Tales from the track and elsewhere

One of the things I enjoy most about studying equine business is the stories I get to hear on a daily basis. 

As my first semester in the Equine Business program at the University of Louisville comes to a close, I've been recalling some of the stories I've heard in class, and I thought I'd share a few of them.

Make Rain, Not Love

One of my professors, Timothy Capps, has worked all over the equine industry, from Claiborne Farm to Pimlico Race Track to racing media publications.  His memory is filled with legendary stories.

He told us one about Seattle Slew, who after winning the Triple Crown in 1977, went on to a successful stud career at both Spendthrift and Three Chimneys farms. 

I don't know if you'd call it a fetish or what, but Seattle Slew's handlers learned that this great champion only liked to breed mares when it was raining.  You can see how this might be a problem, since a stallion farm can't possibly make money if it has to wait for rain in order to breed.

It just so happened that the breeding shed at the farm had a tin roof.  So, when Seattle Slew was brought into the shed, his handlers would turn on the sprinkler system and point it at the roof.  Voila - to Seattle Slew's ears, it had started raining, and that meant it was time to get down to business.

A lot of stallions have these mating quirks.  The great stud, Nasrullah, would not mate under any circumstances if Arthur B. Hancock, Jr., the operator of Claiborne Farm at the time, was in the shed.  They tried several ways to sneak him in the barn when Nasrullah wasn't looking, but Nasrullah would sense his presence and back off the mare.

Horses are funny creatures, aren't they?

Face the Broom Handle

Capps tells another story about Nasrullah, who was an ornery sort.  None of the grooms at Claiborne Farm could do their jobs because Nasrullah would attack them when they came into his stall.  One of the fed-up grooms went to Mr. Hancock and said, it's either me or the horse.  One of us has to go.

Obviously, Mr. Hancock wasn't about to send Nasrullah packing, so the groom told him, okay, let me try something, but I can't tell you what it is.  You just have to trust me.  Nervously, Mr. Hancock agreed, telling the groom not to injure his stallion.  The groom said he would cause no "permanent damage."

So, when the groom went into the stall the next day, he carried with him a broomstick handle, and when Nasrullah came at him, he whacked him three times on the forehead.  Not gently, mind you.  Nasrullah backed up and let the groom grab the feed bucket.

The next time the groom went in, Nasrullah attacked him again, and he got a whack, whack, whack on the forehead.  Again, Nasrullah backed up.  The third time the groom went in, Nasrullah started coming after him, but all the groom had to do this time was show him the broomstick handle, and that was the end of it.  He never attacked the groom again, and for the remainder of Nasrullah's stud career, that groom was the only one who could successfully go into Nasrullah's stall.

It CAN'T be Mind That Bird

Churchill Downs track announcer Mark Johnson spoke to one of our classes and played us his call of the 2009 Kentucky Derby.  My background as a radio broadcaster led me to notice something interesting about the stretch run of that race.

I told Mark, "I heard you buy yourself some time."  He laughed and told the story of what happened in those two seconds.

During the call, Mark says something about Mine That Bird being "long last" on the backstretch, and he never mentions him again until deep stretch.  As the leaders were hitting their late strides, Johnson says "Towards the inside... picking up now... bursting through... Mine That Bird!"

Mark said he noticed a horse skimming the rail and was trying to figure out who it was.  Mark is a big fan of the cartoon, Tom and Jerry, and he said that moment was just like the Tom and Jerry episodes where the characters would have an angel on one shoulder and a devil on the other, telling them what to do.

The angel was telling Mark, "You know that is Mine That Bird.  You know those are Calvin Borel's silks."  The devil was saying, "Come on, that can't possibly be Mine That Bird!  He was just chasing the ambulance a minute ago!"  This went back and forth in Mark's brain at lightning speed, and his mouth was trying to buy him time to decide.  So he said, "Toward the inside...picking up now... bursting through...", and at last, he decided to go with the angel and shouted "Mine That Bird!"

What makes his call even more impressive is that Tom Durkin, who called the race for NBC, muffed it and didn't pick up Mine That Bird until the wire. 

Apparently, the devil got the best of him.



By the way, Mark invited me up to the announcer's booth for a race call a few weeks ago, and it was scintillating.  He's a tremendous talent, and watching him work was a thrill.

Who is That Ugly Foal?

Another one of our speakers was Shannon White, manager of Fares Farms in Lexington, KY.  Shannon told us the story of a foal that was bred on her farm a few years ago.

As the foal was developing, Shannon formed the opinion that he would never even sniff a racetrack.  He was too awkward-looking with too many conformation flaws.  She said she wouldn't have paid a dime for that foal.  That's his weanling photo on the right.

Well, somebody did buy that foal, and he not only raced, but he broke his maiden with a 101 Beyer Speed figure rating.  He went on to win the Preakness, finish second in the Belmont and win the Breeders' Cup Classic.    

Shannon said it just goes to show you that you can't look at a horse and determine the size of his heart, and she learned a valuable lesson from the experience.

That foal was none other than Curlin, who to this day is prominently displayed on the Fares Farms website.

Legal Matters

In my regulatory law class, we spent the semester pouring over case law involving patrons ejected  from racetracks, trainers violating drug rules, OTB bettors thrown out for screaming, jockeys using "buzzers", a woman slipping on a half-eaten hot dog, a gambler being bitten by a rattlesnake in the parking lot - you name it. 

You couldn't make up the characters in some of these cases, and they illustrate the colorful, always interesting, sometimes disturbing elements in the racing industry.  My professor, Robert Heleringer, has written a book chronicling the entire history of regulatory law cases in racing.  It should be published soon.  His book has essentially been the material for our class.  Highly recommended (and entertaining) reading!

Final Thoughts

This first semester has been incredible.  I went to the Keeneland auction and race meet.  I worked the Breeders' Cup for the Paulick Report and watched the Classic from six floors above the finish line.  I clocked workouts in the mornings at Churchill with workout master, Bruno de Julio.  I met people in every corner of the equine industry from jockeys and trainers to farm managers, equine insurance agents and horse massage therapists.  I made great friends, including fellow student Michael Vesce, whose uncle trained a phenomenal racehorse of the 90's - Formal Gold.

I learned how the tote odds at the track are calculated with takeout included, how a stallion manager determines stud fees, the economics behind auctions, the science of horse reproduction, the origin of the saying "never look a gift horse in the mouth" (you can tell his age by the teeth), and much, much more.

The spring semester should be just as enjoyable.  It will include equine marketing, a course on racing media, commercial law and current issues in the industry among others.  And while this semester culminated with the Breeders' Cup at Churchill, my final semester will end the week of the Kentucky Derby.

What more could a horse nut ask for?

Zenyatta's heart and my head

One of the cardinal rules of handicapping horses is that you should never bet with your heart - well, I bet with my head in the Breeders' Cup Classic, so how did I do?




I wrote earlier this year that Blame and Zenyatta were the best horses in training in the US, bar none.  And clearly, that opinion proved correct Saturday night.  So, I must have made a ton of money on the Classic.

Nope.  I didn't make a cent.  I suppose that requires explanation.

I've been a Blame fan for the past year.  At 5-1, I picked him to win the Clark Handicap Thanksgiving weekend at Churchill last November, and I've been on him every single race since, even as his price dropped to even money most times.  I knew he was a phenomenal horse right from the beginning, something I've never been able to say, being a relative newcomer to the sport.  Conversely, I bet against Zenyatta time and time again early in her career because I was determined to bet with my head, not my heart.

But Zenyatta eventually won me over with her heart and in my head.  And after assessing the Breeders' Cup with purely a handicapper's eye, despite all the naysayers, and as good as I knew Blame to be, I believed with every fiber of my soul that Zenyatta was the best horse in the Classic.  I was sure all that negative stuff about her running on synthetics and not facing males was pure bunk.  She was bigger, faster and stronger than the best male horses in this country.

So when it came to Saturday's Classic, as much as I loved Blame, I loved Zenyatta more.  And with that opinion, I played the Pick Four. 

I started off with the obvious single on Goldikova.  I had played against every favorite in the BC up until then, but I loved Goldikova as much as I loved Zenyatta, and Goldi won like the champion she is.  Off to a good, but obvious start.

In leg two, I was elated when 37-1 Dakota Phone won because that assured that the Pick Four would have some value, and he was on my ticket.  If you're going to play a Pick Four with Goldikova, you'd better get value elsewhere.  In leg three, again, a nice price on my ticket - 8-1 Dangerous Midge - who was originally my pick, but for some reason, I got off of him in my "official" selections.  At least I included him in the Pick Four.

Then, it came down to the Classic.  When I made out my Pick Four ticket, I was flush with cash after doing very well on Friday, so I could've easily made the Classic a two-horse race, as I had been saying all along. 

But I didn't.  I singled Zenyatta.

In hindsight, it seems foolish.  If I believed Blame and Zenyatta were the only two horses that could win the Classic, why would I single Zenyatta?  I've been asking myself that question for the past two days.

I guess it's because I wanted to be all in on the great mare.  I had some sort of instinct to live or die with her.  Even after singling her in the Pick Four, I had the opportunity to bet a nice exacta with Blame over Zenyatta right before the race, and I just couldn't do it.  It was strange.  My mind and my body could not pull the trigger, even though in many, many other circumstances, I have easily done such a thing to "hedge" financially.

I just felt a strong pull that I could not resist to put all my chips on Zenyatta.

It cost me a lot of money.  The exacta was reasonable, and the Pick Four, with Blame winning, paid $3,800 for .50.

Monetarily, that photo finish cost me a bunch of money.

I don't regret my decision.  Well, maybe a little.  As a student in the University of Louisville's Equine Business program, I could certainly have used the money.  But I will never forget watching - from six floors above the finish line at Churchill - the moment when Zenyatta came charging at Blame, after her horrific trip in the Classic.  I lost my breath for what seemed like a year. But those five seconds feel like they were worth $3,800.

Blame proved himself to be the great horse I thought he was, but people who say Zenyatta wasn't the best horse in that race are delusional.  Again, this is coming from a guy who has been touting Blame for more than a year and who doubted Zenyatta for a long time.

Zenyatta broke slow, even by her standards.  She struggled with what one Hall of Fame trainer who I cannot mention called a "shitty" track in a private text message.  She had to check at one point because the horse that so many people were touting - Quality Road - backed out of the race early (he finished last).  And Zenyatta still lost by less than a head, marking her absolute greatness in the history of racing.

After the race, certain people in the press box were saying that they would vote for Zenyatta to win Horse of the Year even though she lost, and I was like, WHAT?  Blame won fair and square.  It's not a lifetime achievement award.  Blame deserves it.  He beat Zenyatta.

But after thinking about it, I have changed my mind and believe with the utmost conviction that Zenyatta absolutely deserves the award.  Yes, Blame won a race against her by a razor-thin margin.  But seriously, if that race is run 10 times, Zenyatta wins 9 of them, even as great as Blame is.  If she gets anything resembling a decent trip, she wins.  And while that is the drawback of being such a deep closer as she is, in a race like the Classic, it deserves consideration.  And so does what she's done for the sport of racing.  In every fashion, she is the horse of the year.

She is horse of the decade.

She might even be horse of a lifetime.

Admitted doubter and Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert said she should win horse of the year, even after he believed the winner of the Classic, if it was one of the top four horses, ought to win HOTY.

As for me, I bet with my head, and my heart agreed.

For the only time in my racing life, both were absolutely right.

Breeders' Cup Championship Saturday Picks

Let's just get right to it. Again, these are picks for most likely winners not a predicted order of finish.

JUVENILE TURF

I'll be honest.  I have no idea in this race, but I'll give a hat tip to my buddy Mike for coming up with a nice choice that makes good sense:

SOLDAT (8-1) - After an impressive three-length graded stakes win over the Saratoga turf in September, in his next graded race, Soldat hit the gate, was bumped in the lane and still finished second.  I like the two graded stakes races.  I like his speed figures.  And I like the fact that he closed into a slow pace in his last after much trouble and still almost won.

BANNED (10-1) - He hasn't faced much competition (but neither had AWESOME FEATHER before her romp yesterday).  Banned has won his last two races with ease, and the Proctor barn is high on him.

PLUCK (6-1) - Could Pletcher and Gomez have the Juv. Fillies Turf and Juvenile Turf double?  More Than Real got the first half.  Pluck has drawn a terrible post position (13 of 13), so he could be a toss-out on that fact alone in a one mile race, but this field is a mystery, so why not?

I have no Europeans in my top three.  They were shut out on day 1, a trend I don't expect to last into day 2.  I don't love any of them in here, but I'd give MANTOBA the best shot if you want to go with a Euro.

SPRINT

GIROLAMO and BIG DRAMA are the favs here, and they both have a legitimate case for winning.  But this race quite often produces a longshot winner.  So let's see if we can find him:


KINSALE KING (8-1) - Two races back, he finished behind top European sprinter Starspangledbanner in a Group 1 at Ascot.  If the Turf Sprint were 6 furlongs instead of 5, KING would be in that race, but he's here, he looks great in the morning and he has a touch of class.

WISE DAN (10-1) - He's only three, facing elders, but gee, he's been impressive so far, winning his last three by almost 20 lengths combined.  His trainer, Charles Lopresti, was on fire at Keeneland, taking 6 of 10 starts.

HAMAZING DESTINY (20-1) - I'm not one to pick D. Wayne Lukas horses very often, but this one seems in sharp form, and he seems to like Churchill.  He's stepping up pretty severely in class, but he'll be a nice price, and he's not without a shot in here.

TURF SPRINT

Shoot me now.  They might as well just pull out the roulette wheel for a turf sprint at five furlongs, but let's give it a whirl.  It's almost impossible to win this race from a wide post, so I'm tossing out posts 10-14:

STRADIVINSKY (10-1) - On paper, he does not have the class to win this race, but races aren't run on paper, and if he gets a good break from the three hole, he could be gone.  At five furlongs, this guy is deadly, and he isn't facing a bunch of monsters in here.
 
ROSE CATHERINE (6-1) - Of the four fillies in this race, she's coming out of the fastest races and has won five of her last six, none of them graded stakes races, however.

SILVER TIMBER (4-1) - If someone's going to come late to win this, it'll probably be him. 

CENTRAL CITY, QUICK ENOUGH, BRIDGETOWN AND UNZIP ME are other potential candidates in here.  This race is why they invented the ALL button.

JUVENILE

This seems to be your classic East Coast vs West Coast vs Godolphin matchup.  UNCLE MO is the favorite, but let's try to beat him:

BOYS AT TOSCANOVA (5/2) - This is a HUGE colt with reams of potential.  He's also the only runner in here with experience over the Churchill track.

JB'S THUNDER (12-1) - He's got a couple of routes underneath him, which is fairly rare in this bunch, and he's trained by Al Stall, Jr, who is excelling at the moment.

BIONDETTI (12-1) - Godolphin has won the last two BC Juveniles, and this entrant, took the same path as last year's winner VALE OF YORK, who also won in Italy before coming to the Breeders' Cup.  I'd sort of lean against a three-peat, but this horse is three-for-three.

THE MILE

For once, we have a race that comes up a little chalky.

GOLDIKOVA (6-5) - I played against heavy favorites Winter Memories and Midday yesterday because I thought they were both vulnerable.  Goldikova is in another league.  She has won the most Group 1 races in European history.  I doubt that she'll be beaten, but there a couple of others with a shot in here.

GIO PONTI (4-1) - He's in top form, and he's all class.  He will be in the money.

PROVISO (12-1) - She's won four in a row, mostly against females, but she's got a nasty late kick.  The wide post doesn't help her case, but she could figure in this.

PACO BOY has been Goldikova's whipping boy in Europe, losing three races to her by two necks and half a length, so he's hard to toss, but he doesn't win often enough for me.  SYDNEY'S CANDY is an interesting item, who will try to take them gate to wire, but GET STORMY will be pestering him, and the closers seem to have an edge in here.

DIRT MILE

HERE COMES BEN (6-1) - The progeny of Street Cry seem to like Churchill.  BEN has won four in a row, all at seven furlongs, two of them at Churchill.  He should love the extra furlong as he will be charging home late. His trainer is hot.

TIZWAY (6-1) - This dude has faced some serious competition (namely Quality Road, who would be the heavy favorite in here).  And he's stood up well.  Won his last by five lengths.  HERE COMES BEN may have to come get him.

MORNING LINE (7-2) - He's only three but boy was he game in that Pennsyvlania Derby win.  He ripped through some solid fractions, lost the lead and came back at 'em to win.  Cuts back in distance, but how much did that race take out of him?

TURF

The scratch of the favorite Workforce doesn't change much for me.  I was playing against him anyway.  I'm sure a lot of his money will switch to Bekhabad, so I'll try to beat him too:

AL KHALI (10-1) This kid showed a wicked turn of foot in his last race while changing from his usual frontrunning tactics to take back early and make a late run.  He gets the services of jockey Julien Leparoux, who is deadly on the turf.

DEBUSSY (10-1) - He beat Gio Ponti in the Arlington Million in August.  Gio Ponti would likely be the favorite in this race.  DEBUSSY has also run well against the likes of TWICE OVER (3rd in last year's Classic).  He rates a chance to take this field gate to wire at the 1 1/2 mile distance.

WINCHESTER (8-1) - This trainee of turf master Christophe Clement beat 3-year-old turf star Paddy O'Prado in his last race and lost a neck to Al Khali prior to that.  He'll be coming late and maybe taking this thing down.

THE CLASSIC

It's finally here, the race we've all been waiting for.  Drumroll please...

ZENYATTA (8-5) - This is not just a sentimental pick.  I want her to win, yes, but from a handicapping standpoint, what's not to like?  Yes, she's only beaten the boys once, in last year's Classic, but she's bigger than they are, she has a longer stride than they do, AND the pace of this race ought to set things up perfectly for her late charge.  Haynesfield, First Dude, Etched and Quality Road will all have designs on the lead.  Queen Z will love the long Churchill Downs stretch and as long as Mike Smith gets her in position early enough, she is going to make history.

BLAME (9-2) - Not very creative, I know, but it's hard to argue with this guy's performance in 2010.  He will probably get first jump on the leaders and Zenyatta might have to run him down. He is game and well-trained.  The most likely upsetter.

HAYNESFIELD (12-1) - This runner scares me a bit.  He looks unbelievable right now, and if somehow, he's able to dictate a slower pace than appears on paper, he could be mighty tough to catch.  He'll probably have too much company on the front end, but he's a threat.

I believe QUALITY ROAD, as good as he is, will have a tough time because he will have to jet out of the gate from the one post.  LOOKIN AT LUCKY certainly rates a chance, but he's drawn far outside and has only faced three-year-olds.  A must use underneath is MUSKET MAN.  This dude has NEVER finished out of the money, and he's faced some of these before.  FLY DOWN will be coming late for a piece of the action as well.

Best of luck to you today.  I hope you can enjoy every minute of his historic day.  I know I will.

Breeders' Cup Day 1 Diary

A strange and wonderful opening day for the Breeders' Cup, which went something like this for me:

1:30 PM - Arrive at my University of Louisville parking lot.  Walk to Churchill in brisk wind - real feel temperature = 46 degrees. 

2:00 PM - Arrive at press box, survey the beautiful surroundings from 6 floors above the track:




4:00 PM - The Marathon, the most boring race in the BC (or so I thought) goes off.

4:03 PM (or 7 years to a dog later) - Eldaafer streaks to the wire in front of Prince Will I Am.  I later learn that Eldaafer's trainer has been developing his "slow-twitch" muscle fibers to improve endurance, a nice piece of intel I would've preferred to have had at 3:55 pm.  At least I included him on my pick 3 ticket, which is still alive.

4:05 PM - Someone yells FIGHT! in the press box.  I thought two reporters were pummeling each other or something.  We all scurry to the terrace to discover that below us, Calvin Borel is attacking his fellow jockey, Javier Castellano for cutting him off during the race.  Borel gave new meaning to Ragin' Cajun.  Hey, world, this a passionate sport!  But is there a boxing division below featherweight?



4:10 PM - Official results posted.  Prince Will I Am disqualified, meaning my pick, Gabriel's Hill at 25-1 finishes second.  I only bet him to win.  I mentally pull a Borel on myself.

4:20 PM - As I'm writing up the recap on the Marathon for The Paulick Report and looking up boxing terms, I quickly glance over my picks for the Juvenile Fillies Turf and realize that I had picked New Normal based on his last race at Woodbine (which I loved) and the fact that the Churchill turf had been playing to speed.  But now, I'm fairly certain it's not playing that way anymore.  I still love the race he came out of, so I switch my pick to More Than Real, who closed from the back and finished second in that race.  He's 13-1.  I'm definitely against Winter Memories because well, everyone else seems to think she's a lock.

4:53 PM - Nice call, dude.  More Than Real storms home ahead of Winter Memories, keying a decent trifecta, since I liked Kathmanblu also, and she finished third.  My pick 3 hits and pays $230 for .50.  Since my previous BC betting has been an unmitigated disaster, I take a moment to appreciate me learning something - always be willing to adapt.

5:40 PM - After having tossed 8-1 Dubai Majesty onto my Pick 4 ticket at the last second, I'm relieved when she wins impressively in the Filly and Mare Sprint.

6:15 PM - My pick in the Juvenile Fillies, Awesome Feather, wins at 4-1.  Unfortunately, I didn't do enough with it (I do have to work, you know), so I'm a little disappointed to have the winner and not much to show for it.  At least I'm still alive in the Pick 4.

6:55 PM - I am now dead in the Pick 4.  45-1 Shared Account stuns the press box by beating heavy favorite Midday in the Filly and Mare Turf.  Oh well.

7:25 PM - I hear rumblings that my pick, Life at Ten, is not looking well for the Ladies' Classic.  I don't like last minute rumblings.  I adapt once again and go with my second choices, Unrivaled Belle and Blind Luck, focusing on Unrivaled Belle on top because she's 7-1 and Blind Luck is the 9-5 favorite.

7:30 PM - Oh, what a night!  Unrivaled Belle holds off Blind Luck keying a nice score to round out the day.  It was my best BC day ever, although my joy was tarnished by the incident with Life at Ten.  Based on the information available, the stewards should've held up the start of the race to look into what was being broadcast on ESPN about Life At Ten.  Thankfully, nothing bad happened, but it was unsettling that she was allowed to race.  It all happened so fast - there's probably plenty of regret about it this morning between the track and her connections. Maybe a lesson learned.

I'm sure the racing gods will punish me Saturday for having a good day on Friday but the glow from the Twin Spires and the excitement of Zenyatta's historic run will more than make up for it.

It's almost post time!

Just a few minutes now before the first race of the 2010 Breeders' Cup.  Churchill Downs looks fantastic, especially from way up here in the press box:

Breeders' Cup Picks, Day 1

The Breeders' Cup is following me around, and I like it.  The past two years the BC has been held at Santa Anita, near Los Angeles, where I lived, so I didn't have to travel very far to attend.

A few months ago, I moved to Louisville, and voila, another Breeders' Cup is in my backyard.  Okay, so maybe I'm following the BC instead of the other way around, but eh, details.

Since I'm covering the BC for The Paulick Report, I'll be in the Churchill Downs press box for most of the next two days.  That's not only a great view from the sixth floor, but they have heat up there.  The high today is 46!

Anyway, these picks are my educated guesses at the horses most likely to win, not a predicted order of finish.  As any serious handicapper knows, there's a huge difference.

MARATHON:

If there's any race in the sequence that perhaps would be better handicapped by throwing darts at a board, it's this one.  A mile and 3/4 on the dirt?  Maybe nowhere else in the world will you find such a long race on dirt.  I heard they might use a sun dial to time it.

1. BRIGHT HORIZON (10-1) - Believe it or not, this horse is running a shorter race than he did last time.  He's shipping in from Ireland, where he won a two-mile race on the turf in September.  Big question mark on dirt, but he's the son of one of the world's great sires in Galileo and that's good enough for me. He clearly has the foundation for a race like this.

2.  ALCOMO (6-1) - You might think speedier horses have a disadvantage going this far, but quite the opposite.  The farther they go, the more speed has an advantage if the horse can dictate the pace. There isn't much speed in here, so ALCOMO might inherit the lead.  Rafael Bejarano is riding, and he's simply been fantastic.

3.  GABRIEL'S HILL (20-1) - Bombs away!  Might as well shoot for a price in this race.  If Alcomo doesn't take the lead, GH might.  GH has been working lights out at Churchill and looking fabulous. 

One of these days, GIANT OAK is going to win a race.  He's been right there the last two, but he can't... seem...to...get... there.  Not sure he gets enough pace to run at here. But maybe the extra distance gives him a shot.  AWESOME GEM is the classy favorite, but I'll try to beat him.

JUVENILE FILLIES TURF:

Boy, this is a tough race, but here's a crack at it:

1.  NEW NORMAL  (10-1) - The Churchill turf course tends to play to speed, and in this bunch, I believe she's the fastest.  WYOMIA might get that label, but NEW NORMAL comes out of the fastest turf race in the group, and she could go gate to wire.

2.  KATHMANBLU (10-1) - Everyone seems to think WINTER MEMORIES (2-1) is a lock, but her last race was no faster than a lot of the fillies in here.  KATHMANBLU's 1 1/16 mile races have been just as fast.  I'll take her over WM as the deep closer.

3.  TALE UNTOLD (15-1) -It's hard to ignore the Europeans on the grass, and this one beat TOGETHER (5-1) last out going 7 furlongs at Newmarket in Britain.  Looked like she was crying out for further, and she gets another furlong today.

FILLY AND MARE SPRINT

Again, close your eyes and find a nice sharp object to throw at a cork board.  By the way, it's not because, in general, racing is a crapshoot.  It's only because these races are filled with the best of the best, and it's tough to separate them in many cases.  That's why the BC is so awesome.

RIGHTLY SO seems a deserving favorite.  In her last 10 races, she's had the lead at nearly every point of call, and she's won seven of them.  But this race seems more complex than that:

1. EVENING JEWEL (15-1) - That's right, the filly that's won half of her last dozen races and been in the money every single one of them is 15-1.  She rarely wins by more than a nose hair, but neither does Zenyatta.

2.  GABBY'S GOLDEN GAL (15-1) - She hasn't raced since January, so that should be a strike against her.  But trainer Bob Baffert is known for being sneaky good with this kind.  Think MIDNIGHT LUTE (long layoff winner in the BC Sprint TWICE).

3.  SECRET GYPSY (12-1) - She's a longshot, but she's won her last three races by at least a length, albeit against lesser competition.  Her speed figures t'ain't bad.

The near-favorite INFORMED DECISION is only five years old, but she seems like a grandmother as much as she's been on the scene.  Still, never count her out of a big-time sprint.

JUVENILE FILLIES

1. AWESOME FEATHER (6-1) - Maybe you're sensing a theme.  Anyone can give you AZ WARRIOR.  She's the favorite, and maybe she'll win.  But in a race for barely-formed two-year-old girls, I have to look elsewhere.  Although she's been racing at Calder against who-knows-what, AWESOME FEATHER has beaten her competition by a combined 17 lengths in her last three starts.

2. THEYSKENS' THEORY (10-1) - The filly named after a New York fashion label is racing in the US and on dirt for the first time, but she has a dirt pedigree to die for, by Bernardini, out of the Summer Squall mare, Heat Lightning. 

3.  JOYFUL VICTORY (15-1) - 'Nother longshot, but any two-year-old by Tapit is a potential sit-up-and-pay-attention runner.

FILLY AND MARE TURF

Alright, so, everyone on the planet has penciled in MIDDAY to win this thing.  She's the mare from Europe who won it last year, and admittedly, she looks a tough nut to crack.  But let me give you three alternatives:

1.  HARMONIOUS (6-1)  She's only three, and that's a strike against.  It's tough for a three-year-old to win this race.  But it's been done before, and I've seen her work in the mornings at Churchill, and there probably isn't a horse in the Breeders' Cup that looks better moving over the track than her.  She has a gorgeous stride. It doesn't equate to winning a race like this, but she won her last race by almost five lengths, so I wouldn't toss her.

2.  KEERTANA (30-1) - Laugh all you want, but this filly loves Churchill and the distance, and she's trained by Tom Proctor, who's been known to win a BC race at 47-1.  I certainly would play her underneath in any event.

3.  ECLAIR DE LUNE (15-1) - Now, I have you rolling in the aisles.  But her form is sharp, and she's trained by Ron McAnally, a very astute guy. 

The Japanese filly RED DESIRE is getting lots of attention as are Europeans HIBAAYEB and PLUMANIA.  I don't doubt any one of them could win this, but I'll stick with my three.

LADIES' CLASSIC:

This race is filled with exceptional females.  I could make a case for half the field, at least:

1.  LIFE AT TEN (7-2) - I'm a sucker for horses who simply win.  She's only won seven of her last eight starts.  None of them have come at Churchill, which could be an issue, but it's hard to argue her record lately, and she's looked great in the mornings.

2.  BLIND LUCK (9-5) I find it impossible to leave this filly out of the exacta.  She's been in it 8 of the last 10 times.  But as a three-year-old, she's also facing elders for the first time, and that's always tough.  She'll be storming home late, and she will make this race a nail biter, no matter what.

3.  UNRIVALED BELLE (8-1) - She looks fantastic on the track in the mornings, but she's been beaten the last three races by Todd Pletcher's tandem of LIFE AT TEN AND MALIBU PRAYER, so I have hesitation backing her to win.  Still, I like her a lot. 

Besides MALIBU PRAYER, it's hard to ignore HAVRE DE GRACE.  She's battled with BLIND LUCK the last three races right to the wire, winning one of them.  But you can't pick 'em all.

If I've learned anything while playing the Breeders' Cup, it's that you should pick a couple of spots and go for it.  You only need to be right once to take down a nice score.  Good luck!

Zenyatta goes back in time, beats all-time greats

The debate over whether Zenyatta is the greatest horse ever will, frankly, never be settled.  If she wins the Breeders' Cup Classic, it's hard to argue against her, but people will.  She can't race against the greats of the past.

Or can she?

The NTRA has produced a race simulation pitting Zenyatta against some of the great horses in racing history - Citation, Affirmed, Rachel Alexandra and others.

You can watch the virtual race below.  Secretariat is notably absent.  I assume he was a late scratch OR the result was specifically designed as a Zenyatta promotion.  Decide for yourself.  I'm as big a Z fan as there is, and she has won every race when certain other greats lost races (sometimes more than one), but this may border on suspicious.

No matter.  It's just kind of fun to watch:

So You Think you know racing

Can you imagine a World Series pitcher coming back on two days rest?  Or an NFL team playing a game the Thursday before the Super Bowl?  Or the Kentucky Derby winner racing the Wednesday before the first Saturday in May?

Well, the probable favorite for the Melbourne Cup just won a race today, and he's running in Australia's biggest race on Tuesday.

So You Think won a top level stakes, the Group 1 Mackinnon on Saturday at 2,000 meters (1.2 miles), and he'll run in the $6 million Melbourne Cup at 3,200 meters on Tuesday.

So You Think has won 8 of 11 career starts, so he's clearly a superhorse.  But he gives new meaning to superhorse if he pulls off a win after only two days rest against a field of 18 other top horses. 

I suppose it's a cultural thing.  It used to be in this country that horses ran a lot more often.  Not that long ago, people wouldn't bat an eye at a horse running back in a week.  Today in the US, at least at the highest levels of competition, a minimum of three weeks is usually required and sometimes quite a bit more. 

So when I read that So You Think raced today, I was like, WHAT?  I thought it was a mistake, a misprint, an April Fools joke, since it's Spring in Australia.

But no, it's just a finely-tuned beast on top of his game, and connections that have no fear. 

I love it.

Of course, the welfare of the horse is always the top priority, but owners and trainers in this country are far too conservative about what their athletes can do.  Exhibit A:  The controversy over Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta.  Rachel retires after a fantastic work.  Zenyatta's connections are accused of "dodging" certain competition.

I have nothing but the utmost respect for Zenyatta and her handlers.  She has stayed sound and healthy and has won every race in her career.  What more is there? 

But there's a different kind of respect for teams that aggressively place their horses and trust their athletic ability.  Yes, Thoroughbreds are fragile, but they have also proven to be amazingly resilient.  If you have horse, let him (or her) run.

And if you have a horse that likes win, by all means put them on the track every chance you get.

So I Think.

When you know, you know

There are so few times in horse racing that you genuinely know what's about to happen, that it is absolutely essential that you take advantage when you do know.

Case in point -- Sunday's 6th race at Keeneland.  I was privy to a conversation on the backside at Churchill Downs that involved one of the horses in that race.  I was told that Dancinginherdreams, trained by John Ward, was an extremely fast two-year-old filly making her first-ever start.  The sense I got from the conversation was that this filly was ready to win first out and then some. 

Well, she did -- in spectacular fashion.  Dancinginherdreams checked badly on the backstretch, closed from last in a field of 12, circled widest of all for the entire race and still won easily by open lengths, under a hand ride by Julien Leparoux.  I dare you to find a better maiden victory first-time-out than that.

Yeah, I made a few sheckles on the deal, but since I'm not one to bet first-time starters very often, I didn't clean up like I should have. 

Part of the problem was that, obviously, the word got out within the racing circle, that this filly was something special.  She was bet down from 10-1 morning line to 3-2 at post time.

But I've seen plenty of high morning lines get bet down to low odds and finish up the track.

The difference, in this case, was that I knew she was something special.  It's not like I was watching TVG and heard someone make a random comment.  I had actual first-hand knowledge about this filly.

I guess since I've chosen to immerse myself in racing as a new career, I should start taking this information a bit more seriously.  Had I considered this situation a stone-cold lock, I would've done a lot better.

Of course, nothing is a stone-cold lock in this sport, but if you can get close to it, opportunity goes begging if you don't pounce.

There was another case last week of a colt I had seen work out at Churchill, and I knew because of the race he was entering, he should win easily.  Again, because of my background as a racing fan but not an "insider," I went light in my betting.  He won by eight lengths with the greatest of ease at 5-2, a ridiculous price in hindsight. 

While it may seem frustrating, it's also encouraging that I'm two-for-two with something resembling inside information.

I suppose the point is that if you genuinely know something, you know it.  You don't even have to have inside info.  You just have to have a logical explanation, based on valid evidence.  Even before I arrived here, there were plenty of cases where I had no inside information but had picked up on something legitimate and it proved to be correct, after putting in the work to figure it out.  An example is the turf course bias at Gulfstream over the winter, which I'll be happy to explain if you're interested.

Conversely, if you think you know something but in your mind, you actually know you're just guessing, the gods will sort you out and punish you with a vengeance.  I have met the devil at the crossroads many times by hoping shortcuts will work.

They never do.

Figuring out the difference is the key to being successful in this game.

As for Dancinginherdreams, she should absolutely run in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies if at all possible.  Her maiden win was so impressive, I won't be the least surprised if she wins the thing.

But now, everyone else knows exactly what I know.

A horse lover's dream day

What could be better than opening day at Keeneland, with a dash of World Equestrian Games and a sprinkling of morning workouts with the Kentucky Derby winning jockey?

Such was my Friday:

6:00 a.m.  Pick up my buddy from the Equine Business program at the University of Louisville.

6:15 a.m.  Arrive on the backside at Churchill Downs and visit with the trainer my friend is working for. 

6:25 a.m.  Shake hands with jockey Calvin Borel, winner of the last two Kentucky Derbies.  He's working one of the trainer's horses.  Conversation:

"Hi, Calvin, nice to meet you.
"Good to meet you, Scott.  Whew, whee, we almost didn't make it!  There was a plane landed on the freeway!
"Oh yeah, I heard about that."
"Yeah, we were driving in and I look over and there's a plane!  Man, I said, there's a plane on the freeway!  Can you believe that?  A plane on the freeway!  I was like, whaaaat? 
"Oh yeah?"
"Yeah, whew-whee, boy, I wasn't sure we were going to make it on time!  Geeeee!"

The point being, Calvin is exactly the person you see on television.  It was 6:30 in the morning, and he was jacked up 100% Cajun.  What a character.

6:35 a.m.  5 furlong workout complete - very nice three-year-old, going easy, wrapped up by Calvin, lots in the tank.

7:15 a.m.  Breakfast at a hard-core diner.  Friendliest waitress in the world.

8:15 a.m.  Pick up Daily Racing Form for Keeneland at the pharmacy across from Churchill Downs.  Head to Lexington.

10:00 a.m.  Arrive at Kentucky Horse Park for the World Equestrian Games.

10:30 a.m.  Watch acrobats perform "vaulting" on the back of a draft horse.  See photo above.

10:45 a.m.  Sit in the stands for a game of "Horse-Ball," which is best described as basketball on horseback.  In fact, it is exactly like basketball on horseback.  I saw a female rider "box out" a male rider with elbows and then swish one in the basket! 

These riders have incredible balance and agility.  See what happens when the "Sputnik"-looking ball almost hits the ground:

11:00 a.m.  Watch Standardbreds, Hackneys and Irish Connemara ponies perform.  All of these horses are gorgeous in their own way.

There are few things more beautiful than a horse in full flight:

11:30 a.m. Catch shuttle to our parking space 2 miles from the Games (which cost $20).  Ouch.

12:30 p.m.  Arrive at Keeneland race course, where the parking is free and the racing always fantastic.

Keeneland is special because the racing facilities are stunning, probably the nicest in the country.  The backdrop isn't as breathtaking as Santa Anita's mountains (here, it's just horse pastures for miles), but I daresay the paddock is the most gorgeous you'll find just about anywhere:

That's Michelle Yu from TVG there on the right of the bottom photo.  We also chatted with long-time TV handicapper Hank Goldberg for a bit. 

4:15 p.m.  Paracaidas wins a one-mile turf allowance with ease, Garrett Gomez on board:

5:20 p.m. Wickedly Perfect takes the Grade 1, Alcibiades Stakes for two-year-old fillies in impressive fashion, completing a nice double for my buddy.  He was all over Wise Dan upsetting Hollywood Hit in the previous race.  I thought Hollywood Hit was a cinch.  I made up for it by hitting a $55 exacta earlier in the card. 

No matter.  I could've lost all day, and it still would've ranked as one of my favorite days of all time.

8 p.m.  Arrive back home in Louisville, delightfully exhausted.

More of this please...

The stars are aligning for this year's Breeders' Cup - hopefully the people running the show realize the golden opportunity in front of them, between the movie, Secretariat, and the real-life racing star who is doing a mighty good impression of Big Red.

From the video below, it appears that perhaps they do.  The promo popped up on YouTube last night after Zenyatta's thrilling victory in the Lady's Secret stakes, her 19th win in a row.  The final race of her career will be one of the biggest races in the world, the Breeders' Cup Classic November 6th at Churchill Downs, where she will try to end her career a perfect 20 for 20. 

Astonishing.

If you missed the Lady's Secret, that's posted below as well.  When I bet on a race, I always get a little adrenaline rush as the horses approach the wire, maybe a few fast beats of the heart, if my horse is involved.

I didn't have a dime on Zenyatta's race, and my heart was pounding out of my chest right before she hit the line in her usual oh-my-god-I-don't-think-she's-going-make-it-this-time!!! fashion.

She's in a class all by herself as a champion racehorse.

I love her. I will miss her. I have run out of words to describe her.  Let's just roll the videos:

Keeneland Sales Update

Earlier this week, I suggested a different way to look at the Keeneland yearling sales numbers.  This is a follow-up to that post.

My equine finance professor at the University of Louisville, along with a fellow student, compared the sales results from 2009 to 2010 by using the percentage of horses offered instead of comparing day 1 to day 1, day 2 to day 2, etc as most people have been doing.  Since Keeneland changed its format this year, the percentage method makes more sense.  Here's an update on how the sale is progressing:

Update on Keeneland Sale Averages from Kate Ellis and Robert Losey

Scott Jagow was kind enough to let us use his blog as a sounding board on Sept. 21, where we argued that the cumulative averages for the September Keeneland Sale were overestimating what is really happening.  We also predicted that the cumulative averages reported in the media would appear to drop substantially each day because of the unrealistic comparisons that result when session by session comparisons are made instead of comparing similar segments by percentage completion of the sales.   We expect that when the sale is completed, the cumulative average (both ours and the reported in the media) will be up by 1-3%.  If we’re right, this suggests two things: 1) the market may have bottomed out and is hopefully starting to turn up (we predict an increase in the November Sale averages because of diminished supply effects), and 2) there is a better way to compare sales from one year to the next than what the media has been reporting.

The first two columns below report our calculations for the sale.  In the last column we provide the  media calculation of the cumulative average as reported for days 9-11.

                Sale Change       Ellis/Losey           Media

                From Comp       Calculation          Calculation

                In 2009              of Cumulative    of Cumulative

Day                                    Change                Change

1              +49%                     +49%

2              +44%                     +46%

3              -41%                      -6%

4              - 7%                       -6%

5              +18%                     -2%

6              +39%                     +3%

7              +2%                       +2%

8              +29                        +4%

9              -27%                      +2%                   +24.3%

10            +1%                       +2%                   +12.3%

11           -10%                       +2%                   + 9.9%

Note that the first two sessions appear to be anomalies, and they are.  This is the first time that Keeneland has used night sessions for days 1 and 2, and the “super select” nature of the first two sessions resulted in a skyrocketing average for those sessions.  The third session drastic drop off is also predictable.  Keeneland attempted to equalize the quality of yearlings for sessions 3 through 7 this year, while in 2009 session 3 was probably the third best group of yearlings.  Thus the comparisons of sessions 3 and 4 this year suffered, while the comparisons of session s 5 and 6 this year were favorable relative to similar segments last year.

An ode to Presious Passion

Most racehorses only shine for a short period of time.  That's just the way it is in racing.  Better enjoy it while it lasts.

Presious Passion is one of those horses that sparkled brilliantly, and now, may only leave memories in his wake.

Less than a year ago, Presious Passion nearly beat one of the best turf horses in the world in one of the biggest turf races in the world.  The Breeders' Cup Turf is a $3 million, Grade 1 race of the highest order.  At long odds, Presious Passion lost by half a length.  He ran his guts out, as he always does.

But today, 10 months later, he ran in a $65,000 N2Y optional claiming race on a Wednesday afternoon at Delaware Park.  He finished a well-beaten fourth.

At first, I was simply sad.  Sad that this once bright star was clearly fading.  But that is hardly the way to remember Presious Passion.

Those who follow racing closely know Passion well.  He is the Steve Prefontaine of the thoroughbred world.  Prefontaine was a brilliant long-distance runner whose own star faded way too soon (he was killed in a car crash).  Prefontaine was renowned for his theory that running a race was a work of art.  He believed the only way to run long distances was to go flat out as fast as you can until you have nothing left.  To him, winning any other way -- like drafting on his opponents -- was chickenshit.

Pre would've loved Presious Passion.  Look at him in the Grade 1 United Nations, opening up 20 lengths in the first half of the race.  That's him waaaaay out in front.  You see that time, 45.1, in the upper corner?  That would be a scorching time in a race threefold shorter than this!  99% of racehorses could never survive that pace.

Presious Passion won.  He won quite often this way, screaming to the lead in a fashion that would be a suicide mission for most horses.

Like Pre, Presious Passion only knew one way to go -- flat out, in front, until he had nothing left.

In another race, Presious Passion opened up a huge lead and then was passed in the stretch, seemingly done.  But he fought back, and just feet from the wire, he rallied past what looked to be the winner.  That rarely happens in racing.  Once a horse is passed in the stretch, he's usually finished.  Presious Passion simply would not quit.  It was an amazing moment.

Today, in a much lesser race, I saw a spark of the old Presious Passion.  He was passed in the stretch, and once again, he tried to re-rally .  If you paid attention, you could see his will to win.  He was clearly saying, I am still all heart.  His body just wouldn't cooperate.

All of this sounds like an obituary for Presious Passion's career.  Perhaps the race he ran today was too short.  He seems to excel at distances beyond today's 1 1/16 miles.  Maybe he'll re-rally again.  But more likely, at age 7, Passion's extraordinary days are behind him. 

I, for one, am glad to have witnessed his greatness.  Here's a toast to Pre-sious Passion:

A horse of a different statistical color

There's been a lot of talk about the sales numbers coming out of the Keeneland yearling sale.  We've heard double-digit percentage gains thrown about by the media and Keeneland itself.

It's heartening to hear these numbers, since we all want to see the racing industry bounce back from the recent crushing economic blows.  But are the numbers accurate?

It's fair to question them since Keeneland changed its sales format this year but hasn't changed its method of comparison -- that is, for example, comparing Day 1, 2009 to Day 1, 2010.  If there are fewer horses being offered the first two days of the sale this year, it seems there should be an adjustment in the way the two years are compared.

We've been talking about this quite a bit in my equine finance course at the University of Louisville, and our professor has come up with an alternative method.  He's comparing the sales in terms of percentage of horses catalogued.  It makes sense.

I can't say with 100% certainty that his method is without flaw or that the numbers are 100% accurate (although I'm confident that they are), but it gives us a different way to measure the Keeneland sale in any case.  It's important to look at these things with a healthy dose of realism, even though we might want to see eye-popping numbers.   So, without further adieu, here's professor Robert Losey's explanation:

Keeneland September Sales Results: Are They Really Up That Much?

Making sense of what is happening to prices at the Keeneland September sale is especially difficult in 2010.   There have always been problems in comparing one year to the next:  One complication relates to the length of sales.  In 2008 Keeneland September had 15 sale sessions: In September 2009 it had only 14.  Reports we have seen compared the first day 2009 to the first day 2008 and continued the comparison out until they compared the 14^th (which was the final) day 2009 to the 14^th day 2008.  This left the 15^th (final) day 2008 in a state of limbo where it was not compared to anything.  More reasonably, it would have made sense to compare the two final days (14^th day 2009 and 15^th day 2008) to each other, as each had similar quality horses.  

This year, comparisons have become much more difficult because of Keeneland’s new format.  Should the 105 horses from day 1 2010 be compared to the 207 horses offered on day 1 last year?  Should day 6 this year, which is still part of the select portion of the sale, be compared to last year’s non-select day 6, or to day 4 in 2009, the final select day last year?  

Kate Ellis, an equine certificate student in the Equine Industry Program at the University of Louisville, working with Robert Losey, Professor of Equine Management, has devised a statistical “fix” that makes comparisons of sale averages from one year to the next more logical.  Rather than report day by day comparisons, the Ellis approach compares the day 1 sales this year (which made up the first 2.16% of the total yearlings offered) to the sales average for the first 2.16% of horses from last year’s sale.  Subsequent comparisons follow similar lines, always comparing horses offered in comparable percentage segments of each year’s sale.  This approach has the salutary effect that it is more likely to compare horses of similar quality:  Early-sale horses are compared, mid-sale horses are compared, and end-of-sale horses are compared.

Because of the change in the format for the 2010 sale, which featured very small first and second-day “super-select” yearlings, our method, though an improvement over what is typically being reported, still provides an apples-to-cranapples comparison on a day-by-day basis for the first six sessions for 2010.  However, with the completion of the sixth session of Keeneland on Friday, our method provides an apples-to-apples comparison for the cumulative average starting with day 6 and for each subsequent session.  Going forward our method also provides a useful basis for comparing each 2010 sale day to a comparable segment of last year’s sale.  

Compare our method to reports from other sources.  For the second Monday (Sept. 20, 2010), other sources compared this session, which was the eighth session, but the second non-select session in 2010, to the eighth session 2009, which was the fourth non-select session in 2009.  Not surprisingly, because Keeneland tries to place yearlings with the highest values early in a sale, the 2010 eighth session, which was substantially earlier in the sale relative to the 2009 eighth session based on the fraction of horses offered, generated much higher sales prices.

The eighth session in 2010 offered yearlings that fell into the range between the first 24.4% of horses offered and those following the first 31.2%.
 
Results from the first six segment-to-segment comparisons (based on percentage completion of each sale) are not surprising.  The two night “super-select” 2010 sessions outdid comparisons to last year.  The four-day select sessions that followed the night sessions started off looking weak, but only because this year’s sessions 3-6 represented similar quality horses, while last year’s sessions started with the higher quality yearlings and proceeded down the quality ladder each day.  Comparisons of 2010 (Sunday) session 7 with yearlings from comparable segments of the 2009 sale showed a slight gain.  Our reported gain of 2.4% compares to the reported gain of “almost 50%” generally reported by other sources for session 7. 

Comparisons of the cumulative averages using our methodology yield a similar story.  Most media outlets reported that the cumulative average was up approximately 18% through Sunday.  Using our approach we calculate an increase of 4.1% through that session.  We have extrapolated what the reports from the media are likely to look like for ensuing days.  Using the session-to-session comparisons reported in most of the media, the reported cumulative averages will continue to overestimate the cumulative average each day, but by a lesser amount each day.  If the favorable numbers we see for the eighth session continue, the final cumulative average will be up, but by single digits, probably closer to 5% than to 10%, and not by the double digit numbers that current media reports might seem to indicate.

Though we would have preferred to have seen double-digit increases, we would view a 5% increase as indicative that the market has bottomed.  We would expect that the November sale, which will sell mares from a significantly smaller supply of mares that were bred in 2010, will show increased average prices over 2009.

At the Keeneland sale

I thought I'd share my experience at the Keeneland auction this week, as I got to go behind the scenes.
Most of my experiences in racing so far have revolved around the track.  But these sales are where the race horses of tomorrow are bought and sold, and it definitely gave me a different perspective on the world of racing.

A lot of the big-name trainers were there, looking for that next Kentucky Derby horse.  Nick Zito, Bob Baffert.  I was standing near Baffert as he inspected hip # 1368, a yearling sired by Ghostzapper, a phenomenal runner in his day.  These one-year-olds haven't been named yet, so they're just a number at the sale.  In this case, a number with a pretty nice pedigree -- a Ghostzapper colt out of a Skip Trial mare.

A fellow student in the equine business program at the University of Louisville tapped me on the shoulder and asked, "How much you think that horse will go for?"  I had no idea, and in fact, I've learned that even the most astute observers sometimes have no idea.  But I figured if Baffert was looking at him, I probably couldn't mortgage every house I've ever owned and still be in the bidding.  We followed hip #1368 into the auction ring.  Baffert did not come with him.

A few minutes later, the announcer described hip #1368, and the strapping colt strode into the sales arena.  No one in the audience said anything, but I'm pretty sure there were internal "ooohs and aaahhs."

"Hey-diggity-digg-diggity-digg-diggity-digg-10-hey-diggity-digg-diggity-digg-20."

That's the only way I know how to describe the auctioneer's call.  For six hours a day, that's all you hear all over the Keeneland grounds.

"Hey-diggity-digg-diggity-digg-30-hey-diggity-digg-diggity-diggity-digg-40.  Or better yet, listen for yourself:






While the speaking in tongues continued, in the audience, everyone was stone-faced.  It was nearly impossible to know who was bidding and making the diggity-diggs become actual numbers.  After a few sales, I started to spot the bidders -- people wearing baseball caps who were giving signs like catchers to their pitchers.  A little swipe of the nose here, a two fingered-salute there, and yes, the price just went up!

A couple seats away from me was a man in a baseball cap on a cell phone.  I had seen him talking to Baffert earlier.  I listened intently as the guy repeated the bidding prices into the phone.  I assumed Baffert was on the other end, and he definitely seemed in the game for hip # 1368.

The bid spotter kept looking at the guy and giving him hand signals, asking without asking, "you in for $250,000?  $300,000?  The guy in the baseball cap ever-so-slightly nodded as the price went up and up and up.  And finally, after a couple minutes of this, the diggity-diggs ended with the words:  "SOLD, for $500,000!"

That's life at the world's premiere yearling auction.  Two minutes, $500,000. 

We spent some time in the repository, looking at x-rays.  They didn't let us stay very long.  They have very strict rules about everything, which are meant to protect buyers from getting taken.  It's still Caveat emptor, though.  Just like betting at the track.  The more information you have, the better your chances for success.

We went to the barns and looked at the conformation of various horses that were about to be sold.  As a racing fan, I'm sure I'm not alone as someone who doesn't really know what to look for.  Did you see that horse's overstride?   Watch where the front hoof lands and make sure that the back hoof hits that mark or exceeds it.  That's a good sign.  Are the limbs too close together?  Bad sign.  Is the pastern at the right angle so that it can cushion the impact of running?

Fascinating.

These are some of the components of finding a winning racehorse.  Those who've been around horses for many years know this stuff by heart, but for others, it's a whole new world.  I'm one of those people.  And that's why I'm here.

I have a fairly good sense of pedigrees, but when it comes to physical issues, that's where I'm still a novice, and just spending a day at Keeneland was a fantastic education.  A guy like Baffert, with his experience and keen eye, can spot a nice one, no matter the price.  Me and my buddy, we were about ready to split a $10,000 Theatrical colt.  I swear he had a great turf pedigree, but no one seemed to care.  The price didn't budge from $10,000, and that is nothing when it comes to buying Thoroughbreds.

The thing is, you just never know.  A couple years from now, I could see that colt striding home to victory in the Breeders' Cup turf sprint.  Baffert's horse may never even make it to the track. 

If he does, at $500,000, he better win a few races.