Friday, July 30, 2010

Weekend Picks/TBA Challenge

I've got my picks in for the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance Saratoga/Monmouth challenge.  Some really tough stakes races this weekend.  Thank goodness it's play money.  Here's a link to the picks.  Read more selections at the TBA site.

Here goes my stab:

Diana (G1 1 1/8 Turf Saratoga):  A salty bunch this is!  Maybe Forever Together finally puts it back together here, but I can't take 2-1 or less on her after five straight defeats. Anyone else in this field could win, given the right setup.  I like the stretch out from a mile to 1 1/8 for Phola.  She's shown a pretty nasty kick into some slow paces.  And if she doesn't break slow like in her last race, I like her to run 'em down.  Pick:  Phola.

Jim Dandy (G2 1 1/8 Saratoga):  My first inclination was to back Fly Down in this race. I thought for sure he'd win the Belmont, and with a bit better trip, he probably would have.  But I imagine he'll be the favorite, and I'm not that sold on him yet.  A Little Warm has run five bang-up races in a row, from 6 furlongs to 1 1/8 miles, a distance many thought he wouldn't like.  He's versatile, gritty and has a race under his belt (the field's top Beyer at 105).  Pick:  A Little Warm.

Majestic Light (1 1/16 Monmouth):  I don't have a strong opinion about this race, except that I'll try to beat the favorite, Cool Coal Man.  Arson Squad, Omniscient, Indian Dance and Manteca all seem logical alternatives.  I'll give Arson Squad the edge on back class.  Pick:  Arson Squad.

Jersey Derby (1 1/16 Turf Monmouth):  There may be enough speed in here to bother Two Notch Road in his gate-to-wire bid.  But he gets the rail, he's the speed of the speed, he cuts back in distance after getting gassed going longer and he's 3 for his last 3 on the Monmouth Turf.  I'll take him at a decent price and hope he holds on.  Pick: Two Notch Road.

Regret (6f Monmouth):  I hated handicapping this race.  I have no idea who's going to win it.  Nobody stands out as being in top form.  Maybe Lady Alexander takes them gate to wire, but I doubt she gets an easy lead here.  Mistical Plan hasn't raced in 18 months.  Everyone else doesn't seem to mind 2nd or 3rd.  I'll take a swing with the Woodbine shipper who's never tasted dirt.  She's by Distorted Humor and has the field's best distance Tomlinson.  8-1 morning line.  Pick:  Carem Crescent.

Matchmaker (G3 1 1/8 Turf Monmouth):  Tough field.  I think the front end might be a little crowded, which left me wanting a horse with a nice closing kick.  Came down to Tottie and Cherokee Queen for me.  Both seem in top form.  Cherokee Queen faced half the Diana field two races back, got a little boxed and was still close on the wire in G1 company.  Pick:  Cherokee Queen.

Teddy Drone (6f Monmouth):  Another tough race to handicap.  I went back and forth on this one.  Charitable Man has the class, but he's never run 6 furlongs and hasn't raced in a year.  Riley Tucker has never run at Monmouth.  So, I'm tossing the two favorites.  I settled on the horses with good recent form on the track.  Wildcat Brief lost a little momentum in his last race and might've nipped Roaring Lion otherwise.  I'll take him.  Pick:  Wildcat Brief.

Oceanport (G3 1 1/16 Turf Monmouth):  Get Serious is one serious Monmouth turf runner.  In the United Nations, he had three other speed burners to deal with.  This time, he doesn't have much competition for the lead, and he's cutting back to a more preferable distance.  I don't think they'll catch him.  Pick:  Get Serious.

Haskell (G1 1 1/8 Monmouth):  First Dude probably gets the lead here, but he'll have company on the front end. I think there will be enough speed to set it up for a stalker or closer. I don't trust Ice Box to close from Philadelphia or wherever he'll be early on. You gotta respect Lookin' at Lucky's "winstinct," but I'll try to beat him with a non-Derby Trail entry.  Trappe Shot takes a big step up in class but his last two races are ultra-impressive.  He's won his last four by a combined 29 1/2 lengths, and he had plenty left in the tank on the stretchout to 1 1/16.  Those paired-up 105 Beyers stand out to me.  Pick:  Trappe Shot.

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