Zenyatta's heart and my head

One of the cardinal rules of handicapping horses is that you should never bet with your heart - well, I bet with my head in the Breeders' Cup Classic, so how did I do?




I wrote earlier this year that Blame and Zenyatta were the best horses in training in the US, bar none.  And clearly, that opinion proved correct Saturday night.  So, I must have made a ton of money on the Classic.

Nope.  I didn't make a cent.  I suppose that requires explanation.

I've been a Blame fan for the past year.  At 5-1, I picked him to win the Clark Handicap Thanksgiving weekend at Churchill last November, and I've been on him every single race since, even as his price dropped to even money most times.  I knew he was a phenomenal horse right from the beginning, something I've never been able to say, being a relative newcomer to the sport.  Conversely, I bet against Zenyatta time and time again early in her career because I was determined to bet with my head, not my heart.

But Zenyatta eventually won me over with her heart and in my head.  And after assessing the Breeders' Cup with purely a handicapper's eye, despite all the naysayers, and as good as I knew Blame to be, I believed with every fiber of my soul that Zenyatta was the best horse in the Classic.  I was sure all that negative stuff about her running on synthetics and not facing males was pure bunk.  She was bigger, faster and stronger than the best male horses in this country.

So when it came to Saturday's Classic, as much as I loved Blame, I loved Zenyatta more.  And with that opinion, I played the Pick Four. 

I started off with the obvious single on Goldikova.  I had played against every favorite in the BC up until then, but I loved Goldikova as much as I loved Zenyatta, and Goldi won like the champion she is.  Off to a good, but obvious start.

In leg two, I was elated when 37-1 Dakota Phone won because that assured that the Pick Four would have some value, and he was on my ticket.  If you're going to play a Pick Four with Goldikova, you'd better get value elsewhere.  In leg three, again, a nice price on my ticket - 8-1 Dangerous Midge - who was originally my pick, but for some reason, I got off of him in my "official" selections.  At least I included him in the Pick Four.

Then, it came down to the Classic.  When I made out my Pick Four ticket, I was flush with cash after doing very well on Friday, so I could've easily made the Classic a two-horse race, as I had been saying all along. 

But I didn't.  I singled Zenyatta.

In hindsight, it seems foolish.  If I believed Blame and Zenyatta were the only two horses that could win the Classic, why would I single Zenyatta?  I've been asking myself that question for the past two days.

I guess it's because I wanted to be all in on the great mare.  I had some sort of instinct to live or die with her.  Even after singling her in the Pick Four, I had the opportunity to bet a nice exacta with Blame over Zenyatta right before the race, and I just couldn't do it.  It was strange.  My mind and my body could not pull the trigger, even though in many, many other circumstances, I have easily done such a thing to "hedge" financially.

I just felt a strong pull that I could not resist to put all my chips on Zenyatta.

It cost me a lot of money.  The exacta was reasonable, and the Pick Four, with Blame winning, paid $3,800 for .50.

Monetarily, that photo finish cost me a bunch of money.

I don't regret my decision.  Well, maybe a little.  As a student in the University of Louisville's Equine Business program, I could certainly have used the money.  But I will never forget watching - from six floors above the finish line at Churchill - the moment when Zenyatta came charging at Blame, after her horrific trip in the Classic.  I lost my breath for what seemed like a year. But those five seconds feel like they were worth $3,800.

Blame proved himself to be the great horse I thought he was, but people who say Zenyatta wasn't the best horse in that race are delusional.  Again, this is coming from a guy who has been touting Blame for more than a year and who doubted Zenyatta for a long time.

Zenyatta broke slow, even by her standards.  She struggled with what one Hall of Fame trainer who I cannot mention called a "shitty" track in a private text message.  She had to check at one point because the horse that so many people were touting - Quality Road - backed out of the race early (he finished last).  And Zenyatta still lost by less than a head, marking her absolute greatness in the history of racing.

After the race, certain people in the press box were saying that they would vote for Zenyatta to win Horse of the Year even though she lost, and I was like, WHAT?  Blame won fair and square.  It's not a lifetime achievement award.  Blame deserves it.  He beat Zenyatta.

But after thinking about it, I have changed my mind and believe with the utmost conviction that Zenyatta absolutely deserves the award.  Yes, Blame won a race against her by a razor-thin margin.  But seriously, if that race is run 10 times, Zenyatta wins 9 of them, even as great as Blame is.  If she gets anything resembling a decent trip, she wins.  And while that is the drawback of being such a deep closer as she is, in a race like the Classic, it deserves consideration.  And so does what she's done for the sport of racing.  In every fashion, she is the horse of the year.

She is horse of the decade.

She might even be horse of a lifetime.

Admitted doubter and Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert said she should win horse of the year, even after he believed the winner of the Classic, if it was one of the top four horses, ought to win HOTY.

As for me, I bet with my head, and my heart agreed.

For the only time in my racing life, both were absolutely right.