Zenyatta's heart and my head

One of the cardinal rules of handicapping horses is that you should never bet with your heart - well, I bet with my head in the Breeders' Cup Classic, so how did I do?




I wrote earlier this year that Blame and Zenyatta were the best horses in training in the US, bar none.  And clearly, that opinion proved correct Saturday night.  So, I must have made a ton of money on the Classic.

Nope.  I didn't make a cent.  I suppose that requires explanation.

I've been a Blame fan for the past year.  At 5-1, I picked him to win the Clark Handicap Thanksgiving weekend at Churchill last November, and I've been on him every single race since, even as his price dropped to even money most times.  I knew he was a phenomenal horse right from the beginning, something I've never been able to say, being a relative newcomer to the sport.  Conversely, I bet against Zenyatta time and time again early in her career because I was determined to bet with my head, not my heart.

But Zenyatta eventually won me over with her heart and in my head.  And after assessing the Breeders' Cup with purely a handicapper's eye, despite all the naysayers, and as good as I knew Blame to be, I believed with every fiber of my soul that Zenyatta was the best horse in the Classic.  I was sure all that negative stuff about her running on synthetics and not facing males was pure bunk.  She was bigger, faster and stronger than the best male horses in this country.

So when it came to Saturday's Classic, as much as I loved Blame, I loved Zenyatta more.  And with that opinion, I played the Pick Four. 

I started off with the obvious single on Goldikova.  I had played against every favorite in the BC up until then, but I loved Goldikova as much as I loved Zenyatta, and Goldi won like the champion she is.  Off to a good, but obvious start.

In leg two, I was elated when 37-1 Dakota Phone won because that assured that the Pick Four would have some value, and he was on my ticket.  If you're going to play a Pick Four with Goldikova, you'd better get value elsewhere.  In leg three, again, a nice price on my ticket - 8-1 Dangerous Midge - who was originally my pick, but for some reason, I got off of him in my "official" selections.  At least I included him in the Pick Four.

Then, it came down to the Classic.  When I made out my Pick Four ticket, I was flush with cash after doing very well on Friday, so I could've easily made the Classic a two-horse race, as I had been saying all along. 

But I didn't.  I singled Zenyatta.

In hindsight, it seems foolish.  If I believed Blame and Zenyatta were the only two horses that could win the Classic, why would I single Zenyatta?  I've been asking myself that question for the past two days.

I guess it's because I wanted to be all in on the great mare.  I had some sort of instinct to live or die with her.  Even after singling her in the Pick Four, I had the opportunity to bet a nice exacta with Blame over Zenyatta right before the race, and I just couldn't do it.  It was strange.  My mind and my body could not pull the trigger, even though in many, many other circumstances, I have easily done such a thing to "hedge" financially.

I just felt a strong pull that I could not resist to put all my chips on Zenyatta.

It cost me a lot of money.  The exacta was reasonable, and the Pick Four, with Blame winning, paid $3,800 for .50.

Monetarily, that photo finish cost me a bunch of money.

I don't regret my decision.  Well, maybe a little.  As a student in the University of Louisville's Equine Business program, I could certainly have used the money.  But I will never forget watching - from six floors above the finish line at Churchill - the moment when Zenyatta came charging at Blame, after her horrific trip in the Classic.  I lost my breath for what seemed like a year. But those five seconds feel like they were worth $3,800.

Blame proved himself to be the great horse I thought he was, but people who say Zenyatta wasn't the best horse in that race are delusional.  Again, this is coming from a guy who has been touting Blame for more than a year and who doubted Zenyatta for a long time.

Zenyatta broke slow, even by her standards.  She struggled with what one Hall of Fame trainer who I cannot mention called a "shitty" track in a private text message.  She had to check at one point because the horse that so many people were touting - Quality Road - backed out of the race early (he finished last).  And Zenyatta still lost by less than a head, marking her absolute greatness in the history of racing.

After the race, certain people in the press box were saying that they would vote for Zenyatta to win Horse of the Year even though she lost, and I was like, WHAT?  Blame won fair and square.  It's not a lifetime achievement award.  Blame deserves it.  He beat Zenyatta.

But after thinking about it, I have changed my mind and believe with the utmost conviction that Zenyatta absolutely deserves the award.  Yes, Blame won a race against her by a razor-thin margin.  But seriously, if that race is run 10 times, Zenyatta wins 9 of them, even as great as Blame is.  If she gets anything resembling a decent trip, she wins.  And while that is the drawback of being such a deep closer as she is, in a race like the Classic, it deserves consideration.  And so does what she's done for the sport of racing.  In every fashion, she is the horse of the year.

She is horse of the decade.

She might even be horse of a lifetime.

Admitted doubter and Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert said she should win horse of the year, even after he believed the winner of the Classic, if it was one of the top four horses, ought to win HOTY.

As for me, I bet with my head, and my heart agreed.

For the only time in my racing life, both were absolutely right.

Breeders' Cup Championship Saturday Picks

Let's just get right to it. Again, these are picks for most likely winners not a predicted order of finish.

JUVENILE TURF

I'll be honest.  I have no idea in this race, but I'll give a hat tip to my buddy Mike for coming up with a nice choice that makes good sense:

SOLDAT (8-1) - After an impressive three-length graded stakes win over the Saratoga turf in September, in his next graded race, Soldat hit the gate, was bumped in the lane and still finished second.  I like the two graded stakes races.  I like his speed figures.  And I like the fact that he closed into a slow pace in his last after much trouble and still almost won.

BANNED (10-1) - He hasn't faced much competition (but neither had AWESOME FEATHER before her romp yesterday).  Banned has won his last two races with ease, and the Proctor barn is high on him.

PLUCK (6-1) - Could Pletcher and Gomez have the Juv. Fillies Turf and Juvenile Turf double?  More Than Real got the first half.  Pluck has drawn a terrible post position (13 of 13), so he could be a toss-out on that fact alone in a one mile race, but this field is a mystery, so why not?

I have no Europeans in my top three.  They were shut out on day 1, a trend I don't expect to last into day 2.  I don't love any of them in here, but I'd give MANTOBA the best shot if you want to go with a Euro.

SPRINT

GIROLAMO and BIG DRAMA are the favs here, and they both have a legitimate case for winning.  But this race quite often produces a longshot winner.  So let's see if we can find him:


KINSALE KING (8-1) - Two races back, he finished behind top European sprinter Starspangledbanner in a Group 1 at Ascot.  If the Turf Sprint were 6 furlongs instead of 5, KING would be in that race, but he's here, he looks great in the morning and he has a touch of class.

WISE DAN (10-1) - He's only three, facing elders, but gee, he's been impressive so far, winning his last three by almost 20 lengths combined.  His trainer, Charles Lopresti, was on fire at Keeneland, taking 6 of 10 starts.

HAMAZING DESTINY (20-1) - I'm not one to pick D. Wayne Lukas horses very often, but this one seems in sharp form, and he seems to like Churchill.  He's stepping up pretty severely in class, but he'll be a nice price, and he's not without a shot in here.

TURF SPRINT

Shoot me now.  They might as well just pull out the roulette wheel for a turf sprint at five furlongs, but let's give it a whirl.  It's almost impossible to win this race from a wide post, so I'm tossing out posts 10-14:

STRADIVINSKY (10-1) - On paper, he does not have the class to win this race, but races aren't run on paper, and if he gets a good break from the three hole, he could be gone.  At five furlongs, this guy is deadly, and he isn't facing a bunch of monsters in here.
 
ROSE CATHERINE (6-1) - Of the four fillies in this race, she's coming out of the fastest races and has won five of her last six, none of them graded stakes races, however.

SILVER TIMBER (4-1) - If someone's going to come late to win this, it'll probably be him. 

CENTRAL CITY, QUICK ENOUGH, BRIDGETOWN AND UNZIP ME are other potential candidates in here.  This race is why they invented the ALL button.

JUVENILE

This seems to be your classic East Coast vs West Coast vs Godolphin matchup.  UNCLE MO is the favorite, but let's try to beat him:

BOYS AT TOSCANOVA (5/2) - This is a HUGE colt with reams of potential.  He's also the only runner in here with experience over the Churchill track.

JB'S THUNDER (12-1) - He's got a couple of routes underneath him, which is fairly rare in this bunch, and he's trained by Al Stall, Jr, who is excelling at the moment.

BIONDETTI (12-1) - Godolphin has won the last two BC Juveniles, and this entrant, took the same path as last year's winner VALE OF YORK, who also won in Italy before coming to the Breeders' Cup.  I'd sort of lean against a three-peat, but this horse is three-for-three.

THE MILE

For once, we have a race that comes up a little chalky.

GOLDIKOVA (6-5) - I played against heavy favorites Winter Memories and Midday yesterday because I thought they were both vulnerable.  Goldikova is in another league.  She has won the most Group 1 races in European history.  I doubt that she'll be beaten, but there a couple of others with a shot in here.

GIO PONTI (4-1) - He's in top form, and he's all class.  He will be in the money.

PROVISO (12-1) - She's won four in a row, mostly against females, but she's got a nasty late kick.  The wide post doesn't help her case, but she could figure in this.

PACO BOY has been Goldikova's whipping boy in Europe, losing three races to her by two necks and half a length, so he's hard to toss, but he doesn't win often enough for me.  SYDNEY'S CANDY is an interesting item, who will try to take them gate to wire, but GET STORMY will be pestering him, and the closers seem to have an edge in here.

DIRT MILE

HERE COMES BEN (6-1) - The progeny of Street Cry seem to like Churchill.  BEN has won four in a row, all at seven furlongs, two of them at Churchill.  He should love the extra furlong as he will be charging home late. His trainer is hot.

TIZWAY (6-1) - This dude has faced some serious competition (namely Quality Road, who would be the heavy favorite in here).  And he's stood up well.  Won his last by five lengths.  HERE COMES BEN may have to come get him.

MORNING LINE (7-2) - He's only three but boy was he game in that Pennsyvlania Derby win.  He ripped through some solid fractions, lost the lead and came back at 'em to win.  Cuts back in distance, but how much did that race take out of him?

TURF

The scratch of the favorite Workforce doesn't change much for me.  I was playing against him anyway.  I'm sure a lot of his money will switch to Bekhabad, so I'll try to beat him too:

AL KHALI (10-1) This kid showed a wicked turn of foot in his last race while changing from his usual frontrunning tactics to take back early and make a late run.  He gets the services of jockey Julien Leparoux, who is deadly on the turf.

DEBUSSY (10-1) - He beat Gio Ponti in the Arlington Million in August.  Gio Ponti would likely be the favorite in this race.  DEBUSSY has also run well against the likes of TWICE OVER (3rd in last year's Classic).  He rates a chance to take this field gate to wire at the 1 1/2 mile distance.

WINCHESTER (8-1) - This trainee of turf master Christophe Clement beat 3-year-old turf star Paddy O'Prado in his last race and lost a neck to Al Khali prior to that.  He'll be coming late and maybe taking this thing down.

THE CLASSIC

It's finally here, the race we've all been waiting for.  Drumroll please...

ZENYATTA (8-5) - This is not just a sentimental pick.  I want her to win, yes, but from a handicapping standpoint, what's not to like?  Yes, she's only beaten the boys once, in last year's Classic, but she's bigger than they are, she has a longer stride than they do, AND the pace of this race ought to set things up perfectly for her late charge.  Haynesfield, First Dude, Etched and Quality Road will all have designs on the lead.  Queen Z will love the long Churchill Downs stretch and as long as Mike Smith gets her in position early enough, she is going to make history.

BLAME (9-2) - Not very creative, I know, but it's hard to argue with this guy's performance in 2010.  He will probably get first jump on the leaders and Zenyatta might have to run him down. He is game and well-trained.  The most likely upsetter.

HAYNESFIELD (12-1) - This runner scares me a bit.  He looks unbelievable right now, and if somehow, he's able to dictate a slower pace than appears on paper, he could be mighty tough to catch.  He'll probably have too much company on the front end, but he's a threat.

I believe QUALITY ROAD, as good as he is, will have a tough time because he will have to jet out of the gate from the one post.  LOOKIN AT LUCKY certainly rates a chance, but he's drawn far outside and has only faced three-year-olds.  A must use underneath is MUSKET MAN.  This dude has NEVER finished out of the money, and he's faced some of these before.  FLY DOWN will be coming late for a piece of the action as well.

Best of luck to you today.  I hope you can enjoy every minute of his historic day.  I know I will.

Breeders' Cup Day 1 Diary

A strange and wonderful opening day for the Breeders' Cup, which went something like this for me:

1:30 PM - Arrive at my University of Louisville parking lot.  Walk to Churchill in brisk wind - real feel temperature = 46 degrees. 

2:00 PM - Arrive at press box, survey the beautiful surroundings from 6 floors above the track:




4:00 PM - The Marathon, the most boring race in the BC (or so I thought) goes off.

4:03 PM (or 7 years to a dog later) - Eldaafer streaks to the wire in front of Prince Will I Am.  I later learn that Eldaafer's trainer has been developing his "slow-twitch" muscle fibers to improve endurance, a nice piece of intel I would've preferred to have had at 3:55 pm.  At least I included him on my pick 3 ticket, which is still alive.

4:05 PM - Someone yells FIGHT! in the press box.  I thought two reporters were pummeling each other or something.  We all scurry to the terrace to discover that below us, Calvin Borel is attacking his fellow jockey, Javier Castellano for cutting him off during the race.  Borel gave new meaning to Ragin' Cajun.  Hey, world, this a passionate sport!  But is there a boxing division below featherweight?



4:10 PM - Official results posted.  Prince Will I Am disqualified, meaning my pick, Gabriel's Hill at 25-1 finishes second.  I only bet him to win.  I mentally pull a Borel on myself.

4:20 PM - As I'm writing up the recap on the Marathon for The Paulick Report and looking up boxing terms, I quickly glance over my picks for the Juvenile Fillies Turf and realize that I had picked New Normal based on his last race at Woodbine (which I loved) and the fact that the Churchill turf had been playing to speed.  But now, I'm fairly certain it's not playing that way anymore.  I still love the race he came out of, so I switch my pick to More Than Real, who closed from the back and finished second in that race.  He's 13-1.  I'm definitely against Winter Memories because well, everyone else seems to think she's a lock.

4:53 PM - Nice call, dude.  More Than Real storms home ahead of Winter Memories, keying a decent trifecta, since I liked Kathmanblu also, and she finished third.  My pick 3 hits and pays $230 for .50.  Since my previous BC betting has been an unmitigated disaster, I take a moment to appreciate me learning something - always be willing to adapt.

5:40 PM - After having tossed 8-1 Dubai Majesty onto my Pick 4 ticket at the last second, I'm relieved when she wins impressively in the Filly and Mare Sprint.

6:15 PM - My pick in the Juvenile Fillies, Awesome Feather, wins at 4-1.  Unfortunately, I didn't do enough with it (I do have to work, you know), so I'm a little disappointed to have the winner and not much to show for it.  At least I'm still alive in the Pick 4.

6:55 PM - I am now dead in the Pick 4.  45-1 Shared Account stuns the press box by beating heavy favorite Midday in the Filly and Mare Turf.  Oh well.

7:25 PM - I hear rumblings that my pick, Life at Ten, is not looking well for the Ladies' Classic.  I don't like last minute rumblings.  I adapt once again and go with my second choices, Unrivaled Belle and Blind Luck, focusing on Unrivaled Belle on top because she's 7-1 and Blind Luck is the 9-5 favorite.

7:30 PM - Oh, what a night!  Unrivaled Belle holds off Blind Luck keying a nice score to round out the day.  It was my best BC day ever, although my joy was tarnished by the incident with Life at Ten.  Based on the information available, the stewards should've held up the start of the race to look into what was being broadcast on ESPN about Life At Ten.  Thankfully, nothing bad happened, but it was unsettling that she was allowed to race.  It all happened so fast - there's probably plenty of regret about it this morning between the track and her connections. Maybe a lesson learned.

I'm sure the racing gods will punish me Saturday for having a good day on Friday but the glow from the Twin Spires and the excitement of Zenyatta's historic run will more than make up for it.

It's almost post time!

Just a few minutes now before the first race of the 2010 Breeders' Cup.  Churchill Downs looks fantastic, especially from way up here in the press box:

Breeders' Cup Picks, Day 1

The Breeders' Cup is following me around, and I like it.  The past two years the BC has been held at Santa Anita, near Los Angeles, where I lived, so I didn't have to travel very far to attend.

A few months ago, I moved to Louisville, and voila, another Breeders' Cup is in my backyard.  Okay, so maybe I'm following the BC instead of the other way around, but eh, details.

Since I'm covering the BC for The Paulick Report, I'll be in the Churchill Downs press box for most of the next two days.  That's not only a great view from the sixth floor, but they have heat up there.  The high today is 46!

Anyway, these picks are my educated guesses at the horses most likely to win, not a predicted order of finish.  As any serious handicapper knows, there's a huge difference.

MARATHON:

If there's any race in the sequence that perhaps would be better handicapped by throwing darts at a board, it's this one.  A mile and 3/4 on the dirt?  Maybe nowhere else in the world will you find such a long race on dirt.  I heard they might use a sun dial to time it.

1. BRIGHT HORIZON (10-1) - Believe it or not, this horse is running a shorter race than he did last time.  He's shipping in from Ireland, where he won a two-mile race on the turf in September.  Big question mark on dirt, but he's the son of one of the world's great sires in Galileo and that's good enough for me. He clearly has the foundation for a race like this.

2.  ALCOMO (6-1) - You might think speedier horses have a disadvantage going this far, but quite the opposite.  The farther they go, the more speed has an advantage if the horse can dictate the pace. There isn't much speed in here, so ALCOMO might inherit the lead.  Rafael Bejarano is riding, and he's simply been fantastic.

3.  GABRIEL'S HILL (20-1) - Bombs away!  Might as well shoot for a price in this race.  If Alcomo doesn't take the lead, GH might.  GH has been working lights out at Churchill and looking fabulous. 

One of these days, GIANT OAK is going to win a race.  He's been right there the last two, but he can't... seem...to...get... there.  Not sure he gets enough pace to run at here. But maybe the extra distance gives him a shot.  AWESOME GEM is the classy favorite, but I'll try to beat him.

JUVENILE FILLIES TURF:

Boy, this is a tough race, but here's a crack at it:

1.  NEW NORMAL  (10-1) - The Churchill turf course tends to play to speed, and in this bunch, I believe she's the fastest.  WYOMIA might get that label, but NEW NORMAL comes out of the fastest turf race in the group, and she could go gate to wire.

2.  KATHMANBLU (10-1) - Everyone seems to think WINTER MEMORIES (2-1) is a lock, but her last race was no faster than a lot of the fillies in here.  KATHMANBLU's 1 1/16 mile races have been just as fast.  I'll take her over WM as the deep closer.

3.  TALE UNTOLD (15-1) -It's hard to ignore the Europeans on the grass, and this one beat TOGETHER (5-1) last out going 7 furlongs at Newmarket in Britain.  Looked like she was crying out for further, and she gets another furlong today.

FILLY AND MARE SPRINT

Again, close your eyes and find a nice sharp object to throw at a cork board.  By the way, it's not because, in general, racing is a crapshoot.  It's only because these races are filled with the best of the best, and it's tough to separate them in many cases.  That's why the BC is so awesome.

RIGHTLY SO seems a deserving favorite.  In her last 10 races, she's had the lead at nearly every point of call, and she's won seven of them.  But this race seems more complex than that:

1. EVENING JEWEL (15-1) - That's right, the filly that's won half of her last dozen races and been in the money every single one of them is 15-1.  She rarely wins by more than a nose hair, but neither does Zenyatta.

2.  GABBY'S GOLDEN GAL (15-1) - She hasn't raced since January, so that should be a strike against her.  But trainer Bob Baffert is known for being sneaky good with this kind.  Think MIDNIGHT LUTE (long layoff winner in the BC Sprint TWICE).

3.  SECRET GYPSY (12-1) - She's a longshot, but she's won her last three races by at least a length, albeit against lesser competition.  Her speed figures t'ain't bad.

The near-favorite INFORMED DECISION is only five years old, but she seems like a grandmother as much as she's been on the scene.  Still, never count her out of a big-time sprint.

JUVENILE FILLIES

1. AWESOME FEATHER (6-1) - Maybe you're sensing a theme.  Anyone can give you AZ WARRIOR.  She's the favorite, and maybe she'll win.  But in a race for barely-formed two-year-old girls, I have to look elsewhere.  Although she's been racing at Calder against who-knows-what, AWESOME FEATHER has beaten her competition by a combined 17 lengths in her last three starts.

2. THEYSKENS' THEORY (10-1) - The filly named after a New York fashion label is racing in the US and on dirt for the first time, but she has a dirt pedigree to die for, by Bernardini, out of the Summer Squall mare, Heat Lightning. 

3.  JOYFUL VICTORY (15-1) - 'Nother longshot, but any two-year-old by Tapit is a potential sit-up-and-pay-attention runner.

FILLY AND MARE TURF

Alright, so, everyone on the planet has penciled in MIDDAY to win this thing.  She's the mare from Europe who won it last year, and admittedly, she looks a tough nut to crack.  But let me give you three alternatives:

1.  HARMONIOUS (6-1)  She's only three, and that's a strike against.  It's tough for a three-year-old to win this race.  But it's been done before, and I've seen her work in the mornings at Churchill, and there probably isn't a horse in the Breeders' Cup that looks better moving over the track than her.  She has a gorgeous stride. It doesn't equate to winning a race like this, but she won her last race by almost five lengths, so I wouldn't toss her.

2.  KEERTANA (30-1) - Laugh all you want, but this filly loves Churchill and the distance, and she's trained by Tom Proctor, who's been known to win a BC race at 47-1.  I certainly would play her underneath in any event.

3.  ECLAIR DE LUNE (15-1) - Now, I have you rolling in the aisles.  But her form is sharp, and she's trained by Ron McAnally, a very astute guy. 

The Japanese filly RED DESIRE is getting lots of attention as are Europeans HIBAAYEB and PLUMANIA.  I don't doubt any one of them could win this, but I'll stick with my three.

LADIES' CLASSIC:

This race is filled with exceptional females.  I could make a case for half the field, at least:

1.  LIFE AT TEN (7-2) - I'm a sucker for horses who simply win.  She's only won seven of her last eight starts.  None of them have come at Churchill, which could be an issue, but it's hard to argue her record lately, and she's looked great in the mornings.

2.  BLIND LUCK (9-5) I find it impossible to leave this filly out of the exacta.  She's been in it 8 of the last 10 times.  But as a three-year-old, she's also facing elders for the first time, and that's always tough.  She'll be storming home late, and she will make this race a nail biter, no matter what.

3.  UNRIVALED BELLE (8-1) - She looks fantastic on the track in the mornings, but she's been beaten the last three races by Todd Pletcher's tandem of LIFE AT TEN AND MALIBU PRAYER, so I have hesitation backing her to win.  Still, I like her a lot. 

Besides MALIBU PRAYER, it's hard to ignore HAVRE DE GRACE.  She's battled with BLIND LUCK the last three races right to the wire, winning one of them.  But you can't pick 'em all.

If I've learned anything while playing the Breeders' Cup, it's that you should pick a couple of spots and go for it.  You only need to be right once to take down a nice score.  Good luck!