcaster led me to notice something interesting about the stretch run of that race.

I told Mark, "I heard you buy yourself some time."  He laughed and told the story of what happened in those two seconds.

During the call, Mark says something about Mine That Bird being "long last" on the backstretch, and he never mentions him again until deep stretch.  As the leaders were hitting their late strides, Johnson says "Towards the inside... picking up now... bursting through... Mine That Bird!"

Mark said he noticed a horse skimming the rail and was trying to figure out who it was.  Mark is a big fan of the cartoon, Tom and Jerry, and he said that moment was just like the Tom and Jerry episodes where the characters would have an angel on one shoulder and a devil on the other, telling them what to do.

The angel was telling Mark, "You know that is Mine That Bird.  You know those are Calvin Borel's silks."  The devil was saying, "Come on, that can't possibly be Mine That Bird!  He was just chasing the ambulance a minute ago!"  This went back and forth in Mark's brain at lightning speed, and his mouth was trying to buy him time to decide.  So he said, "Toward the inside...picking up now... bursting through...", and at last, he decided to go with the angel and shouted "Mine That Bird!"

What makes his call even more impressive is that Tom Durkin, who called the race for NBC, muffed it and didn't pick up Mine That Bird until the wire. 

Apparently, the devil got the best of him.



By the way, Mark invited me up to the announcer's booth for a race call a few weeks ago, and it was scintillating.  He's a tremendous talent, and watching him work was a thrill.

Who is That Ugly Foal?

Another one of our speakers was Shannon White, manager of Fares Farms in Lexington, KY.  Shannon told us the story of a foal that was bred on her farm a few years ago.

As the foal was developing, Shannon formed the opinion that he would never even sniff a racetrack.  He was too awkward-looking with too many conformation flaws.  She said she wouldn't have paid a dime for that foal.  That's his weanling photo on the right.

Well, somebody did buy that foal, and he not only raced, but he broke his maiden with a 101 Beyer Speed figure rating.  He went on to win the Preakness, finish second in the Belmont and win the Breeders' Cup Classic.    

Shannon said it just goes to show you that you can't look at a horse and determine the size of his heart, and she learned a valuable lesson from the experience.

That foal was none other than Curlin, who to this day is prominently displayed on the Fares Farms website.

Legal Matters

In my regulatory law class, we spent the semester pouring over case law involving patrons ejected  from racetracks, trainers violating drug rules, OTB bettors thrown out for screaming, jockeys using "buzzers", a woman slipping on a half-eaten hot dog, a gambler being bitten by a rattlesnake in the parking lot - you name it. 

You couldn't make up the characters in some of these cases, and they illustrate the colorful, always interesting, sometimes disturbing elements in the racing industry.  My professor, Robert Heleringer, has written a book chronicling the entire history of regulatory law cases in racing.  It should be published soon.  His book has essentially been the material for our class.  Highly recommended (and entertaining) reading!

Final Thoughts

This first semester has been incredible.  I went to the Keeneland auction and race meet.  I worked the Breeders' Cup for the Paulick Report and watched the Classic from six floors above the finish line.  I clocked workouts in the mornings at Churchill with workout master, Bruno de Julio.  I met people in every corner of the equine industry from jockeys and trainers to farm managers, equine insurance agents and horse massage therapists.  I made great friends, including fellow student Michael Vesce, whose uncle trained a phenomenal racehorse of the 90's - Formal Gold.

I learned how the tote odds at the track are calculated with takeout included, how a stallion manager determines stud fees, the economics behind auctions, the science of horse reproduction, the origin of the saying "never look a gift horse in the mouth" (you can tell his age by the teeth), and much, much more.

The spring semester should be just as enjoyable.  It will include equine marketing, a course on racing media, commercial law and current issues in the industry among others.  And while this semester culminated with the Breeders' Cup at Churchill, my final semester will end the week of the Kentucky Derby.

What more could a horse nut ask for?

Zenyatta's heart and my head

One of the cardinal rules of handicapping horses is that you should never bet with your heart - well, I bet with my head in the Breeders' Cup Classic, so how did I do?




I wrote earlier this year that Blame and Zenyatta were the best horses in training in the US, bar none.  And clearly, that opinion proved correct Saturday night.  So, I must have made a ton of money on the Classic.

Nope.  I didn't make a cent.  I suppose that requires explanation.

I've been a Blame fan for the past year.  At 5-1, I picked him to win the Clark Handicap Thanksgiving weekend at Churchill last November, and I've been on him every single race since, even as his price dropped to even money most times.  I knew he was a phenomenal horse right from the beginning, something I've never been able to say, being a relative newcomer to the sport.  Conversely, I bet against Zenyatta time and time again early in her career because I was determined to bet with my head, not my heart.

But Zenyatta eventually won me over with her heart and in my head.  And after assessing the Breeders' Cup with purely a handicapper's eye, despite all the naysayers, and as good as I knew Blame to be, I believed with every fiber of my soul that Zenyatta was the best horse in the Classic.  I was sure all that negative stuff about her running on synthetics and not facing males was pure bunk.  She was bigger, faster and stronger than the best male horses in this country.

So when it came to Saturday's Classic, as much as I loved Blame, I loved Zenyatta more.  And with that opinion, I played the Pick Four. 

I started off with the obvious single on Goldikova.  I had played against every favorite in the BC up until then, but I loved Goldikova as much as I loved Zenyatta, and Goldi won like the champion she is.  Off to a good, but obvious start.

In leg two, I was elated when 37-1 Dakota Phone won because that assured that the Pick Four would have some value, and he was on my ticket.  If you're going to play a Pick Four with Goldikova, you'd better get value elsewhere.  In leg three, again, a nice price on my ticket - 8-1 Dangerous Midge - who was originally my pick, but for some reason, I got off of him in my "official" selections.  At least I included him in the Pick Four.

Then, it came down to the Classic.  When I made out my Pick Four ticket, I was flush with cash after doing very well on Friday, so I could've easily made the Classic a two-horse race, as I had been saying all along. 

But I didn't.  I singled Zenyatta.

In hindsight, it seems foolish.  If I believed Blame and Zenyatta were the only two horses that could win the Classic, why would I single Zenyatta?  I've been asking myself that question for the past two days.

I guess it's because I wanted to be all in on the great mare.  I had some sort of instinct to live or die with her.  Even after singling her in the Pick Four, I had the opportunity to bet a nice exacta with Blame over Zenyatta right before the race, and I just couldn't do it.  It was strange.  My mind and my body could not pull the trigger, even though in many, many other circumstances, I have easily done such a thing to "hedge" financially.

I just felt a strong pull that I could not resist to put all my chips on Zenyatta.

It cost me a lot of money.  The exacta was reasonable, and the Pick Four, with Blame winning, paid $3,800 for .50.

Monetarily, that photo finish cost me a bunch of money.

I don't regret my decision.  Well, maybe a little.  As a student in the University of Louisville's Equine Business program, I could certainly have used the money.  But I will never forget watching - from six floors above the finish line at Churchill - the moment when Zenyatta came charging at Blame, after her horrific trip in the Classic.  I lost my breath for what seemed like a year. But those five seconds feel like they were worth $3,800.

Blame proved himself to be the great horse I thought he was, but people who say Zenyatta wasn't the best horse in that race are delusional.  Again, this is coming from a guy who has been touting Blame for more than a year and who doubted Zenyatta for a long time.

Zenyatta broke slow, even by her standards.  She struggled with what one Hall of Fame trainer who I cannot mention called a "shitty" track in a private text message.  She had to check at one point because the horse that so many people were touting - Quality Road - backed out of the race early (he finished last).  And Zenyatta still lost by less than a head, marking her absolute greatness in the history of racing.

After the race, certain people in the press box were saying that they would vote for Zenyatta to win Horse of the Year even though she lost, and I was like, WHAT?  Blame won fair and square.  It's not a lifetime achievement award.  Blame deserves it.  He beat Zenyatta.

But after thinking about it, I have changed my mind and believe with the utmost conviction that Zenyatta absolutely deserves the award.  Yes, Blame won a race against her by a razor-thin margin.  But seriously, if that race is run 10 times, Zenyatta wins 9 of them, even as great as Blame is.  If she gets anything resembling a decent trip, she wins.  And while that is the drawback of being such a deep closer as she is, in a race like the Classic, it deserves consideration.  And so does what she's done for the sport of racing.  In every fashion, she is the horse of the year.

She is horse of the decade.

She might even be horse of a lifetime.

Admitted doubter and Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert said she should win horse of the year, even after he believed the winner of the Classic, if it was one of the top four horses, ought to win HOTY.

As for me, I bet with my head, and my heart agreed.

For the only time in my racing life, both were absolutely right.

Breeders' Cup Championship Saturday Picks

Let's just get right to it. Again, these are picks for most likely winners not a predicted order of finish.

JUVENILE TURF

I'll be honest.  I have no idea in this race, but I'll give a hat tip to my buddy Mike for coming up with a nice choice that makes good sense:

SOLDAT (8-1) - After an impressive three-length graded stakes win over the Saratoga turf in September, in his next graded race, Soldat hit the gate, was bumped in the lane and still finished second.  I like the two graded stakes races.  I like his speed figures.  And I like the fact that he closed into a slow pace in his last after much trouble and still almost won.

BANNED (10-1) - He hasn't faced much competition (but neither had AWESOME FEATHER before her romp yesterday).  Banned has won his last two races with ease, and the Proctor barn is high on him.

PLUCK (6-1) - Could Pletcher and Gomez have the Juv. Fillies Turf and Juvenile Turf double?  More Than Real got the first half.  Pluck has drawn a terrible post position (13 of 13), so he could be a toss-out on that fact alone in a one mile race, but this field is a mystery, so why not?

I have no Europeans in my top three.  They were shut out on day 1, a trend I don't expect to last into day 2.  I don't love any of them in here, but I'd give MANTOBA the best shot if you want to go with a Euro.

SPRINT

GIROLAMO and BIG DRAMA are the favs here, and they both have a legitimate case for winning.  But this race quite often produces a longshot winner.  So let's see if we can find him:


KINSALE KING (8-1) - Two races back, he finished behind top European sprinter Starspangledbanner in a Group 1 at Ascot.  If the Turf Sprint were 6 furlongs instead of 5, KING would be in that race, but he's here, he looks great in the morning and he has a touch of class.

WISE DAN (10-1) - He's only three, facing elders, but gee, he's been impressive so far, winning his last three by almost 20 lengths combined.  His trainer, Charles Lopresti, was on fire at Keeneland, taking 6 of 10 starts.

HAMAZING DESTINY (20-1) - I'm not one to pick D. Wayne Lukas horses very often, but this one seems in sharp form, and he seems to like Churchill.  He's stepping up pretty severely in class, but he'll be a nice price, and he's not without a shot in here.

TURF SPRINT

Shoot me now.  They might as well just pull out the roulette wheel for a turf sprint at five furlongs, but let's give it a whirl.  It's almost impossible to win this race from a wide post, so I'm tossing out posts 10-14:

STRADIVINSKY (10-1) - On paper, he does not have the class to win this race, but races aren't run on paper, and if he gets a good break from the three hole, he could be gone.  At five furlongs, this guy is deadly, and he isn't facing a bunch of monsters in here.
 
ROSE CATHERINE (6-1) - Of the four fillies in this race, she's coming out of the fastest races and has won five of her last six, none of them graded stakes races, however.

SILVER TIMBER (4-1) - If someone's going to come late to win this, it'll probably be him. 

CENTRAL CITY, QUICK ENOUGH, BRIDGETOWN AND UNZIP ME are other potential candidates in here.  This race is why they invented the ALL button.

JUVENILE

This seems to be your classic East Coast vs West Coast vs Godolphin matchup.  UNCLE MO is the favorite, but let's try to beat him:

BOYS AT TOSCANOVA (5/2) - This is a HUGE colt with reams of potential.  He's also the only runner in here with experience over the Churchill track.

JB'S THUNDER (12-1) - He's got a couple of routes underneath him, which is fairly rare in this bunch, and he's trained by Al Stall, Jr, who is excelling at the moment.

BIONDETTI (12-1) - Godolphin has won the last two BC Juveniles, and this entrant, took the same path as last year's winner VALE OF YORK, who also won in Italy before coming to the Breeders' Cup.  I'd sort of lean against a three-peat, but this horse is three-for-three.

THE MILE

For once, we have a race that comes up a little chalky.

GOLDIKOVA (6-5) - I played against heavy favorites Winter Memories and Midday yesterday because I thought they were both vulnerable.  Goldikova is in another league.  She has won the most Group 1 races in European history.  I doubt that she'll be beaten, but there a couple of others with a shot in here.

GIO PONTI (4-1) - He's in top form, and he's all class.  He will be in the money.

PROVISO (12-1) - She's won four in a row, mostly against females, but she's got a nasty late kick.  The wide post doesn't help her case, but she could figure in this.

PACO BOY has been Goldikova's whipping boy in Europe, losing three races to her by two necks and half a length, so he's hard to toss, but he doesn't win often enough for me.  SYDNEY'S CANDY is an interesting item, who will try to take them gate to wire, but GET STORMY will be pestering him, and the closers seem to have an edge in here.

DIRT MILE

HERE COMES BEN (6-1) - The progeny of Street Cry seem to like Churchill.  BEN has won four in a row, all at seven furlongs, two of them at Churchill.  He should love the extra furlong as he will be charging home late. His trainer is hot.

TIZWAY (6-1) - This dude has faced some serious competition (namely Quality Road, who would be the heavy favorite in here).  And he's stood up well.  Won his last by five lengths.  HERE COMES BEN may have to come get him.

MORNING LINE (7-2) - He's only three but boy was he game in that Pennsyvlania Derby win.  He ripped through some solid fractions, lost the lead and came back at 'em to win.  Cuts back in distance, but how much did that race take out of him?

TURF

The scratch of the favorite Workforce doesn't change much for me.  I was playing against him anyway.  I'm sure a lot of his money will switch to Bekhabad, so I'll try to beat him too:

AL KHALI (10-1) This kid showed a wicked turn of foot in his last race while changing from his usual frontrunning tactics to take back early and make a late run.  He gets the services of jockey Julien Leparoux, who is deadly on the turf.

DEBUSSY (10-1) - He beat Gio Ponti in the Arlington Million in August.  Gio Ponti would likely be the favorite in this race.  DEBUSSY has also run well against the likes of TWICE OVER (3rd in last year's Classic).  He rates a chance to take this field gate to wire at the 1 1/2 mile distance.

WINCHESTER (8-1) - This trainee of turf master Christophe Clement beat 3-year-old turf star Paddy O'Prado in his last race and lost a neck to Al Khali prior to that.  He'll be coming late and maybe taking this thing down.

THE CLASSIC

It's finally here, the race we've all been waiting for.  Drumroll please...

ZENYATTA (8-5) - This is not just a sentimental pick.  I want her to win, yes, but from a handicapping standpoint, what's not to like?  Yes, she's only beaten the boys once, in last year's Classic, but she's bigger than they are, she has a longer stride than they do, AND the pace of this race ought to set things up perfectly for her late charge.  Haynesfield, First Dude, Etched and Quality Road will all have designs on the lead.  Queen Z will love the long Churchill Downs stretch and as long as Mike Smith gets her in position early enough, she is going to make history.

BLAME (9-2) - Not very creative, I know, but it's hard to argue with this guy's performance in 2010.  He will probably get first jump on the leaders and Zenyatta might have to run him down. He is game and well-trained.  The most likely upsetter.

HAYNESFIELD (12-1) - This runner scares me a bit.  He looks unbelievable right now, and if somehow, he's able to dictate a slower pace than appears on paper, he could be mighty tough to catch.  He'll probably have too much company on the front end, but he's a threat.

I believe QUALITY ROAD, as good as he is, will have a tough time because he will have to jet out of the gate from the one post.  LOOKIN AT LUCKY certainly rates a chance, but he's drawn far outside and has only faced three-year-olds.  A must use underneath is MUSKET MAN.  This dude has NEVER finished out of the money, and he's faced some of these before.  FLY DOWN will be coming late for a piece of the action as well.

Best of luck to you today.  I hope you can enjoy every minute of his historic day.  I know I will.

Breeders' Cup Day 1 Diary

A strange and wonderful opening day for the Breeders' Cup, which went something like this for me:

1:30 PM - Arrive at my University of Louisville parking lot.  Walk to Churchill in brisk wind - real feel temperature = 46 degrees. 

2:00 PM - Arrive at press box, survey the beautiful surroundings from 6 floors above the track:




4:00 PM - The Marathon, the most boring race in the BC (or so I thought) goes off.

4:03 PM (or 7 years to a dog later) - Eldaafer streaks to the wire in front of Prince Will I Am.  I later learn that Eldaafer's trainer has been developing his "slow-twitch" muscle fibers to improve endurance, a nice piece of intel I would've preferred to have had at 3:55 pm.  At least I included him on my pick 3 ticket, which is still alive.

4:05 PM - Someone yells FIGHT! in the press box.  I thought two reporters were pummeling each other or something.  We all scurry to the terrace to discover that below us, Calvin Borel is attacking his fellow jockey, Javier Castellano for cutting him off during the race.  Borel gave new meaning to Ragin' Cajun.  Hey, world, this a passionate sport!  But is there a boxing division below featherweight?



4:10 PM - Official results posted.  Prince Will I Am disqualified, meaning my pick, Gabriel's Hill at 25-1 finishes second.  I only bet him to win.  I mentally pull a Borel on myself.

4:20 PM - As I'm writing up the recap on the Marathon for The Paulick Report and looking up boxing terms, I quickly glance over my picks for the Juvenile Fillies Turf and realize that I had picked New Normal based on his last race at Woodbine (which I loved) and the fact that the Churchill turf had been playing to speed.  But now, I'm fairly certain it's not playing that way anymore.  I still love the race he came out of, so I switch my pick to More Than Real, who closed from the back and finished second in that race.  He's 13-1.  I'm definitely against Winter Memories because well, everyone else seems to think she's a lock.

4:53 PM - Nice call, dude.  More Than Real storms home ahead of Winter Memories, keying a decent trifecta, since I liked Kathmanblu also, and she finished third.  My pick 3 hits and pays $230 for .50.  Since my previous BC betting has been an unmitigated disaster, I take a moment to appreciate me learning something - always be willing to adapt.

5:40 PM - After having tossed 8-1 Dubai Majesty onto my Pick 4 ticket at the last second, I'm relieved when she wins impressively in the Filly and Mare Sprint.

6:15 PM - My pick in the Juvenile Fillies, Awesome Feather, wins at 4-1.  Unfortunately, I didn't do enough with it (I do have to work, you know), so I'm a little disappointed to have the winner and not much to show for it.  At least I'm still alive in the Pick 4.

6:55 PM - I am now dead in the Pick 4.  45-1 Shared Account stuns the press box by beating heavy favorite Midday in the Filly and Mare Turf.  Oh well.

7:25 PM - I hear rumblings that my pick, Life at Ten, is not looking well for the Ladies' Classic.  I don't like last minute rumblings.  I adapt once again and go with my second choices, Unrivaled Belle and Blind Luck, focusing on Unrivaled Belle on top because she's 7-1 and Blind Luck is the 9-5 favorite.

7:30 PM - Oh, what a night!  Unrivaled Belle holds off Blind Luck keying a nice score to round out the day.  It was my best BC day ever, although my joy was tarnished by the incident with Life at Ten.  Based on the information available, the stewards should've held up the start of the race to look into what was being broadcast on ESPN about Life At Ten.  Thankfully, nothing bad happened, but it was unsettling that she was allowed to race.  It all happened so fast - there's probably plenty of regret about it this morning between the track and her connections. Maybe a lesson learned.

I'm sure the racing gods will punish me Saturday for having a good day on Friday but the glow from the Twin Spires and the excitement of Zenyatta's historic run will more than make up for it.

It's almost post time!

Just a few minutes now before the first race of the 2010 Breeders' Cup.  Churchill Downs looks fantastic, especially from way up here in the press box:

Breeders' Cup Picks, Day 1

The Breeders' Cup is following me around, and I like it.  The past two years the BC has been held at Santa Anita, near Los Angeles, where I lived, so I didn't have to travel very far to attend.

A few months ago, I moved to Louisville, and voila, another Breeders' Cup is in my backyard.  Okay, so maybe I'm following the BC instead of the other way around, but eh, details.

Since I'm covering the BC for The Paulick Report, I'll be in the Churchill Downs press box for most of the next two days.  That's not only a great view from the sixth floor, but they have heat up there.  The high today is 46!

Anyway, these picks are my educated guesses at the horses most likely to win, not a predicted order of finish.  As any serious handicapper knows, there's a huge difference.

MARATHON:

If there's any race in the sequence that perhaps would be better handicapped by throwing darts at a board, it's this one.  A mile and 3/4 on the dirt?  Maybe nowhere else in the world will you find such a long race on dirt.  I heard they might use a sun dial to time it.

1. BRIGHT HORIZON (10-1) - Believe it or not, this horse is running a shorter race than he did last time.  He's shipping in from Ireland, where he won a two-mile race on the turf in September.  Big question mark on dirt, but he's the son of one of the world's great sires in Galileo and that's good enough for me. He clearly has the foundation for a race like this.

2.  ALCOMO (6-1) - You might think speedier horses have a disadvantage going this far, but quite the opposite.  The farther they go, the more speed has an advantage if the horse can dictate the pace. There isn't much speed in here, so ALCOMO might inherit the lead.  Rafael Bejarano is riding, and he's simply been fantastic.

3.  GABRIEL'S HILL (20-1) - Bombs away!  Might as well shoot for a price in this race.  If Alcomo doesn't take the lead, GH might.  GH has been working lights out at Churchill and looking fabulous. 

One of these days, GIANT OAK is going to win a race.  He's been right there the last two, but he can't... seem...to...get... there.  Not sure he gets enough pace to run at here. But maybe the extra distance gives him a shot.  AWESOME GEM is the classy favorite, but I'll try to beat him.

JUVENILE FILLIES TURF:

Boy, this is a tough race, but here's a crack at it:

1.  NEW NORMAL  (10-1) - The Churchill turf course tends to play to speed, and in this bunch, I believe she's the fastest.  WYOMIA might get that label, but NEW NORMAL comes out of the fastest turf race in the group, and she could go gate to wire.

2.  KATHMANBLU (10-1) - Everyone seems to think WINTER MEMORIES (2-1) is a lock, but her last race was no faster than a lot of the fillies in here.  KATHMANBLU's 1 1/16 mile races have been just as fast.  I'll take her over WM as the deep closer.

3.  TALE UNTOLD (15-1) -It's hard to ignore the Europeans on the grass, and this one beat TOGETHER (5-1) last out going 7 furlongs at Newmarket in Britain.  Looked like she was crying out for further, and she gets another furlong today.

FILLY AND MARE SPRINT

Again, close your eyes and find a nice sharp object to throw at a cork board.  By the way, it's not because, in general, racing is a crapshoot.  It's only because these races are filled with the best of the best, and it's tough to separate them in many cases.  That's why the BC is so awesome.

RIGHTLY SO seems a deserving favorite.  In her last 10 races, she's had the lead at nearly every point of call, and she's won seven of them.  But this race seems more complex than that:

1. EVENING JEWEL (15-1) - That's right, the filly that's won half of her last dozen races and been in the money every single one of them is 15-1.  She rarely wins by more than a nose hair, but neither does Zenyatta.

2.  GABBY'S GOLDEN GAL (15-1) - She hasn't raced since January, so that should be a strike against her.  But trainer Bob Baffert is known for being sneaky good with this kind.  Think MIDNIGHT LUTE (long layoff winner in the BC Sprint TWICE).

3.  SECRET GYPSY (12-1) - She's a longshot, but she's won her last three races by at least a length, albeit against lesser competition.  Her speed figures t'ain't bad.

The near-favorite INFORMED DECISION is only five years old, but she seems like a grandmother as much as she's been on the scene.  Still, never count her out of a big-time sprint.

JUVENILE FILLIES

1. AWESOME FEATHER (6-1) - Maybe you're sensing a theme.  Anyone can give you AZ WARRIOR.  She's the favorite, and maybe she'll win.  But in a race for barely-formed two-year-old girls, I have to look elsewhere.  Although she's been racing at Calder against who-knows-what, AWESOME FEATHER has beaten her competition by a combined 17 lengths in her last three starts.

2. THEYSKENS' THEORY (10-1) - The filly named after a New York fashion label is racing in the US and on dirt for the first time, but she has a dirt pedigree to die for, by Bernardini, out of the Summer Squall mare, Heat Lightning. 

3.  JOYFUL VICTORY (15-1) - 'Nother longshot, but any two-year-old by Tapit is a potential sit-up-and-pay-attention runner.

FILLY AND MARE TURF

Alright, so, everyone on the planet has penciled in MIDDAY to win this thing.  She's the mare from Europe who won it last year, and admittedly, she looks a tough nut to crack.  But let me give you three alternatives:

1.  HARMONIOUS (6-1)  She's only three, and that's a strike against.  It's tough for a three-year-old to win this race.  But it's been done before, and I've seen her work in the mornings at Churchill, and there probably isn't a horse in the Breeders' Cup that looks better moving over the track than her.  She has a gorgeous stride. It doesn't equate to winning a race like this, but she won her last race by almost five lengths, so I wouldn't toss her.

2.  KEERTANA (30-1) - Laugh all you want, but this filly loves Churchill and the distance, and she's trained by Tom Proctor, who's been known to win a BC race at 47-1.  I certainly would play her underneath in any event.

3.  ECLAIR DE LUNE (15-1) - Now, I have you rolling in the aisles.  But her form is sharp, and she's trained by Ron McAnally, a very astute guy. 

The Japanese filly RED DESIRE is getting lots of attention as are Europeans HIBAAYEB and PLUMANIA.  I don't doubt any one of them could win this, but I'll stick with my three.

LADIES' CLASSIC:

This race is filled with exceptional females.  I could make a case for half the field, at least:

1.  LIFE AT TEN (7-2) - I'm a sucker for horses who simply win.  She's only won seven of her last eight starts.  None of them have come at Churchill, which could be an issue, but it's hard to argue her record lately, and she's looked great in the mornings.

2.  BLIND LUCK (9-5) I find it impossible to leave this filly out of the exacta.  She's been in it 8 of the last 10 times.  But as a three-year-old, she's also facing elders for the first time, and that's always tough.  She'll be storming home late, and she will make this race a nail biter, no matter what.

3.  UNRIVALED BELLE (8-1) - She looks fantastic on the track in the mornings, but she's been beaten the last three races by Todd Pletcher's tandem of LIFE AT TEN AND MALIBU PRAYER, so I have hesitation backing her to win.  Still, I like her a lot. 

Besides MALIBU PRAYER, it's hard to ignore HAVRE DE GRACE.  She's battled with BLIND LUCK the last three races right to the wire, winning one of them.  But you can't pick 'em all.

If I've learned anything while playing the Breeders' Cup, it's that you should pick a couple of spots and go for it.  You only need to be right once to take down a nice score.  Good luck!

Zenyatta goes back in time, beats all-time greats

The debate over whether Zenyatta is the greatest horse ever will, frankly, never be settled.  If she wins the Breeders' Cup Classic, it's hard to argue against her, but people will.  She can't race against the greats of the past.

Or can she?

The NTRA has produced a race simulation pitting Zenyatta against some of the great horses in racing history - Citation, Affirmed, Rachel Alexandra and others.

You can watch the virtual race below.  Secretariat is notably absent.  I assume he was a late scratch OR the result was specifically designed as a Zenyatta promotion.  Decide for yourself.  I'm as big a Z fan as there is, and she has won every race when certain other greats lost races (sometimes more than one), but this may border on suspicious.

No matter.  It's just kind of fun to watch: