The Breeders' Cup is following me around, and I like it. The past two years the BC has been held at Santa Anita, near Los Angeles, where I lived, so I didn't have to travel very far to attend.
A few months ago, I moved to Louisville, and voila, another Breeders' Cup is in my backyard. Okay, so maybe I'm following the BC instead of the other way around, but eh, details.
Since I'm covering the BC for The Paulick Report, I'll be in the Churchill Downs press box for most of the next two days. That's not only a great view from the sixth floor, but they have heat up there. The high today is 46!
Anyway, these picks are my educated guesses at the horses most likely to win, not a predicted order of finish. As any serious handicapper knows, there's a huge difference.
MARATHON:
If there's any race in the sequence that perhaps would be better handicapped by throwing darts at a board, it's this one. A mile and 3/4 on the dirt? Maybe nowhere else in the world will you find such a long race on dirt. I heard they might use a sun dial to time it.
1. BRIGHT HORIZON (10-1) - Believe it or not, this horse is running a shorter race than he did last time. He's shipping in from Ireland, where he won a two-mile race on the turf in September. Big question mark on dirt, but he's the son of one of the world's great sires in Galileo and that's good enough for me. He clearly has the foundation for a race like this.
2. ALCOMO (6-1) - You might think speedier horses have a disadvantage going this far, but quite the opposite. The farther they go, the more speed has an advantage if the horse can dictate the pace. There isn't much speed in here, so ALCOMO might inherit the lead. Rafael Bejarano is riding, and he's simply been fantastic.
3. GABRIEL'S HILL (20-1) - Bombs away! Might as well shoot for a price in this race. If Alcomo doesn't take the lead, GH might. GH has been working lights out at Churchill and looking fabulous.
One of these days, GIANT OAK is going to win a race. He's been right there the last two, but he can't... seem...to...get... there. Not sure he gets enough pace to run at here. But maybe the extra distance gives him a shot. AWESOME GEM is the classy favorite, but I'll try to beat him.
JUVENILE FILLIES TURF:
Boy, this is a tough race, but here's a crack at it:
1. NEW NORMAL (10-1) - The Churchill turf course tends to play to speed, and in this bunch, I believe she's the fastest. WYOMIA might get that label, but NEW NORMAL comes out of the fastest turf race in the group, and she could go gate to wire.
2. KATHMANBLU (10-1) - Everyone seems to think WINTER MEMORIES (2-1) is a lock, but her last race was no faster than a lot of the fillies in here. KATHMANBLU's 1 1/16 mile races have been just as fast. I'll take her over WM as the deep closer.
3. TALE UNTOLD (15-1) -It's hard to ignore the Europeans on the grass, and this one beat TOGETHER (5-1) last out going 7 furlongs at Newmarket in Britain. Looked like she was crying out for further, and she gets another furlong today.
FILLY AND MARE SPRINT
Again, close your eyes and find a nice sharp object to throw at a cork board. By the way, it's not because, in general, racing is a crapshoot. It's only because these races are filled with the best of the best, and it's tough to separate them in many cases. That's why the BC is so awesome.
RIGHTLY SO seems a deserving favorite. In her last 10 races, she's had the lead at nearly every point of call, and she's won seven of them. But this race seems more complex than that:
1. EVENING JEWEL (15-1) - That's right, the filly that's won half of her last dozen races and been in the money every single one of them is 15-1. She rarely wins by more than a nose hair, but neither does Zenyatta.
2. GABBY'S GOLDEN GAL (15-1) - She hasn't raced since January, so that should be a strike against her. But trainer Bob Baffert is known for being sneaky good with this kind. Think MIDNIGHT LUTE (long layoff winner in the BC Sprint TWICE).
3. SECRET GYPSY (12-1) - She's a longshot, but she's won her last three races by at least a length, albeit against lesser competition. Her speed figures t'ain't bad.
The near-favorite INFORMED DECISION is only five years old, but she seems like a grandmother as much as she's been on the scene. Still, never count her out of a big-time sprint.
JUVENILE FILLIES
1. AWESOME FEATHER (6-1) - Maybe you're sensing a theme. Anyone can give you AZ WARRIOR. She's the favorite, and maybe she'll win. But in a race for barely-formed two-year-old girls, I have to look elsewhere. Although she's been racing at Calder against who-knows-what, AWESOME FEATHER has beaten her competition by a combined 17 lengths in her last three starts.
2. THEYSKENS' THEORY (10-1) - The filly named after a New York fashion label is racing in the US and on dirt for the first time, but she has a dirt pedigree to die for, by Bernardini, out of the Summer Squall mare, Heat Lightning.
3. JOYFUL VICTORY (15-1) - 'Nother longshot, but any two-year-old by Tapit is a potential sit-up-and-pay-attention runner.
FILLY AND MARE TURF
Alright, so, everyone on the planet has penciled in MIDDAY to win this thing. She's the mare from Europe who won it last year, and admittedly, she looks a tough nut to crack. But let me give you three alternatives:
1. HARMONIOUS (6-1) She's only three, and that's a strike against. It's tough for a three-year-old to win this race. But it's been done before, and I've seen her work in the mornings at Churchill, and there probably isn't a horse in the Breeders' Cup that looks better moving over the track than her. She has a gorgeous stride. It doesn't equate to winning a race like this, but she won her last race by almost five lengths, so I wouldn't toss her.
2. KEERTANA (30-1) - Laugh all you want, but this filly loves Churchill and the distance, and she's trained by Tom Proctor, who's been known to win a BC race at 47-1. I certainly would play her underneath in any event.
3. ECLAIR DE LUNE (15-1) - Now, I have you rolling in the aisles. But her form is sharp, and she's trained by Ron McAnally, a very astute guy.
The Japanese filly RED DESIRE is getting lots of attention as are Europeans HIBAAYEB and PLUMANIA. I don't doubt any one of them could win this, but I'll stick with my three.
LADIES' CLASSIC:
This race is filled with exceptional females. I could make a case for half the field, at least:
1. LIFE AT TEN (7-2) - I'm a sucker for horses who simply win. She's only won seven of her last eight starts. None of them have come at Churchill, which could be an issue, but it's hard to argue her record lately, and she's looked great in the mornings.
2. BLIND LUCK (9-5) I find it impossible to leave this filly out of the exacta. She's been in it 8 of the last 10 times. But as a three-year-old, she's also facing elders for the first time, and that's always tough. She'll be storming home late, and she will make this race a nail biter, no matter what.
3. UNRIVALED BELLE (8-1) - She looks fantastic on the track in the mornings, but she's been beaten the last three races by Todd Pletcher's tandem of LIFE AT TEN AND MALIBU PRAYER, so I have hesitation backing her to win. Still, I like her a lot.
Besides MALIBU PRAYER, it's hard to ignore HAVRE DE GRACE. She's battled with BLIND LUCK the last three races right to the wire, winning one of them. But you can't pick 'em all.
If I've learned anything while playing the Breeders' Cup, it's that you should pick a couple of spots and go for it. You only need to be right once to take down a nice score. Good luck!
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